Baroclinic Zone Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Time for a new thread for the 00z runs. Old thread http://www.americanw.../page__st__1400 Been away all day and all major models point to a track just inside the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'm not sure there's a vorticity product for the GEFS but I'm thinking it's probably a little east of the 12z. My logic in being concerned is: 12z NAM Big Hit...was west with the vorticity 12z GFS nice hit but a little more confined was SE of Cape Cod with vorticity 18z NAM shifts east almost on top of the 12z GFS and shifts everything accordingly. 18z GFS shifted the vorticity faster which has sometimes (not always) a flag it's about to jump it yet again. It's stronger this run so it compensates but I'd argue it may be too far NW with the QPF at face value. The GEFS shifted it SE from the OP. In a normal year that's NBD, so we will see. 12z NAM to 18z NAM was a sizeable shift east in the QPF and other fields 12z GEFS and 18z GEFS ditto. Watch the bouncing ball of voriticty because I think nothing is off the table after watching the models have a miserable time handling jumping m/l centers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Time for a new thread for the 00z runs. Been away all day and all major models point to a track just inside the BM. Let the good JuJu flow......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 (posted on the other thread that is being closed out) I'm not sure there's a vorticity product for the GEFS but I'm thinking it's probably a little east of the 12z. My logic in being concerned is: 12z NAM Big Hit...was west with the vorticity 12z GFS nice hit but a little more confined was SE of Cape Cod with vorticity 18z NAM shifts east almost on top of the 12z GFS and shifts everything accordingly. 18z GFS shifted the vorticity faster which has sometimes (not always) a flag it's about to jump it yet again. It's stronger this run so it compensates but I'd argue it may be too far NW with the QPF at face value. The GEFS shifted it SE from the OP. In a normal year that's NBD, so we will see. 12z NAM to 18z NAM was a sizeable shift east in the QPF and other fields 12z GEFS and 18z GEFS ditto. Watch the bouncing ball of voriticty because I think nothing is off the table after watching the models have a miserable time handling jumping m/l centers. -- Ski MRG way to keep it on topic. If you've got a problem with what I say dispute it from a weather perspective. I'm just pointing out what's very obvious from 12z to 18z on just the american models. For the reading challenged I've said about twenty times it's just a commentary on what's seemingly played out today. And yeah I liked the 10+ inch storm down here three weeks ago that most thought was OTS. I liked the one that nailed Bob and those guys too. This one is further north which is good news and has more moisture, but...well you'll figure it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 As for my forecast map, 12" - 18" was just the next interval. I probably should have put 12"+ instead. I do NOT think anyone will see 18" -- the storm moves through way too quickly for that. A couple jackpots of 15"-16" are possible though. I'm not sure why some have difficulty fathoming an 18" snowfall under the best deformation band, within a 12 hr period.....it's not that out of the ordinary in systems of this ilk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 High bust potential..... Well, 8-14" is quite a spread and this system's track has been stable and there is continuity between models and their respective ens. Given that there is already a general buzz about this in the general population and no doubt pressure to getthe info out it seems safer to do this with this storm than others we've seen recently. Ballsy but not as wild a gamble as it might seem IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Half hour until the end of the dead zone. Hopefully SnowMan has fired up the accordion and is playing "Let It Snow" loudly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Well, 8-14" is quite a spread and this system's track has been stable and there is continuity between models and their respective ens. Given that there is already a general buzz about this in the general population and no doubt pressure to getthe info out it seems safer to do this with this storm than others we've seen recently. Ballsy but not as wild a gamble as it might seem IMHO. I'd rather start low and ramp up then vise versa, More credibility......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'm not sure why some have difficulty fathoming an 18" snowfall under the best deformation band, within a 12 hr period.....it's that out of the ordinary in systems of this ilk. violently agree, sometimes I wonder how it ever snows heavy in SNE with these guys thoughts. Real deal folks real deal,. ML this and ML that, Bull****e Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 (posted on the other thread that is being closed out) I'm not sure there's a vorticity product for the GEFS but I'm thinking it's probably a little east of the 12z. My logic in being concerned is: 12z NAM Big Hit...was west with the vorticity 12z GFS nice hit but a little more confined was SE of Cape Cod with vorticity 18z NAM shifts east almost on top of the 12z GFS and shifts everything accordingly. 18z GFS shifted the vorticity faster which has sometimes (not always) a flag it's about to jump it yet again. It's stronger this run so it compensates but I'd argue it may be too far NW with the QPF at face value. The GEFS shifted it SE from the OP. In a normal year that's NBD, so we will see. 12z NAM to 18z NAM was a sizeable shift east in the QPF and other fields 12z GEFS and 18z GEFS ditto. Watch the bouncing ball of voriticty because I think nothing is off the table after watching the models have a miserable time handling jumping m/l centers. -- Ski MRG way to keep it on topic. If you've got a problem with what I say dispute it from a weather perspective. I'm just pointing out what's very obvious from 12z to 18z on just the american models. For the reading challenged I've said about twenty times it's just a commentary on what's seemingly played out today. And yeah I liked the 10+ inch storm down here three weeks ago that most thought was OTS. I liked the one that nailed Bob and those guys too. This one is further north which is good news and has more moisture, but...well you'll figure it out. Messenger, way to have a sense of humor. I fear you take things too seriously. Also your constant caveats like "for the reading challenged" seem to imply that some how you feel there are folks here that just can't quite wrap their heads around your astonishingly briliant insights. Simply not the case. Lighten up, you might live longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Has there been any discussion of gravity wave potential yet? Looks very interesting IMO early Wednesday morning from the northern NJ coast to LI into southeast NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Messenger, way to have a sense of humor. I fear you take things too seriously. Also your constant caveats like "for the reading challenged" seem to imply that some how you feel there are folks here that just can't quite wrap their heads around your astonishingly briliant insights. Simply not the case. Lighten up, you might live longer. No I think there's people that take things out of context. I could say what I think which is that the UKMET is largely way east, the GEFS/NAM just trended significantly east and the 18z NOGAPs trended east too even though it wasn't a hit to begin with but I'm for some reason afraid of offending people over weather. Why dont you leave the comedy to Seinfeld and we stick to the weather during the storm? I also wonder why there is no talk of the potential for an inverted trough again this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 You can cut the tension in this thread with a knife. Deep breaths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Has there been any discussion of gravity wave potential yet? Looks very interesting IMO early Wednesday morning from the northern NJ coast to LI into southeast NE Those things don't interest me...I like no nonsense during my snow events...just light wind, good dendrites, and a CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 You can cut the tension in this thread with a knife. Deep breaths. T minus 16 min..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 No I think there's people that take things out of context. I could say what I think which is that the UKMET is largely way east, the GEFS/NAM just trended significantly east and the 18z NOGAPs trended east too even though it wasn't a hit to begin with but I'm for some reason afraid of offending people over weather. Why dont you leave the comedy to Seinfeld and we stick to the weather during the storm? I also wonder why there is no talk of the potential for an inverted trough again this time. 12z NOGAPS has this type of feature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southshorewx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Why is everyone so cranky? Lighten up. Snow and more snow. Thats what we want right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Has there been any discussion of gravity wave potential yet? Looks very interesting IMO early Wednesday morning from the northern NJ coast to LI into southeast NE I posted the banding site, very very volatile with some definite folds in the isobars. Great stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 No I think there's people that take things out of context. I could say what I think which is that the UKMET is largely way east, the GEFS/NAM just trended significantly east and the 18z NOGAPs trended east too even though it wasn't a hit to begin with but I'm for some reason afraid of offending people over weather. Why dont you leave the comedy to Seinfeld and we stick to the weather during the storm? I also wonder why there is no talk of the potential for an inverted trough again this time. What constitutes a trend to you? 1 run, 2, 3? What of the GGEM that went west? What about the Euro that went west as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 12z NOGAPS has this type of feature Every model has some inverted trough signature at that time. It's simply a result of the decaying inland low as the best upper level support shifts to the coast. Miller B-ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Those things don't interest me...I like no nonsense during my snow events...just light wind, good dendrites, and a CCB. I gravity waves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 12z NOGAPS has this type of feature 18z NOGAPs shifted a nudge east with the features but there's still a decent trough signature. CMC would have it too, UK clearly does. May or may not come into play depending on which camp is more correct. What's interesting is the RGEM would appear to be further north than the 18z NAM...keeps the s/w a bit more compact which would allow it to get further north. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/18_054_R1_north@america_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_048.jpg Why is everyone so cranky? Lighten up. Snow and more snow. Thats what we want right? Sorry about that, I just think it's bad taste to drag anything that's over and buried into new threads. No good comes of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Wow...tough reading...lots of folks pizzed off. Relax! We have some fresh snow, it's cold out. I almost wish the pattern stunk because in a good move, I bought my daughter a new phone and now have phone envy of my own child. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 This thread needs a "Do Over!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 T minus 16 min..... Coming back from MD, we passed a billboard in CT that my wife found worse than your name. It was from one of the casinos and it read: "we have the loosest slots in CT". Okay--here's hoping for slightly west (oops, did I jsut say that? Good luck with the runs everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 This thread needs a "Do Over!" Top 10 favorite movies: City Slickers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Also....way too much over analysis of an 18Z run. Big picture......globals haven't changed. NAM kind of farted but we've seen that countless times before. Let's see what the SREFs and 0Z guidance has before we declare a trend. Remember 18Z doesn't have full data to my knowledge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 due to the underperformer of the the recent "blizzard", I'm not getting my hopes up again. I'll believe it when when the snow is past the 10" mark on my ruler. sorry, but that's the bare min for me to get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 My guess before the 00z suite is the 21z SREFs tone down a bit and the further east solutions like the Canadian and Ukie come NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Coming back from MD, we passed a billboard in CT that my wife found worse than your name. It was from one of the casinos and it read: "we have the loosest slots in CT". Okay--here's hoping for slightly west (oops, did I jsut say that? Good luck with the runs everyone! I'm in her head.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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