40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yeah some evidence of some feedback/qpf piling...I'd focus more on the movement of the .5 line than anything else. More precip should be piled NW. That run would jackpot you, I think. I agree with the bolded, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Ryan goes 6-12 for Connecticut as of this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 This looks fishy to me, what is causing the models other than the NAM to push the vorticity out with the Low instead of wrapping it in with the 500mb low center? If you look at hour 54 and 60 you can clearly see this process take place. It just doesn't make sense. I would think in this situation it would wrap up and capture the low instead of push it out to sea. Here's the map from the storm 2 days ago. Note how similar it actually is. (remember though this one IS different in terms of avaialble moisture etc).... This was the "hit" model, Notice how the lobe is pointing almost to NYC. Now look at the GFS where it's pointing to ACK. That literally will be the simple difference between who gets what. The north/northwest solutiosn only occur with the trajcetory still being more N vs E as it comes to the Delmarva and Jersey. Otherwise if it's like the GFS we get what you see. The scary thing is for us up here, we did this the other day and it kept slipping east right up to the bitter end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I got 12.5" Right.....because your measurement is representative of what actually took place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The qpf distribution and amt this run is very similar to 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 That was BS, too. Those type of totals were a little closer in to the city and immediate N shore. Just like you supposedly beat me by a couple of inches in 2008-09, too. Will wouldn't even include your total in his map. Last OT - I agree with that one (2008-2009)...I wasn't even measuring at my house the second half of that season. I was basing my totals off what my dad said (usually exaggerated) and corroborating them with your totals. This season will be the same...I'm leaving for Italy 1/23 and won't be back until 5/15. I'll put an asterisk next to the 2008-2009 total to appease you and next to this year's total once I get back (which will be rounded - estimated) On topic...like where I sit with this one right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 That run would jackpot you, I think. I agree with the bolded, though. The link blob down here and off the coast...those usually go bye-bye closer in and spread the wealth back NW. You and I have always talked about it and it almost always seems to take place. I figure a track just outside the BM, give or take 20-25 miles. The main issue won't be the MSLP it will be the mid level centers which yada yada yada...the 0z GFS actually shot it out even more easterly this run than the 18z, which was worse than the 12z. Please stop! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 FWIW, burbank's jackpot (12+) runs in a 20-30 mile wide strip from 40/70 Benchmark to ORH_wxman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 We all know the drill deja vu i love it the chase its' all in the chase this storm will deliver you guys are to nervous some of us wil be disappointed . Radar look at it she means business gents someone will get plastered . i always wonder how in a blizzard you can measure snow unless your smoking some funky cigaretttes see ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Last OT - I agree with that one (2008-2009)...I wasn't even measuring at my house the second half of that season. I was basing my totals off what my dad said (usually exaggerated) and corroborating them with your totals. This season will be the same...I'm leaving for Italy 1/23 and won't be back until 5/15. I'll put an asterisk next to the 2008-2009 total to appease you and next to this year's total once I get back (which will be rounded - estimated) On topic...like where I sit with this one right now. What I would do if I were you is look at surrounding COOPs....there is one in Reading; I'll give you the link to the site when I get my laptop back. I would honestly guess that you had about 13-14".......no doubt you have more than I do this year, though.....2009, no way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Could have some fun winds with this system too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 i guess Atlanta metro is a mess.. 11:12 p.m.: All roads in Paulding County are now considered impassable, the sheriff's office said. 11:06 p.m.: I-75 northbound near the 120 loop is blocked, Capt. Herb Emory with WSB Radio reported. http://www.ajc.com/news/atlanta-weather-snow-ice-799746.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The link blob down here and off the coast...those usually go bye-bye closer in and spread the wealth back NW. You and I have always talked about it and it almost always seems to take place. I figure a track just outside the BM, give or take 20-25 miles. The main issue won't be the MSLP it will be the mid level centers which yada yada yada...the 0z GFS actually shot it out even more easterly this run than the 18z, which was worse than the 12z. Please stop! I think inside....maybe even ACK. FWIW, burbank's jackpot (12+) runs in a 20-30 mile wide strip from 40/70 Benchmark to ORH_wxman That is what I think right now, but not sure I'd be confident enough to illusrate it quite that voraciously.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 What I would do if I were you is look at surrounding COOPs....there is one in Reading; I'll give you the link to the site when I get my laptop back. I would honestly guess that you had about 13-14".......no doubT have more than I do this year, though.....2009, no way. Yeah...send me the link. And that 12/26 measurement was next to impossible to take. Part of my yard was bare, while snow drifted halfway up the front fence. I could have been off by a couple of inches easily...just took a rough average. I miss the days of heavy wet easy to measure snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 What I would do if I were you is look at surrounding COOPs....there is one in Reading; I'll give you the link to the site when I get my laptop back. I would honestly guess that you had about 13-14".......no doubT have more than I do this year, though.....2009, no way. BTW I think the jackpot would be NW of me. Probably somewhere between me and Bob and Weathafella. I'm worried about a shift E in later runs - want to see that stop at 500mb at 6z/12z but a good 6-12 seems probable from Will to Kev to Ginx to boston etc. If I had to put a lean on which way the line may go, I'd say 65% it moves E/SE in time vs 35% the other way. There's not going to be an uber sharp cutoff this time so areas to the west will do fine too. 6-12 here as well. First very rough guess. If it doesn't shear to crap there will be 8-16" type amounts easily I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Barry Burbank everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Ray...check out my signature...made some changes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I think inside....maybe even ACK. That is what I think right now, but not sure I'd be confident enough to illusrate it quite that voraciously.... If I'm looking at the right maps the Euro was maybe 50 miles west of tonights GFS. I'd say those are the goal posts through 60 hours. Ray BTW, even after I think it stays well outside of ACK. I think it's probably going to run a similar course as the other nights but just starting a little NW. It'll wobble as the centers adjust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yeah...send me the link. And that 12/26 measurement was next to impossible to take. Part of my yard was bare, while snow drifted halfway up the front fence. I could have been off by a couple of inches easily...just took a rough average. I miss the days of heavy wet easy to measure snowstorms. I hear ya....it was very difficult...sry to be so abrasive towards you. My sister was convinced that we had like 17" My advise is that when you have a storm like that, sample different property because the orientation of your own may either render it prone to drifting (exagerate measurements) or resistent to it (minimize measurements)...that is what I do. I'll take a ton of measurements in my property, the common area and even sneak into a neighbor's..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 FWIW, burbank's jackpot (12+) runs in a 20-30 mile wide strip from 40/70 Benchmark to ORH_wxman I was smack dab in the middle of that SW of Will, it will probably move though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I think NAM will be intriguing as we get closer inside it's supposed wheelhouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Ray...check out my signature...made some changes! I think all of those look good, but I'd go with ~55" last year.....you likely beat me by a hair....I'lll check the Reading COOP when I get my laptop back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I think NAM will be intriguing as we get closer inside it's supposed wheelhouse. Based on the last three week's it's wheelhouse is init + 3 hours. Are you seeing the GGEM yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I think NAM will be intriguing as we get closer inside it's supposed wheelhouse. I wasn't aware it had a wheelhouse. j/k...should be a fun final snowstorm of Winter '10-11 for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Way out in fantasy land but we have a fairly vicious snowstorm and cold when our January thaw's supposed to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I wasn't aware it had a wheelhouse. j/k...should be a fun final snowstorm of Winter '10-11 for me. Where THE FOOK are you going? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Based on the last three week's it's wheelhouse is init + 3 hours. Are you seeing the GGEM yet? Those Canadians are slow as molasses..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Where THE FOOK are you going? Florence...you knew that Exactly 2 weeks from today...I will be 2 hours into my flight (hopefully - barring any delays ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Those Canadians are slow as molasses..... but not as slow as the europeans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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