Northernohio Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 dilly if u dont mind me asking what does accuwx pro showfor northern ohio? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Who's right? Check out the CLE and BUF discussions re: next weeks storm potential. CLE says models in agreement. BUF... not in agreement. I'm still not sold on a northern track for a number of reasons -- seasonal trends, current snowpack, and, as we move later into winter the storm track tends to move further south. CLE - LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW A BIT MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF A SURFACE LOW ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. EACH OF THEM NOW TAKING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING SOME WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. AS THIS WARM AIR RIDES UP OVER THE COOL SURFACE TEMPERATURES THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DRY AIR TO LIMIT AMOUNTS BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR NOW HAVE MENTIONED A MIX OF SNOW OR VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR THE MONDAYNIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING TIME PERIOD. BUF - IT DOESN/T TAKE LONG FOR MODELS TO DIVERGE...AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHICH SURFACE LOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY EARLY NEXT WEEK. 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE SHOWS AN UNUSUALLY LARGE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS...WITH ONLY ABOUT A THIRD WELL IN LINE WITH THE OPERATIONAL RUN. THE 12Z GFS BASICALLY KEYS ON A STRONGER LOW ACROSS THE LAKE REGION...WITH A WEAKER COASTAL LOW. THIS IS GENERALLY OPPOSITE OF PREVIOUS CONSENSUS...THOUGH PREVIOUS RUNS ALSO SHOWED A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD AS WELL. BASED ON THE RELIABILITY OF THE EUROPEAN...SUPPORT FROM THE GGEM AND SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...AND THE FACT THAT THERE/S A GOOD SNOWPACK IN PLACE IN THE MID ATLANTIC...FEEL COASTAL DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE PERHAPS A BIT MORE LIKELY. SO WILL LEAN TOWARD A STRONGER COASTAL LOW...WHILE FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR TUESDAY REMAINS LOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northernohio Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I will believe Buffalo over Cleveland anyday. Their discussions are usually much more imformative and forecasts seem to be accurate a lot of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 dilly if u dont mind me asking what does accuwx pro showfor northern ohio? I use bufkit. Not accuwx pro.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Yea he said yesterday, I believe, that he basically called for an apps runner. Youd have to ask Buckeye, he's a subscriber JB was pretty vague in his vid today. Basically saying that the eastcoast gets rain and the snow will be further west mentioning central PA back thru the midwest. Sounds like he doesn't want to make a forecast for a couple more model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 JB was pretty vague in his vid today. Basically saying that the eastcoast gets rain and the snow will be further west mentioning central PA back thru the midwest. Sounds like he doesn't want to make a forecast for a couple more model runs. Thanks for the update. Meh... Looking at last nights models this is becoming a non-event. Brief warm up with light precip followed by cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Thanks for the update. Meh... Looking at last nights models this is becoming a non-event. Brief warm up with light precip followed by cold. At thisb point I am rooting for a nonevent. At least we'll keep some snow cover. It is either going to be rain or nothing more than likely. Ill take the nothing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I'm thinking a mixed bag start to brief rain (especially south of I-70) and then some snow on the back side. Warm surface temps should preclude much accumulation though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I'm thinking a mixed bag start to brief rain (especially south of I-70) and then some snow on the back side. Warm surface temps should preclude much accumulation though. Honestly I'm thinking showers for most of OH. Best shots for snow is north of 224.. but I think they have precip issues too.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I'm thinking a mixed bag start to brief rain (especially south of I-70) and then some snow on the back side. Warm surface temps should preclude much accumulation though. This doesn't look like a 50 degree wash out... that's for sure. The warmest it gets on the 12z GFS is 33 -- for less than 24hrs. Not a blowtorch at all. The funny things is that this storm isn't even onshore yet and people are taking each model run as verbatim. Still lots of time to go with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 This doesn't look like a 50 degree wash out... that's for sure. The warmest it gets on the 12z GFS is 33 -- for less than 24hrs. Not a blowtorch at all. The funny things is that this storm isn't even onshore yet and people are taking each model run as verbatim. Still lots of time to go with this. Well, I was talking about down here. Maybe up in NE Ohio you will only get to 33 idk. The going forecast from models as of yesterday morning still doesn't look too far off. Looks like a very light mix event with surface temps above freezing down here. Pretty much a non-event... 0z Euro shows several inches from a southern system on Thursday though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Well, I was talking about down here. Maybe up in NE Ohio you will only get to 33 idk. The going forecast from models as of yesterday morning still doesn't look too far off. Looks like a very light mix event with surface temps above freezing down here. Pretty much a non-event... 0z Euro shows several inches from a southern system on Thursday though yep....later next week is the new target date. The mon tues event is trash. Looks like the ggem is trying to usher in the arctic front with a nice wave thurs and fri. Not sure if we'll lose much snowpack mon-tues, but usually if it's a light rain event and it's cold enough it shouldn't take too big of a hit. Hopefully we can add to it later week before the blast comes in. OV is looking like ground zero for that cold shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Yea. Boring until Thursday.. Not buying the storm yet, however. The way models have flip flopped I refuse to get excited over anything outside of a day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Yea. Boring until Thursday.. Not buying the storm yet, however. The way models have flip flopped I refuse to get excited over anything outside of a day or two. should listen to me dilly I said a week out before this past weeks storm that I felt good about it...and that verified. I said a week ago about mon/tues storm that it would be a bust for us...and that looks to verify. so now, I'm saying watch out, I feel good about thurs-fri of next week, even though the gfs is silent. I like the set up with that cold air diving in to our immediate west and something coming out of the sw. Should at least lay down a fresh snowpack before the arctic tundra sets in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 15, 2011 Author Share Posted January 15, 2011 should listen to me dilly I said a week out before this past weeks storm that I felt good about it...and that verified. I said a week ago about mon/tues storm that it would be a bust for us...and that looks to verify. so now, I'm saying watch out, I feel good about thurs-fri of next week, even though the gfs is silent. I like the set up with that cold air diving in to our immediate west and something coming out of the sw. Should at least lay down a fresh snowpack before the arctic tundra sets in. OK..I am no expert..but i have a gut feeling that the las 2 weeks of Jan. and Feb. are going to rock!! IMO..Remember..all our snow last year came at the end of Jan. and Feb..30 inches in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 i know the radar says otherwise, but it just has that look out there like it wants to start hammering. Very similar to right before a snowstorm, breezy, low thick dark cloud deck. Makes me hungry for some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 should listen to me dilly I said a week out before this past weeks storm that I felt good about it...and that verified. I said a week ago about mon/tues storm that it would be a bust for us...and that looks to verify. so now, I'm saying watch out, I feel good about thurs-fri of next week, even though the gfs is silent. I like the set up with that cold air diving in to our immediate west and something coming out of the sw. Should at least lay down a fresh snowpack before the arctic tundra sets in. I want it to tap into the gulf and bring a monster.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I want it to tap into the gulf and bring a monster.. im not being greedy....i just want to make sure we have a snowcover before the arctic hounds invade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 im not being greedy....i just want to make sure we have a snowcover before the arctic hounds invade The way this winter has gone I'm being greedy lol. I want a 8-12" snow.. Bring on a March 08 repeat, just add 40mph sustained winds lol... I'm going overboard I know.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 One of my best friends live in NE NJ and he hates snow....I told him I would gladly trade places. I would take even half of what he has gotten. But, perhaps your right Steve, maybe the last half of winter will be better for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 We can only hope for a repeat of last year lol.. that was a blast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Busted on temps here today. Got up to 21. Had a high of 26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Busted on temps here today. Got up to 21. Had a high of 26. Not doing too bad here. I only forecast during the week, but I had 25 for today as of Friday afternoon and we're up to 24 at kcmh. Just noticed we really are gonna warm up fast at 850mb. -11C today to +1C tomorrow? 850 winds under 20mph the whole time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 0z nam. Hr 30 above freezing. Hr 36 below freezing. Hr 42 above freezing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 0z gfs appears to give decent back end snows for this next event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 850's stay close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Freezing rain advisory for most of Northern OH. We've had sun most of the day so temps climbed quickly. Clouds rolling in just in time to prevent the temps from dropping. Doubt we'll see much ice... temps usually don't have much trouble rising with SE winds. We should be able to keep most of the snowpack in place as it only looks to go to 33-34 for less than 24 hours. Precip should be light as well. Time to look ahead to the "Buckeye" storm for the end of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Freezing rain advisory for most of Northern OH. We've had sun most of the day so temps climbed quickly. Clouds rolling in just in time to prevent the temps from dropping. Doubt we'll see much ice... temps usually don't have much trouble rising with SE winds. We should be able to keep most of the snowpack in place as it only looks to go to 33-34 for less than 24 hours. Precip should be light as well. Time to look ahead to the "Buckeye" storm for the end of the week. Per my sig, still waiting for a good system snow yet this winter. But, I'll take a refresher snow after a slight compact melt event tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Per my sig, still waiting for a good system snow yet this winter. But, I'll take a refresher snow after a slight compact melt event tomorrow. It's coming this week 18z NAM was juicy. I don't think its impossible that this comes a little further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 yep....later next week is the new target date. The mon tues event is trash. Looks like the ggem is trying to usher in the arctic front with a nice wave thurs and fri. Not sure if we'll lose much snowpack mon-tues, but usually if it's a light rain event and it's cold enough it shouldn't take too big of a hit. Hopefully we can add to it later week before the blast comes in. OV is looking like ground zero for that cold shot. The models are following your lead. Bring it. Any word from JB on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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