OHSnow Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Wow. The most recent runs of the RUC, which had been showing the heaviest snow over Cleveland, now have a dry slot there. They're now showing one band of snow from Toledo northwest into central Michigan bending northeast out over central Lake Huron and another area of snow associated with the actual storm in far eastern Ohio and western PA with a dry slot in between. This is a comparison of the 12z 16 hour RUC and the 10z 18 hour RUC both valid at 4z tonight. The storm is a lot farther southeast for such a small time frame. 2 hours ago it was forecast to be over Jamestown, NY at that time. Now, it's forecast to be over State College, PA!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Wow. The most recent runs of the RUC, which had been showing the heaviest snow over Cleveland, now have a dry slot there. They're now showing one band of snow from Toledo northwest into central Michigan bending northeast out over central Lake Huron and another area of snow associated with the actual storm in far eastern Ohio and western PA with a dry slot in between. This is a comparison of the 12z 16 hour RUC and the 10z 18 hour RUC both valid at 4z tonight. The storm is a lot farther southeast for such a small time frame. 2 hours ago it was forecast to be over Jamestown, NY at that time. Now, it's forecast to be over State College, PA!!! As you mentioned yesterday, I wouldn't put too much stock on the exact model depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 This is almost a perfect scenario set up for CLE. A juicy late winter storm, with 850 winds aligned perfectly over Lakes Huron and Erie which are now ice free. A shift in either direction still allows for a decent enhancement set up. I think it's always easy to get caught up in the ridiculous QPF amounts, but this storm should perform quite similarly to the storm 2 Fridays ago. Yeah, this is looking more and more like a heavy dump for the central lakeshore on east. With a 300 - 280 wind flow there will be a long fetch across the lake... with plenty of moisture and lift. Marginal temps will be the only inhibiting factor. Even if the storm moves east or west... this area will be in the enhancement zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheezemm Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 It will be interesting to watch the critical thickness maps and how fast they move east. If things changeover sooner, this could get really interesting. Any mention of whether or not we'll have a good chance at seeing TSSN? I'm about 10 miles South of Akron, would like it to be spring, but if it's going to snow give me 6"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheezemm Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Winds have also changed direction from a SE flow this morning to a NW flow and temps have fallen from 47-45 since 7am. We still have a long way to go, a little skeptical on whether or not the warm ground will play a bigger impact on cutting down accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Winds have also changed direction from a SE flow this morning to a NW flow and temps have fallen from 47-45 since 7am. We still have a long way to go, a little skeptical on whether or not the warm ground will play a bigger impact on cutting down accumulations. Temps are dropping as the winds have shifted. I don't think the warm ground will be a factor. The ground is still cold, if not frozen in shaded areas just beneath the surface. Initially the snow will melt on contact but it won't take long for the snow to begin accumulating... especially if the bulk of it comes at night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Temps are dropping as the winds have shifted. I don't think the warm ground will be a factor. The ground is still cold, if not frozen in shaded areas just beneath the surface. Initially the snow will melt on contact but it won't take long for the snow to begin accumulating... especially if the bulk of it comes at night Night will help. Interesting to see the 12z shift to the east with the heavy axis. I still think 6-10" is a good call. But anytime the lake comes into play there's potential for bonus. This will be an incredibly picturesque snowfall. If CLE ends up with a 70"+ season, I will be amazed. Depending on how this plays out, my view of the winter combined with the storm 2 weeks ago, will be changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 RGEM is at least 1.5-2" from CLE to Ashtabula. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 The latest BUF meso has at least 1" for the north coast. What will be good about this storm is long duration. It will likely snow for a good 15 hours. Too many of our past busts have been quick movers. This of all, has the best potential of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 The latest BUF meso has at least 1" for the north coast. What will be good about this storm is long duration. It will likely snow for a good 15 hours. Too many of our past busts have been quick movers. This of all, has the best potential of the season. The BUF meso models dump on the lakeshore area. Looks like a solid 1.5". I noticed in the other thread that the euro had 1.19 for CLE. Every model has at least 1" so 6-10 seems like a reasonable call. This storm definitely has the potential to be the largest of the season. Time to sit back and see if it actually happens. Seems like a complicated set-up so my confidence level is not high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Temp down to 37. Looks like the moisture train has set-up and will keep rolling in the from the southeast. There is going to be some serious flooding as most rivers are at flood level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Speedskater Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 For the 30 hour Lake Erie Surface Wind Forecast see: http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ofs/leofs/fore_wind.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 The BUF meso models dump on the lakeshore area. Looks like a solid 1.5". I noticed in the other thread that the euro had 1.19 for CLE. Every model has at least 1" so 6-10 seems like a reasonable call. This storm definitely has the potential to be the largest of the season. Time to sit back and see if it actually happens. Seems like a complicated set-up so my confidence level is not high. And here comes the warning. It's a very complex situation. I have learned to take QPF with a grain of salt, and agree with CLE's 6-10" amounts. By 7 am we will know if those crazy 12" amounts will verify, but conservatism wins for the most part around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Where is it all coming from? Radar isn't ovrly impressive. Have the small band in southern OH but nothing behind it and everything else is well to the east of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 And here comes the warning. It's a very complex situation. I have learned to take QPF with a grain of salt, and agree with CLE's 6-10" amounts. By 7 am we will know if those crazy 12" amounts will verify, but conservatism wins for the most part around here. Good call on the QPF. My confidence is very low... but it is growing. 6-10 seems reasonable. The precip band is parked over eastern OH and doesn't look to be going anywhere soon. When the temps drop this evening it will get snowy quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Where is it all coming from? Radar isn't ovrly impressive. Have the small band in southern OH but nothing behind it and everything else is well to the east of us. Huh? The radar looks great to me. The storm is just forming... it will only get better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Its gonna be funny. Every house around mine will have snow but mine won't lol.. entire yard is a lake lol 4" of water covering my yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Huh? The radar looks great to me. The storm is just forming... it will only get better. If you're thinking the precip band off to my east is what's gonna bring snow, then PIT better lift the wsw for me. It isn't doing anything here.. just light precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Good call on the QPF. My confidence is very low... but it is growing. 6-10 seems reasonable. The precip band is parked over eastern OH and doesn't look to be going anywhere soon. When the temps drop this evening it will get snowy quickly. You have to search high and low to find a model that gives CLE less than 10" based on a 10:1 ratio. Despite this, the time of year, temps, and setup are tricky to call for anything more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Lowered me from a wsw to a wwa, county to my east is wsw. Game over for me. Already lowering things. Went from heavy snow to rain/snow. Towel is thrown in for me. Saying 3-5.and god I hope not. Id rather have nothing. Shift East please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northernohio Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Im going with 8-10 inches with iso 12 inch amounts....there is potential for HUGE numbers though especially if the lake gets involved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 I'm going with 4-6" for cleveland. 1" for cmh, 4-6 for PIT. 1-3 for around me. So I'm going way lower than the NWS. Never a good sign when NWS offices are playing catch up and lowering amounts. So I think 3-5 for me is out of the questiong. And 6-10 is out for cle, unless its the low end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Snow has started. Huge flakes mixing in. The bright echoes on the radar show it well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Snow has started. Huge flakes mixing in. The bright echoes on the radar show it well. Good luck. Radar looks like garbage to me. Everything good is to the east of OH in western PA. The bright echoes in CLE are moving north and will be outta there within an hour. And the small area in southern OH isn't expanding, so I guess I'm just picturing this being an epic fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Don't worry folks. Any snow that falls from this storm will be not on the ground for that long. Lower and middle 60s likely by this time next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Snow has started. Huge flakes mixing in. The bright echoes on the radar show it well. Mixing downtown as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted March 10, 2011 Author Share Posted March 10, 2011 WWA for me 2-4 inches of snow...LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Hope you guy's do well over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Still 40 here, all rain obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Good luck. Radar looks like garbage to me. Everything good is to the east of OH in western PA. The bright echoes in CLE are moving north and will be outta there within an hour. And the small area in southern OH isn't expanding, so I guess I'm just picturing this being an epic fail. Storm cancel before it starts? C'mon Dilly, it's March... snow is just for laughs at this point. What radar do you use? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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