weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Florence...you knew that Exactly 2 weeks from today...I will be 2 hours into my flight (hopefully - barring any delays ) That's right. Well worth it! Italy is fabulous....enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 That's right. Well worth it! Italy is fabulous....enjoy! Thanks Jerry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Canadian seems a bit further west vs last night....didn't look at 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Just looked at 12Z and 0Z CMC is almost the same...if anything very slightly closer in but negligible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Canadian seems a bit further west vs last night....didn't look at 12Z. Neglible v 12z....i hate those maps but it looks about the same. It's over or just east of the BM... So that's RGEM/GGEM/NOGAPS/GFS/UK vs the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 but not as slow as the europeans Their verification scores earn the right to come out when they please....lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 So that's RGEM/GGEM/NOGAPS/GFS/UK vs the NAM. This is nothing new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Just looked at 12Z and 0Z CMC is almost the same...if anything very slightly closer in but negligible. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'm liking our chances at this point. Major storm and I think the effect is much wider than the globals are printing out tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Neglible v 12z....i hate those maps but it looks about the same. It's over or just east of the BM... So that's RGEM/GGEM/NOGAPS/GFS/UK vs the NAM. how bout the GFS ens. sir....they have been NW of the op ...no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Agreed still in a spot to give ct warning criteria snows, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 So presuming this is similar to what we will see, when does NCEP blow up the NAM and turn back on the NGM or something else? I mean it's worthless at this point presuming this is another ghostbuster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'm liking our chances at this point. Major storm and I think the effect is much wider than the globals are printing out tonight. I do like the fact the SREFs have been steadfast. I went 6"-12" tonight statewide (CT). I will be honest I had 6"-12"+ but took out the "+" after seeing the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GFS ensembles bring the low what appears to be close to over the bm. Moreover, the ens mean qpf is pretty generous. 1 inch + up to BOS-PVD and SE, 0.75 to the NH border in eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I think this is pretty typical for this type of storm. Mesoscale models will be more amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 So presuming this is similar to what we will see, when does NCEP blow up the NAM and turn back on the NGM or something else? I mean it's worthless at this point presuming this is another ghostbuster. I think there's so much noise as you go forward that 84 hours brings some crazy solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GFS ensembles bring the low what appears to be close to over the bm. Moreover, the ens mean qpf is pretty generous. 1 inch + up to BOS-PVD and SE, 0.75 to the NH border in eastern areas. 0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 0z? yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I think this is pretty typical for this type of storm. Mesoscale models will be more amped up. So you think the NAM may not be all that far-fetched? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 2nd half of storm from sh*tty graphics CMC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I do like the fact the SREFs have been steadfast. I went 6"-12" tonight statewide (CT). I will be honest I had 6"-12"+ but took out the "+" after seeing the GFS Yeah I'm very confident of warning snowfall widespread...we still have to wait and see if the 12" type stuff gets to be more of a threat. But this is just like 12/9/05 in the respect that the SREF/NAM were really amped up while the globals were def more SE. The mosescale models proved to be closer to reality in that one. I think they will be closer to reality in this one, but probably a little too wound up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The 00z GFS looks great! I repeat, the 00z GFS looks great! It trended significantly toward the 00z NAM solution from the 18z run. Notably sharper trough. It is VERY close to keeping the H5 low intact, but fails in the Gulf of Maine. I'd actually place the surface low a little NW of the GFS depiction based on the 500mb pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 at this point, going 4-8" for the record for all of CT and into much of MA. some areas will likely see 8"+, but want to see more data overnight and early tomorrow before putting out a more hardcore map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yeah I'm very confident of warning snowfall widespread...we still have to wait and see if the 12" type stuff gets to be more of a threat. But this is just like 12/9/05 in the respect that the SREF/NAM were really amped up while the globals were def more SE. The mosescale models proved to be closer to reality in that one. I think they will be closer to reality in this one, but probably a little too wound up. I'd love for the SREFs to verify. NAM not so much but the front end snow would be so great it might be worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 This looks much better to me vs OP GFS in terms of where the .5 line may setup.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yeah I'm very confident of warning snowfall widespread...we still have to wait and see if the 12" type stuff gets to be more of a threat. But this is just like 12/9/05 in the respect that the SREF/NAM were really amped up while the globals were def more SE. The mosescale models proved to be closer to reality in that one. I think they will be closer to reality in this one, but probably a little too wound up. do you think the BL will torch like on the 0z NAM for SE sections, will? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 do you think the BL will torch like on the 0z NAM for SE sections, will? Its probably too wound up, so I would doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Well good night folks......big week ahead and I actually have to prepare a major talk to give to a big audience Tuesday. How am I going to do that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Well good night folks......big week ahead and I actually have to prepare a major talk to give to a big audience Tuesday. How am I going to do that? Prepare in between model runs obviously Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Well good night folks......big week ahead and I actually have to prepare a major talk to give to a big audience Tuesday. How am I going to do that? LOL, good luck and good night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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