MJHUB Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 7:10 PM, snowman21 said: Those don't exist anymore. really? didn't know that, use to love those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 7:11 PM, NW CONNECTICUT said: yeah, excuse my IMBY'ing but with a high in the upper 20s and with .75-1" QPF it's hard to believe we won't end up with nearly a foot. Its all going to depend on the snow growth....I've had 18 to 1 ratios with a temp near 30F and 8 to 1 ratios with a temp of 20F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 7:08 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I liked the 06z run better. This is 2004-05, displaced about 30-40 miles to the NNW......Brockton winter as opposed to Carver. I don't see a screw zone like the last storm. In fact, I think you could be in a decent spot for banding potential. I know meso screw zones can happen, but imo you seem in better shape for this storm, although you did eek out 12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 7:03 PM, ORH_wxman said: CON get about 0.70-0.75" Thanks Will On 1/10/2011 at 7:06 PM, dendrite said: Split the difference or so I guess: ~0.75. The NAM has 0.75" for CON and the GFS is 0.61". So I think we're honing in. I'd say 6-10" looks good. Sounds good, I would love 6+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I wonder who gets blizzard warnings...maybe Plymouth, Barnstable, Bristol Counties in MA and Newport and Washington in RI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 7:13 PM, ORH_wxman said: Its all going to depend on the snow growth....I've had 18 to 1 ratios with a temp near 30F and 8 to 1 ratios with a temp of 20F. hopefully this storm won't involve those snow pellets (though we're not dealing with a parcel of warm air aloft to such a great degree) and those tiny flakes (in the last blizzard) that take forever to stack up...any insight into this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 7:11 PM, NW CONNECTICUT said: yeah, excuse my IMBY'ing but with a high in the upper 20s and with .75-1" QPF it's hard to believe we won't end up with nearly a foot. There is much more to it than your surface temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 7:11 PM, NW CONNECTICUT said: yeah, excuse my IMBY'ing but with a high in the upper 20s and with .75-1" QPF it's hard to believe we won't end up with nearly a foot. I feel good about 10-12" in most of western CT fwiw. Higher end south of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 7:14 PM, grinch1989 said: I feel good about 10-12" in most of western CT fwiw. Higher end south of course Upton's most recent write-up calls for 6"-12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 7:14 PM, grinch1989 said: I feel good about 10-12" in most of western CT fwiw. Higher end south of course http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 7:13 PM, ORH_wxman said: Its all going to depend on the snow growth....I've had 18 to 1 ratios with a temp near 30F and 8 to 1 ratios with a temp of 20F. Is that something that's difficult to forecast? Say I were to google it to try to learn...would I google "dendritic growth"? On 1/10/2011 at 7:14 PM, Kbosch said: There is much more to it than your surface temp. Thanks, still trying to soak this stuff up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 7:14 PM, Boston-winter08 said: hopefully this storm won't involve those snow pellets (though we're not dealing with a parcel of warm air aloft to such a great degree) and those tiny flakes (in the last blizzard) that take forever to stack up...any insight into this? Snow growth should be much better in this system for most as we have deeper saturation and better lift at pretty much all levels for most of the storm. Last storm worked in some drier air above 700mb for a time, and the overall lift wasn't as intense as this system looks to have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 7:13 PM, OSUmetstud said: I wonder who gets blizzard warnings...maybe Plymouth, Barnstable, Bristol Counties in MA and Newport and Washington in RI? I was looking att the Blizzard Product on the HPC site and it was based of the 09z SREF's Looked like the Cape and Islands and maybe extreme coastal Plymouth up to Scituate made it into any type of blizzard %'s. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/impactgraphics/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 6:25 PM, Happy Valley said: I don't think Spfld area has had a storm over 10" since 07/08, correct? Springfield has not had a true double digit storm since the feb 06 storm that produced anywhwere from ten to twenty inches from nw to e/se over the spfd area but if you go back to a true area wide event of well over a foot its presidents day 03 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 FWIW here is essentially the Euro verification...was the most recent update on that last system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 7:13 PM, ORH_wxman said: Its all going to depend on the snow growth....I've had 18 to 1 ratios with a temp near 30F and 8 to 1 ratios with a temp of 20F. Will, any comparisons to Jan 2005, save for the winds, duration? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 7:18 PM, NW CONNECTICUT said: Is that something that's difficult to forecast? Say I were to google it to try to learn...would I google "dendritic growth"? Thanks, still trying to soak this stuff up. You'll find a lot of PP and PDF documents on it. I think this storm will have good snowgrowth for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 3:30 PM, Mica Vim Toot said: Another disaster for N. Maine. All winter snow is being wasted on dilletantes who think snow's purpose is to be sculpted in to perfect snowbanks. Suburban and city tyros who squeal delightedly when their snow cancels classes at the community college nearby. Snow is lifes blood up here. Thousands of businesses are dependent upon it for their sustenance and it has not appeared at all. An unprecedented economic disaster is unfolding up here in N. Maine. True hardship is upon us here because of this horrible pattern. S. New England's snow is squandered there. It's a decorative nuisance. An embellishment for bus route weenies. Lack of snow for them is psychic pain only. No snow for us is economic disaster. Your celebrations in S. New England are as thoughtless as your snow is pointless. I write this as an ex-Cape Codder/Westonian. Vim Toot Tough sh**. I write this as Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 7:17 PM, nutmegfriar said: Upton's most recent write-up calls for 6"-12". good call for right now just in case things go not as planned the low end covers that,also wonder if we go to warnings at 5pm and do I dare ask? any Blizzard warnings for some? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 on the 12z NAM BUFKIT....there are blizzard type conditions in Plymouth...a bit under in Worcester and and right on the edge in Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 7:20 PM, CoastalWx said: You'll find a lot of PP and PDF documents on it. I think this storm will have good snowgrowth for most. FWIW there is a 100% saturation contour at H7 along the ma/ri/ct border extending into srn VT and NH at hr 48. This is why I think GC and srn NH and the srn tip of ME could do pretty well, despite what qpf says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 7:13 PM, OSUmetstud said: I wonder who gets blizzard warnings...maybe Plymouth, Barnstable, Bristol Counties in MA and Newport and Washington in RI? I doubt they'll hoist blizzard warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 7:21 PM, OSUmetstud said: on the 12z NAM BUFKIT....there are blizzard type conditions in Plymouth...a bit under in Worcester and and right on the edge in Boston. Cool! -- FWIW I think we decided the ARW killed it last time versus the NMM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 7:20 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Tough sh**. I write this as Ray. :lmao: I feel for those up there who depends on snow...but I'm not going to apologize for a phenomenon that I have no control over. The whole weather "morals" thing is a tired argument on the forums going back years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 7:23 PM, messenger said: Cool! -- FWIW I think we decided the ARW killed it last time versus the NMM Vs NMM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 7:20 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Tough sh**. I write this as Ray. Wow, that post was brutal. With a viewpoint like that he doesn't deserve any snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 7:13 PM, CoastalWx said: I don't see a screw zone like the last storm. In fact, I think you could be in a decent spot for banding potential. I know meso screw zones can happen, but imo you seem in better shape for this storm, although you did eek out 12". I'm not complaining...just expressing an opinion. I will not get over a foot if the cf never makes it out of Boston and away from the immediate N shore. This is a rule of thumb that I have recently began to implement after years of observation, here. I'm sure you can look through the Kocin book and find exceptions, but it works more often than not. Jan 2005 was an exception, but that event was not of a normal scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 7:23 PM, ORH_wxman said: :lmao: I feel for those up there who depends on snow...but I'm not going to apologize for a phenomenon that I have no control over. The whole weather "morals" thing is a tired argument on the forums going back years. LOL at Ray I am going to be one greedy muther****a with this storm. I want to be in the jackpot and I feel pretty confident about that right now. Screw everybody else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HinghamBoss Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 We have gotten somewhere around 23-24" in Cambridge this year so far...pretty remarkable to think we could be pushing 35-40" after this storm. It feels good to be back in MA after 4 years in NYC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 7:23 PM, Zeus said: I doubt they'll hoist blizzard warnings. its get some decent signals...big 1045 mb higher over the plains...980-985 mb low just inside the benchmark...rapid deepening inducing a strong isallaboric component. We'll see I guess. I think some coastal areas should have them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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