dilly84 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 euro showing .35 across central ohio on the 12z. heaviest snow for me and you steve falls VTA(Newark) THU 18Z 20-JAN -1.1 -9.9 1017 66 99 0.03 544 530 FRI 00Z 21-JAN -2.7 -10.5 1013 87 91 0.22 536 526 FRI 06Z 21-JAN -6.5 -12.1 1013 83 82 0.10 523 513 ZZV THU 18Z 20-JAN -0.6 -9.6 1017 61 96 0.01 545 531 FRI 00Z 21-JAN -2.1 -9.6 1012 85 92 0.19 537 528 FRI 06Z 21-JAN -5.1 -12.4 1012 83 94 0.15 524 514 FRI 12Z 21-JAN -11.1 -18.2 1015 76 7 0.01 524 512 FRI 18Z 21-JAN -8.2 -19.3 1017 52 6 0.01 530 517 CMH THU 18Z 20-JAN -1.6 -9.7 1018 71 99 0.04 544 530 FRI 00Z 21-JAN -3.2 -10.8 1013 89 90 0.24 535 525 FRI 06Z 21-JAN -7.6 -11.6 1013 83 72 0.07 522 512 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuckeyeSam Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Heaviest stuff of the day falling now. Looks like the band of moderate to heavy snow is coming right up 71. Be nice if it stayed there for a couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 BTW, dont look now.. Monster on tuesday? TUE 12Z 25-JAN -2.9 -4.0 1019 88 88 0.05 544 528 TUE 18Z 25-JAN -0.9 -4.4 1017 88 92 0.18 542 528 WED 00Z 26-JAN -1.4 -6.7 1016 97 87 0.21 538 525 WED 06Z 26-JAN -2.3 -7.2 1015 97 87 0.07 535 523 WED 12Z 26-JAN -3.9 -9.7 1015 92 97 0.05 534 522 WED 18Z 26-JAN -1.0 -9.1 1018 68 81 0.03 538 524 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 BTW, dont look now.. Monster on tuesday? TUE 12Z 25-JAN -2.9 -4.0 1019 88 88 0.05 544 528 TUE 18Z 25-JAN -0.9 -4.4 1017 88 92 0.18 542 528 WED 00Z 26-JAN -1.4 -6.7 1016 97 87 0.21 538 525 WED 06Z 26-JAN -2.3 -7.2 1015 97 87 0.07 535 523 WED 12Z 26-JAN -3.9 -9.7 1015 92 97 0.05 534 522 WED 18Z 26-JAN -1.0 -9.1 1018 68 81 0.03 538 524 wow is that the euro.... .6? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 wow is that the euro.... .6? .65 Had to recount. Yes EURO and Im happy to have it on our side. TUE 00Z 25-JAN -2.1 -6.1 1023 91 94 0.06 545 527 TUE 06Z 25-JAN -5.2 -4.6 1022 84 89 0.00 546 528 TUE 12Z 25-JAN -2.9 -4.0 1019 88 88 0.05 544 528 TUE 18Z 25-JAN -0.9 -4.4 1017 88 92 0.18 542 528 WED 00Z 26-JAN -1.4 -6.7 1016 97 87 0.21 538 525 WED 06Z 26-JAN -2.3 -7.2 1015 97 87 0.07 535 523 WED 12Z 26-JAN -3.9 -9.7 1015 92 97 0.05 534 522 WED 18Z 26-JAN -1.0 -9.1 1018 68 81 0.03 538 524 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 .65 Had to recount. Yes EURO and Im happy to have it on our side. TUE 00Z 25-JAN -2.1 -6.1 1023 91 94 0.06 545 527 TUE 06Z 25-JAN -5.2 -4.6 1022 84 89 0.00 546 528 TUE 12Z 25-JAN -2.9 -4.0 1019 88 88 0.05 544 528 TUE 18Z 25-JAN -0.9 -4.4 1017 88 92 0.18 542 528 WED 00Z 26-JAN -1.4 -6.7 1016 97 87 0.21 538 525 WED 06Z 26-JAN -2.3 -7.2 1015 97 87 0.07 535 523 WED 12Z 26-JAN -3.9 -9.7 1015 92 97 0.05 534 522 WED 18Z 26-JAN -1.0 -9.1 1018 68 81 0.03 538 524 as long as you are aware...that WILL change. But you're right, having the most bullish model be the euro, is eyecandy at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 as long as you are aware...that WILL change. But you're right, having the most bullish model be the euro, is eyecandy at least. For better or for worse though, it could get better with time. One thing about the euro is it is usually not a bullish model, and usually raises amounts the closer it gets. It could be supressed, or it could come a tad further north and nail us. Good thing is it is only 4 days out of model watching so we dont have to sit and wait a week. And the model phase falls on the weekend for the most part lol.. Back to this storm, still havent gotten the bigger flakes, just the fine stuff coming down fast.. We went to really light snow for about 5 minutes and I thought for sure that is when the big flakes were coming but negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Been snowing nicely for an hour now..i would say 2 inches so far!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Buckeye, question.. todays euro upped the totals for todays storm, but look when it shows the heaviest amount falling.. How is that supposed to happen when the back edge will be pushing into western ohio within the next 2-3 hrs shows heaviest at FRI 0z and 6z THU 18Z 20-JAN -0.6 -9.6 1017 61 96 0.01 545 531 FRI 00Z 21-JAN -2.1 -9.6 1012 85 92 0.19 537 528 FRI 06Z 21-JAN -5.1 -12.4 1012 83 94 0.15 524 514 FRI 12Z 21-JAN -11.1 -18.2 1015 76 7 0.01 524 512 FRI 18Z 21-JAN -8.2 -19.3 1017 52 6 0.01 530 517 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northernohio Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Dilly what does the Euro show for CLE/TOL?? much appreciated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I have always been in OH... I just don't have the time to post much. Ill try to poke my head in here more often for you guys. Do drop in more often. Beers are on Buckeye and Dilly. It would be great to get input from a local MET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Dilly what does the Euro show for CLE/TOL?? much appreciated CLE For todays storm .19 Next tuesday .45 TOL today .08 Next tuesday .26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northernohio Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 thanks Dilly. How much snow you up to there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Euro is looking like a outlier in the extended right now, do not see that much. Have seen it a few times this winter, and then the other models have caught up with it.Christmas storm for example. It never showed a big hit for OH while the other models did somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 thanks Dilly. How much snow you up to there? Close to 2"... Heye Buckeye, I asked you a question last page back incase you missed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 OK..now i am enjoying this..not a big storm..but i will take 6 of these over a 12 inch storm any day!! No more grass showing..Looking like winter today,finally!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 OK..now i am enjoying this..not a big storm..but i will take 6 of these over a 12 inch storm any day!! No more grass showing..Looking like winter today,finally!! Im trying to understand how the heaviest snow is supposed to hit us 0z and 6z, when back edge is coming through central IN now.. unless this thing shifts NE and the southern snow comes this way, which isnt happening. EDIT: I guess it is beginning to pivot. I suppose I could see how east Central/eastern Ohio could see the heaviest returns from the south then. Hell idk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Im trying to understand how the heaviest snow is supposed to hit us 0z and 6z, when back edge is coming through central IN now.. unless this thing shifts NE and the southern snow comes this way, which isnt happening. Strange..if you zoom in..it does look like it's moving NE..but the cold front of course is moving E-SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Local mets saying it will be over by midnight... Maybe the models are wrong in that regard.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Local mets saying it will be over by midnight... Maybe the models are wrong in that regard.. It has always been around midnight from what i have been hearing since yesterday..I say if it snows like it is till midnight..5-6 inches is not out of the question!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 It has always been around midnight from what i have been hearing since yesterday..I say if it snows like it is till midnight..5-6 inches is not out of the question!! not according to 12z runs.. euro shows heaviest snow from 18z to 0z and moderate from 0z to 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Got our answer Steve MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0039 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0236 PM CST THU JAN 20 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY REGION CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 202036Z - 202330Z BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY REGION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...WITH RATES UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR EXPECTED. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 71 CORRIDOR FROM CNTRL OHIO INTO NWRN KY....WITH AREAS OF LIGHTER SNOW ACROSS S-CNTRL OHIO. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN BY DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AHEAD OF A TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. SNOWFALL RATES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE STRONG ASCENT PROGRESSES EASTWARD WHILE BEING AUGMENTED BY INCREASING 700-MB FRONTOGENESIS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON INDICATE THAT THE ASCENT WILL COINCIDE WITH RELATIVELY DEEP AND SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES TO PROMOTE EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH. ADDITIONALLY... MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK SLANTWISE INSTABILITY BY 00Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OHIO...WHICH WILL FURTHER SUPPORT MESOSCALE BANDING AS THE ACTIVITY SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS SUCH...BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...WITH RATES UP TO ONE INCH PER HOUR EXPECTED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dustin Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Im trying to understand how the heaviest snow is supposed to hit us 0z and 6z, when back edge is coming through central IN now.. unless this thing shifts NE and the southern snow comes this way, which isnt happening. EDIT: I guess it is beginning to pivot. I suppose I could see how east Central/eastern Ohio could see the heaviest returns from the south then. Hell idk. That really nice banding that set up basically along I-71 was enhanced from low-level convergence due to sfc. deformation. As the storm progresses, the convergence should become orientated more S to N as the secondary races forward and the heavy banding will pivot. With that said, I am pretty sure most of Columbus is seeing or has already seen their heaviest snowfall rates (esp. the western suburbs). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dustin Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Got our answer Steve MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0039 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0236 PM CST THU JAN 20 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY REGION CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 202036Z - 202330Z BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY REGION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...WITH RATES UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR EXPECTED. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 71 CORRIDOR FROM CNTRL OHIO INTO NWRN KY....WITH AREAS OF LIGHTER SNOW ACROSS S-CNTRL OHIO. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN BY DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AHEAD OF A TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. SNOWFALL RATES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE STRONG ASCENT PROGRESSES EASTWARD WHILE BEING AUGMENTED BY INCREASING 700-MB FRONTOGENESIS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON INDICATE THAT THE ASCENT WILL COINCIDE WITH RELATIVELY DEEP AND SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES TO PROMOTE EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH. ADDITIONALLY... MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK SLANTWISE INSTABILITY BY 00Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OHIO...WHICH WILL FURTHER SUPPORT MESOSCALE BANDING AS THE ACTIVITY SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS SUCH...BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...WITH RATES UP TO ONE INCH PER HOUR EXPECTED. Yea, that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 That really nice banding that set up basically along I-71 was enhanced from low-level convergence due to sfc. deformation. As the storm progresses, the convergence should become orientated more S to N as the secondary races forward and the heavy banding will pivot. With that said, I am pretty sure most of Columbus is seeing or has already seen their heaviest snowfall rates (esp. the western suburbs). What about over here at mine and steves areas. I know CMH was supposed to get their heaviest this afternoon, but our locations not until tonight. So what are you saying Locations over around me and steve could be in this for a while? From PIT(my nws office) .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --RECENT SURFACE AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGRESSES EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SNOW HAS MOVED INTO OHIO AND WILL CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL INDICATING THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOWS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS BUFKIT PROFILES AND SREF OMEGA AND FRONTOGENESIS INDICATE THE MOST INTENSE LIFT. SNOW WILL LIGHTEN TO SHOWERS BY TOMORROW MORNING AS THE LOW TRANSITIONS TO THE COAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 18z gfs for us steve FRI 00Z 21-JAN -3.2 -8.8 1011 97 100 0.20 537 528 FRI 06Z 21-JAN -7.0 -11.5 1011 98 80 0.12 524 515 FRI 12Z 21-JAN -12.3 -19.1 1015 94 6 0.01 524 512 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dustin Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I could def. see the 700mb frontogenesis catching up to the best sfc. forcing and some really impressive banding taking off. The concern for you guys will be if the best lift makes it that far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I could def. see the 700mb frontogenesis catching up to the best sfc. forcing and some really impressive banding taking off. The concern for you guys will be if the best lift makes it that far north. We will see, really all thats left to do is watch it lol..Radar is underdoing it though. Finally getting into the dendrite growth zone. Flake size is increasing slowly, so that should make for faster accumlations as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dustin Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 We will see, really all thats left to do is watch it lol..Radar is underdoing it though. Finally getting into the dendrite growth zone. Flake size is increasing slowly, so that should make for faster accumlations as well. Yep. Time to crack open a beer, sit back and enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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