cpickett79 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 3:57 AM, CT Rain said: wow GFS is awfully far east lol well hopefully GFS ENS Are nw of op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yep, large swath of 5-10'' on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Remember what Tip said earlier that the NAM could do better in these situations On 1/10/2011 at 4:01 AM, Boston-winter08 said: I still think the NAM COULD be on to something, though there is a low chance, especially considering the pattern this winter thus far that said, the slp position on the NAM would almost certainly involve a mix out to 495 (like fox25 is calling for now, with heaviest snow worcester on west) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 70% reduction in QPF imby. lol Oh, well, it was fun for an hour and a half. Good night Austin Texas wherever you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 4:01 AM, NorEastermass128 said: You beat me Dec 22-23 by 0.5" I am just closer to the best band in the 12/26 storm as I'm 10 miles SE of you...Wilmington is just a relative snow hole. BOS sits at 25.5" right now. Me...just 18.7". I know exactly where you are and Woburn did not receive 16" in that blizzard...sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 well hopefully this nudges north for boston at least the globals have been steadfast around the BM, theyve been fantastically consistent with this event for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 4:02 AM, W1WFG said: Like Washington political reporters, still trying to find the next Watergate, and fame. Everyone wants to call the next February '78 -- thirty-plus years on, both groups are still trying. big deal posting accum maps IMO there aren't calling for anything crazy. highest is 8-14 swath which seems reasonable given all guidance for some area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cannae Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 3:57 AM, weathafella said: Nice snowstorm on the GFS and UKMET but I admit the NAM was kind of fun. Yeah, either way we're looking very good for at least warning criteria snowstorm. Hard to complain too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 3:55 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: The GFS probably won't be great for us verbatim, but the good news is that the truth will lie in between. In other words, the SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Well the GFS may not be the eye candy the NAM was for most of us but I thought it was still pretty damn good, pretty solid hit for much of the region, as far as track goes probably somewhere in between the NAM/GFS but I think this run was very encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Well I guess John was saying NAM may be onto something but it would be hard to just throw out the rest of the globals. Maybe a more amped solution and NAM will fall back towards the rest and the end will be somewhere there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 4:04 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I know exactly where you are and Woburn did not receive 16" in that blizzard...sorry. We didn't... 15". Daily Times reported 16". I'm on the Woburn/Winchester line and Winchester came in with 17.3". Too bad it's the CP's winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shawnmov Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 So, basically 0Z GFS look very similar to the 12Z earlier, at least in terms of precip, to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 actually looking further into qpf amounts, the 0z gfs gives GON about .8" qpf...and the .5" line goes all the way back to the CT/NY border. not bad really, with decent ratios probably a modest 6-10" lollipop 12" storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 4:01 AM, Boston-winter08 said: I still think the NAM COULD be on to something, though there is a low chance, especially considering the pattern this winter thus far that said, the slp position on the NAM would almost certainly involve a mix out to 495 (like fox25 is calling for now, with heaviest snow worcester on west) I give it about a .05% chance to be honest. If it is I'll tip my hat to TT. It's really a shame this is the farce that has become the NAM. I asked and I think nobody answered because there's no answer...the NAM goes postal with energy at 48 hours and I think it's a glaring error for some reason. The RGEM/UK/GFS and we'll soon find out about the Euro all seem to agree. It's a benchmark track and we have to be careful we don't have issues with the mid level centers again. There's going to be a pretty good inverted trough with this one too I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 4:04 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I know exactly where you are and Woburn did not receive 16" in that blizzard...sorry. Do you have photographic evidence?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 4:05 AM, DomNH said: In other words, the SREF. And the EURO and EURO ENS mean.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 4:05 AM, DomNH said: In other words, the SREF. I really like the consistency of the SREF and the EURO ATM...like you said, swath of 5-10 from Concord, NH to Orange (south and east at least to the canal) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bch2014 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Total QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Euro has been pretty dead on several runs. Ride it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 This looks fishy to me, what is causing the models other than the NAM to push the vorticity out with the Low instead of wrapping it in with the 500mb low center? If you look at hour 54 and 60 you can clearly see this process take place. It just doesn't make sense. I would think in this situation it would wrap up and capture the low instead of push it out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 3:59 AM, nutmegfriar said: Any p-type issues on the CT shore? as of right now we are alright if we keep this storm around the benchmark. if it comes up toward the east end we will mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 4:05 AM, weathafella said: Well I guess John was saying NAM may be onto something but it would be hard to just throw out the rest of the globals. Maybe a more amped solution and NAM will fall back towards the rest and the end will be somewhere there? I certainly wouldn't discount the NAM's solution as far as track goes, looks like this system will have an extreme negative tilt to it...so I'd think more west than east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 This could produce far in excess than the qpf indicates... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 4:07 AM, weathafella said: Euro has been pretty dead on several runs. Ride it. How does it compare to this run of the GFS in terms of QPF and track? On 1/10/2011 at 4:08 AM, Max said: This looks fishy to me, what is causing the models other than the NAM to push the vorticity out with the Low instead of wrapping it in with the 500mb low center? If you look at hour 54 and 60 you can clearly see this process take place. It just doesn't make sense. I would think in this situation it would wrap up and capture the low instead of push it out to sea. Been happening over and over this year. As a met explained - it's trying to smash into heights over the E/SE that won't knock down, so speeds are ridiculous and they're getting fired out east like a baseball out of a pitching machine. Even with the 0z it's too early to say it's happening again, the NAM has been horrible lately and has done this same thing many times to difference scales but that doesn't mean it couldn't be right this time. I drew a map the other night of almost the exact same situation at 5h. The whole thing is north this time but the poitn was the same, if the 5h vorticity comes up through NJ heading to SE NY that's good for the central/norther folks...if it's heading out ENE or E in later runs thats bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 4:05 AM, NorEastermass128 said: We didn't... 15". Daily Times reported 16". I'm on the Woburn/Winchester line and Winchester came in with 17.3". Too bad it's the CP's winter! That was BS, too. Those type of totals were a little closer in to the city and immediate N shore. Just like you supposedly beat me by a couple of inches in 2008-09, too. Will wouldn't even include your total in his map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Well, I'm off to bed early tonight...can't wait to see what I wake up to...been good model watching with you guys tonight...think snow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 4:11 AM, weathafella said: This could produce far in excess than the qpf indicates... Yeah some evidence of some feedback/qpf piling...I'd focus more on the movement of the .5 line than anything else. More precip should be piled NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 never did i ever dream that it would be come so damn hard and next to impossible to get a storm into the GOM, lol its like someone built a wall south of nova scotia....but its coming down after this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 4:11 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: That was BS, too. Those type of totals were a little closer in to the city and immediate N shore. Just like you supposedly beat me by a couple of inches in 2008-09, too. Will wouldn't even include your total in his map. I got 12.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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