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Coastal Storm Potential - Jan 11-12 II


Baroclinic Zone

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  On 1/10/2011 at 3:50 AM, Max said:

Why does everyone always want to bash on the Connecticut River Valley, it's not like there are 2000' mountains on either side of it in Ct. Ryan if you could, is the Ct Valley really a screw zone more often than not or is this just a myth?

myth lol

It's been perpetuated the last few years by just some awfully unlucky storms for us

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  On 1/10/2011 at 3:54 AM, ctsnowstorm628 said:

gfs givin the old b slap! loving it! nam solution was a little too amped for southern areas anyway... :)

Yeah appears so. I want to throw out again because I knwo the thread is flying...the RGEM and GFS are very similar through 48 in my opinion pending the better res/color RGEM maps.

The NAM just turns into a shi* show every run 36/42 hours.

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  On 1/10/2011 at 3:50 AM, Max said:

Why does everyone always want to bash on the Connecticut River Valley, it's not like there are 2000' mountains on either side of it in Ct. Ryan if you could, is the Ct Valley really a screw zone more often than not or is this just a myth?

Agreed.

There are so many variables in the Valley. When you get up towards Greenfield/Turners Falls the topography is a lot tighter and not subject to the same dynamics as lets say Springfield.

According to the Greenfield DPW the 40 year average for annual snowfall here is 54". Hardly a screw zone.

It's convenient to blame the Valley but honestly most of SW NH and S. VT have their share of bad winters and that is certainly not due to any sort of Ct River Valley snow hole. Or is it? - lol.

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  On 1/10/2011 at 3:51 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GFS slaps the NAM down, as we thought; EURO to follow suite.

well i don't mind if the gfs slaps the nam but there is more room for a less amped less QPF System then us getting royally screwed via the nam moving more NW... so i don't want this to really move SE more than a hair.

0z nam looked damm fine to me. clown maps should give me 18

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  On 1/10/2011 at 3:58 AM, cpickett79 said:

well i don't mind if the gfs slaps the nam but there is more room for a less amped less QPF System then us getting royally screwed via the nam moving more NW... so i don't want this to really move SE more than a hair.

0z nam looked damm fine to me. clown maps should give me 18

We wouldn't get 18" if that soloution verified.....the mid level centers were too far west.

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  On 1/10/2011 at 3:58 AM, cpickett79 said:

well i don't mind if the gfs slaps the nam but there is more room for a less amped less QPF System then us getting royally screwed via the nam moving more NW... so i don't want this to much further SE.

0z nam looked damm fine to me. clown maps should give me 18

I still think the NAM COULD be on to something, though there is a low chance, especially considering the pattern this winter thus far

that said, the slp position on the NAM would almost certainly involve a mix out to 495 (like fox25 is calling for now, with heaviest snow worcester on west)

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  On 1/10/2011 at 3:58 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I love how your amounts are always equal to or greater than mine. :lol:

4" ahead of me this year.

You beat me Dec 22-23 by 0.5" :lol:

I was just closer to the best band in the 12/26 storm as I'm 10 miles SE of you...Wilmington is just a relative snow hole. BOS sits at 25.5" right now. Me...just 18.7".

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  On 1/10/2011 at 3:46 AM, Happy Valley said:

I don't get these bold snow maps being issued by the Boston mets 2 days out. Just asking to get burned imo.

Like Washington political reporters, still trying to find the next Watergate, and fame.

Everyone wants to call the next February '78 -- thirty-plus years on, both groups are still trying.

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