dilly84 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST. FORECAST WILL FIRST FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER S/WV ENERGY ORIGINATING OUT OF THE PAC NW WILL MERGE WITH A DIGGING UPR LVL TROF MOVING FROM S CNTRL CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IF THIS OCCURS...WEAK SFC LOW MAY DEVELOP OVER THE TN VLY ON THURSDAY...PUSHING NE TOWARD THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOW TO OUR REGION. IF THIS DOES NOT MATERIALIZE ...THERE STILL WOULD BE ENOUGH UPR LVL SUPPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A DECENT SNOWFALL. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE HWO PRODUCT. WITH AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW PULLING OFF TO THE NE THURSDAY NIGHT...ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP IN FROM THE NW...USHERING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The models are following your lead. Bring it. Any word from JB on this? i just checked...no update since his big dog vid today. In the vid he seems to be favoring the ggem. Says it's a known bias amongst models, (not just the euro), to want to hold too much energy back in the sw. He seems to like the idea of a good hit from KS thru PA. Says the only downfall will be it's a quick mover, but ratios (yea, i ain't buying it), would compensate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 i just checked...no update since his big dog vid today. In the vid he seems to be favoring the ggem. Says it's a known bias amongst models, (not just the euro), to want to hold too much energy back in the sw. He seems to like the idea of a good hit from KS thru PA. Says the only downfall will be it's a quick mover, but ratios (yea, i ain't buying it), would compensate. Thanks for the update. Good to see JB on board... I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 CLE hinting at the storm potential. Hopefully the 12z runs will trend better. NEXT WAVE IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE SLOWLY COMING TO GRIPS THAT THIS SHORT WAVE IS NOT TRIVIAL AND THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR A GENERAL SNOWFALL. THERE WILL BE NO GULF INFLOW THOUGH SO BAROCLINIC PROCESS ALONE WILL BE AT WORK. I SUSPECT THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT IN THE SNOWBELT INTO FRIDAY. ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WARNINGS IN THE SNOWBELT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Temp is up to 37. Thankfully we've managed to avoid the heavier rain as it moved NW of here into SE MI. The snowpack is preserved for now. Looks like the front pushes through in the early evening. Despite some rain with the frontal passage we should retain most of the snowcover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Temp is up to 37. Thankfully we've managed to avoid the heavier rain as it moved NW of here into SE MI. The snowpack is preserved for now. Looks like the front pushes through in the early evening. Despite some rain with the frontal passage we should retain most of the snowcover. Its not even heavy rain here, more annoying light rain. Ill have to do a core sample, but Im guessing the snowpack is merely getting more water in it, while sinking a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Its not even heavy rain here, more annoying light rain. Ill have to do a core sample, but Im guessing the snowpack is merely getting more water in it, while sinking a bit. Looks like the RN/SN line is on your doorstep. Should mitigate any further melting. We have at least 8 more hours of above freezing temps. The remaining snowpack will be pretty dense once it refreezes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Looks like the RN/SN line is on your doorstep. Should mitigate any further melting. We have at least 8 more hours of above freezing temps. The remaining snowpack will be pretty dense once it refreezes. Yesterday you could see ice as far as the eye would allow. Today it's gone. If anything, this brief thaw will allow for some better enhancement and LES later in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Yesterday you could see ice as far as the eye would allow. Today it's gone. If anything, this brief thaw will allow for some better enhancement and LES later in the week. Good to hear there is open water showing. Hopefully the southerly winds are piling the ice up on the north shore. 12z models were rather disappointing. Shame on me though for getting caught up in the hype in the storm thread... when in reality this was an extreme long shot. Its just not looking good for decent synoptic snow this winter. Seasonal trends and the ongoing pattern just don't t favor this area. I could really care less about a rogue synoptic storm in late Feb or March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Snowpack taking a major hammering today. Down to around an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Posted this in the storm thread, but it will get lost quickly: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 CLE sheds some unbelievable insight on the storm potential in their AFD. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. STILL ON THE EDGE ABOUT HOW MUCH SNOW WILL OCCUR. IT COULD BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER SOME OF THE AREA. THE GFS/GEM IS STILL WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR THE EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES. KIND OF WENT WITH A COMPROMISE WITH THE DIFFERENT MODELS. THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 CLE sheds some unbelievable insight on the storm potential in their AFD. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. STILL ON THE EDGE ABOUT HOW MUCH SNOW WILL OCCUR. IT COULD BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER SOME OF THE AREA. THE GFS/GEM IS STILL WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR THE EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES. KIND OF WENT WITH A COMPROMISE WITH THE DIFFERENT MODELS. THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT. I hope youre being sarcastic lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I hope youre being sarcastic lol Yes, I was. I wish that office would do some forecasting instead of modelology. Most of the weenies on this board can do that. They simply regurgitate what the models show, or side with the HPC like clock work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Marshall mcpeek said 1-3 maybe 2-4 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Foggy anywhere else tonight? I wouldn't be shocked to see some fog advisories go up. Foggier than heck over here in coshocton county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Foggy anywhere else tonight? I wouldn't be shocked to see some fog advisories go up. Foggier than heck over here in coshocton county. Foggy with light snow falling here. Visibility well under .5 mile. Good to see the snow again. 4-5 inch snow pack in place. Should be solid again by tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Foggy with light snow falling here. Visibility well under .5 mile. Good to see the snow again. 4-5 inch snow pack in place. Should be solid again by tomorrow morning. Lucky you. 38 and rain here still. Lost most of our snow pack today. Down to an inch with a bunch of bare spots.. pretty ugly really lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Well, I hope I didn't jinx us...I put snow blades on my jeep today. Snow pack took a huge hit here too....bare grass most everywhere with a few spots of snow. Hopefully we will change that in a couple of days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dustin Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Foggy with light snow falling here. Visibility well under .5 mile. Good to see the snow again. 4-5 inch snow pack in place. Should be solid again by tomorrow morning. Still looks like rain from the window of my hotel room here in the Warren / Newton Falls area. What part of NE Ohio do you reside? I am up here all week for work so I will be rooting for the NE crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Still looks like rain from the window of my hotel room here in the Warren / Newton Falls area. What part of NE Ohio do you reside? I am up here all week for work so I will be rooting for the NE crew. Looks like alot of places are seeing freezing drizzle. I live 20 minutes east of Cleveland. You are about 45 minutes away from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Marshall mcpeek said 1-3 maybe 2-4 lol marshall mcpeek is a martha stewart wannabe. weather is just to get his on-camera foot in the door Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Pixie dust snow falling now...has already coated the roads. Hopefully an auspicious sign for the upcoming event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Looks like alot of places are seeing freezing drizzle. I live 20 minutes east of Cleveland. You are about 45 minutes away from here. Ironically after all the hyping of yesterdays non existent freezing rain, today I wake up to quite a glazing of freezing drizzle. Looks like we get to freshen up the brown snow with 2 inches tomorrow. How thrilling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I'll say the CLE areas sees a general 2-3 inches from this storm. Not looking promising unless the storm can linger longer just to our east. Also, should any of the "junk" the models are showing to the North preventing the storm from coming north not materialize, amounts could be higher. Looks like a solid event for the I-70 and south corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Ironically after all the hyping of yesterdays non existent freezing rain, today I wake up to quite a glazing of freezing drizzle. Looks like we get to freshen up the brown snow with 2 inches tomorrow. How thrilling. Yeah, its a constant freezing mist/drizzle out there with a few flakes mixed in. With the low clouds temps stayed up last night. Looks like 29 was the low. We will probably be watching a virga storm on the radar for most of the day tomorrow. Looks like will just get clipped on the NW fringe. 2-3 is a good bet. Still a good 4-5 inches on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Good luck with the snow everyone.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 TWC says 2-4" south of I70 and around an inch or two north of there LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 TWC says 2-4" south of I70 and around an inch or two north of there LOL Accuwithered gives me 2.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Accuwithered gives me 2.6" Yea. It uses the gfs and 10:1 ratios for the local forecasts.. .26 on the 18z gfs 2.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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