dendrite Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 3z SREFs are still pretty juicy. Mean SLP is a tick SE from 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Good luck. More often than not these storms trend farther north within 48 hours so you're still in the game. And to you also.. my friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 3z SREFs are still pretty juicy. Mean SLP is a tick SE from 21z. It sort of feels like we are slowly converging the models...though there is still enough spread between globals and mesoscale models that it means a lot for some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 You must have lost it... I have a bad feeling that SE Ma gets fooked on this one. NNE hasnt had a storm to call their own for a long damn time. Yeah I was going nuts, never seen anything like it before or since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 It sort of feels like we are slowly converging the models...though there is still enough spread between globals and mesoscale models that it means a lot for some areas. Yeah....looks like the EC ens pretty much hold serve too a hair inside the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 It sort of feels like we are slowly converging the models...though there is still enough spread between globals and mesoscale models that it means a lot for some areas. There has been much more significantly consistent modeling for this storm then prior systems this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 There has been much more significantly consistent modeling for this storm then prior systems this season. There's less interaction between vortmaxima and there isn't any big phasing going on...it mostly just about that shortwave that comes through the OH valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 There's less interaction between vortmaxima and there isn't any big phasing going on...it mostly just about that shortwave that comes through the OH valley. Its easier to account for 3 players on a court rather then 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 06z NAM is about the most weenie solution we'll probably see for the highest populated areas of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 06z NAM is about the most weenie solution we'll probably see for the highest populated areas of SNE. Was just about to go to bed then decided to see if the 6z NAM was out...continues it's insane solution of a major SNE crushing, from the little I just looked at it seems VERY similar to the 0z NAM...similarities are actually pretty stunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NAM not was wrapped up as 00z and a bit E, but still fairly amped and juicy. Eta looks similar with the sfc track from MVY to about PVC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 06z NAM is about the most weenie solution we'll probably see for the highest populated areas of SNE. Yea....thrown back soome booze and watch a slugs fest of Phils\Mets gm from 1979 on MLB netwk and I start getting txts from Earthlight lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Was just about to go to bed then decided to see if the 6z NAM was out...continues it's insane solution of a major SNE crushing, from the little I just looked at it seems VERY similar to the 0z NAM...similarities are actually pretty stunning. Its a tick E of 00z. It basically destroys all 4 of BOS/ORH/HFD/PVD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The NAM and Eta look eerily similar in all ways with this system at all levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The NAM and Eta look eerily similar in all ways with this system at all levels. Yeah you would almost think they went old school and ran the 06z NAM as the old school ETA-NAM rather than the WRF-NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The NAM and Eta look eerily similar in all ways with this system at all levels. My expectations are in check......I'm done trying the patience of you and Will lol I'll take 10" and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Its a tick E of 00z. It basically destroys all 4 of BOS/ORH/HFD/PVD It's just east enough to where this may actually spare some of the region from the dry slot and keep any mixing issues probably closer to the Cape...although I'm not sure what the thermal profile is as I haven't looked. This is just a sick track, closed storm just off to our east, this would have one helluva CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 2.11" jackpot between ORH and BOS thru 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 It's just east enough to where this may actually spare some of the region from the dry slot and keep any mixing issues probably closer to the Cape...although I'm not sure what the thermal profile is as I haven't looked. This is just a sick track, closed storm just off to our east, this would have one helluva CCB. I still think that the NAM is a hair too amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I think this is the first OP run that gives someone over 2"...nice 2" bullseye in metro west BOS area down to interior SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I still think that the NAM is a hair too amped. The NAM is definitely going bonkers here but I don't know...I think it could be onto something. Wasn't it the NAM (or was it GFS) before the Christmas storm that had the insane west solution and the whole error thing came up? I'm not sure how much truth exists here but I've heard before that the NAM usually has a better handle with negatively-tilted troughs...maybe it's a myth but it appears this is going to be one potent storm system with a pretty negatively tilted trough, with that said I would certainly favor a track that is more west than a track that is more east. If this solution were to verify though I wonder if we'd see some major dry slot issues actually as this thing really begins to intensify and wind up...could start sucking in some major dry air, plus if it occludes it may hinder moisture being fed into the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I think this is the first OP run that gives someone over 2"...nice 2" bullseye in metro west BOS area down to interior SE MA. Looks like even 2''+ for most of CT from HFD on east. Fun candy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I think this is the first OP run that gives someone over 2"...nice 2" bullseye in metro west BOS area down to interior SE MA. For archive purposes...since we're unlikely to see a solution this good again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The NAM is definitely going bonkers here but I don't know...I think it could be onto something. Wasn't it the NAM (or was it GFS) before the Christmas storm that had the insane west solution and the whole error thing came up? I'm not sure how much truth exists here but I've heard before that the NAM usually has a better handle with negatively-tilted troughs...maybe it's a myth but it appears this is going to be one potent storm system with a pretty negatively tilted trough, with that said I would certainly favor a track that is more west than a track that is more east. If this solution were to verify though I wonder if we'd see some major dry slot issues actually as this thing really begins to intensify and wind up...could start sucking in some major dry air, plus if it occludes it may hinder moisture being fed into the storm. No....there are no issues witht his run; it's perfect. I'd prefer it 25 miles N, but......I would lock this in if I could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 No....there are no issues witht his run; it's perfect. I'd prefer it 25 miles N, but......I would lock this in if I could. IDK...looking at 66 HR's that 700mb low track is awfully far west, especially for RI/SE MA and spots just to the west of the low center. Might not be a total dry slot but I could see some big time lightening of the precip. Perhaps I'm wrong...usually am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Well, I'm glad the dry slot issues here have seemingly been laid to rest and now I appear a hair to the N of ground zero because that is often corrected a bit N, via deformation come verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 IDK...looking at 66 HR's that 700mb low track is awfully far west, especially for RI/SE MA and spots just to the west of the low center. Might not be a total dry slot but I could see some big time lightening of the precip. Perhaps I'm wrong...usually am At 60h, the Cape might dryslot, thats about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 IDK...looking at 66 HR's that 700mb low track is awfully far west, especially for RI/SE MA and spots just to the west of the low center. Might not be a total dry slot but I could see some big time lightening of the precip. Perhaps I'm wrong...usually am WTF are you talking about....H7 traverses CC.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 This is what I was looking at...700mb RH profile doesn't exactly look stunning...major decrease too between 60-66 HR's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.