Steve Posted March 9, 2011 Author Share Posted March 9, 2011 WSW..LOL..1 county away..at this point..not caring much..ready for spring!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 #$%@ Talk about bullish. Since the Euro was the first of the models to catch on to this a few days ago, that's a good sign. Absolutely nuts that the NAM and GFS are indicating 17 and 14 inches respectively for Cleveland. GFS and NAM dont look great for me or the county above me so i am shocked cle went with one for the county above me, and shocked pit gave me one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted March 9, 2011 Author Share Posted March 9, 2011 GFS and NAM dont look great for me or the county above me so i am shocked cle went with one for the county above me, and shocked pit gave me one It's March for goodness sakes..On with spring i say!! Wont even stick around for more then a day!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 18z nam dont look great for any of us in OH really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 GFS and NAM dont look great for me or the county above me so i am shocked cle went with one for the county above me, and shocked pit gave me one I wouldn't put to much stock in the exact depictions of the models. If that low follows a track from Virginia to Pennsylvania and then turns northwest into upstate New York, I would imagine it would be a pretty substantial snowfall for E Ohio, W PA, and SW NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 It's March for goodness sakes..On with spring i say!! Wont even stick around for more then a day!! dont care. Id rather have cold and snowy over cold and rainy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted March 9, 2011 Author Share Posted March 9, 2011 dont care. Id rather have cold and snowy over cold and rainy. Well..i would rather have sun and 60's!! At least now anyways!! But yes, snow over a cold rain anytime!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 #$%@ Talk about bullish. Since the Euro was the first of the models to catch on to this a few days ago, that's a good sign. Absolutely nuts that the NAM and GFS are indicating 17 and 14 inches respectively for Cleveland. That is bullish. Probably way over done considering ratio's will be extremely low. Its going to be a $hitshow around here if we get that much sponge snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Not impresed with any of the 18z runs. the wrf dont look good. basically only the euro now. Especially based on where the wsw are. Only one model shows that, the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
upsloper Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Just look at the 15Z SREF at KAKR. It is a similar story farther south with slightly less amounts. There is still major uncertainty on position of the sfc low and banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 That is bullish. Probably way over done considering ratio's will be extremely low. Its going to be a $hitshow around here if we get that much sponge snow. I was just going to post this morning how every event this winter has been a dry fluffy or sandy snow. It will be weird to see everything plastered in cement. The 18z GFS holds serve with 16.6" of snow for Cleveland. I'm in spring mode now, but I will gladly change my mood for an extraordinary event like this. These springtime storms can be tricky. This will start tomorrow night so accumulations will be well underway by morning. In fact the GFS indicates 13" will have fallen by 7 am on Friday. But going back to reality. Using my trusty method of taking the least amount of model QPF for a storm, reducing it by 30% if in excess of .75" and then assuming a 10:1 ratio to get the general snowfall the area will receive produces a snow event of 4-7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 0z NAM absolutely pummels my area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 This storm and the storm for next week are the ones I spoke of several weeks ago. Darn if that thing can come 60 miles for west I would have this NAILED... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 This storm and the storm for next week are the ones I spoke of several weeks ago. Darn if that thing can come 60 miles for west I would have this NAILED... Not likely for a shift like that. Here is mos data for my area, yet the clown map has me in the 2-3" range. THU 7P 10-MAR 2.9 -1.1 1009 92 86 0.39 546 539 FRI 1A 11-MAR 0.0 -4.0 1010 97 98 0.37 541 533 FRI 7A 11-MAR -1.2 -7.5 1011 96 98 0.28 539 531 FRI 1P 11-MAR 0.1 -7.7 1011 90 93 0.12 540 531 FRI 7P 11-MAR 0.9 -7.0 1011 96 90 0.07 541 532 SAT 1A 12-MAR -0.6 -5.3 1012 95 72 0.02 545 536 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 4.8" of snow here in CMH according to the NAM. I still don't buy it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
upsloper Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 For a taste of the extreme, check out the latest plume data from the 21Z SREF (from KAKR), which had been more conservative. Haha! 24 inches would be obscene! KCLE has two members > 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Ehh GFS sucks for here. I'm still not buying this storm. I'm going with 1-3 for me, until I see otherwise. The GFS has stayed consistant with not bringing much snow for south of akron. GFS = 1-3" NAM = 6-10" Euro= 4-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Not likely for a shift like that. Here is mos data for my area, yet the clown map has me in the 2-3" range. THU 7P 10-MAR 2.9 -1.1 1009 92 86 0.39 546 539 FRI 1A 11-MAR 0.0 -4.0 1010 97 98 0.37 541 533 FRI 7A 11-MAR -1.2 -7.5 1011 96 98 0.28 539 531 FRI 1P 11-MAR 0.1 -7.7 1011 90 93 0.12 540 531 FRI 7P 11-MAR 0.9 -7.0 1011 96 90 0.07 541 532 SAT 1A 12-MAR -0.6 -5.3 1012 95 72 0.02 545 536 Are you taking the warm 2M temps into account? Looks like we may not be below freezing for a lot of this snow. I'm think 1-2 inches for Columbus right now after seeing the latest 0z models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Are you taking the warm 2M temps into account? Looks like we may not be below freezing for a lot of this snow. I'm think 1-2 inches for Columbus right now after seeing the latest 0z models. Yea. Heavy wet snow will fall and stick with the 2m temps that is showing above. I wouldn't call .1 or .9 warm. Like 33. Powdery snow probably wouldn't. And I would guess lower for CMH. But its a sharp gradient. So the further east you get the heavier the snow. Also those numbers are for my location, not CMH. I personally don't think CMH has a shot with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Yea. Heavy wet snow will fall and stick with the 2m temps that is showing above. I wouldn't call .1 or .9 warm. Like 33. Powdery snow probably wouldn't. And I would guess lower for CMH. But its a sharp gradient. So the further east you get the heavier the snow. Also those numbers are for my location, not CMH. I personally don't think CMH has a shot with this. Really? NAM shows 2-4 for us and GFS has 1-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Really? NAM shows 2-4 for us and GFS has 1-3. Id say maybe 1 - 1.5 possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Id say maybe 1 - 1.5 possible Ah ok, yeah that is in my forecast range. Thought you meant nothing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 6z nam not good for anyone south of canton, really. 3" is what it shows for me 1.3" qpf all but .3 falling as rain. Ra/sn mix for 6hrs it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 GFS in line with nam. Time for me to root for an east or north shift. I don't want 3" of slop. GFS and NAM at 6z both look more north, so hopefully its a trend at this point. PIT gonna bust on the wsw's they issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 CLE will be lifting the WSW for the county North of me. Now has them getting 2-4" total based on latest model trends. Game over for anyone south of I-76 is basically what they are saying and I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 I can't wait to see the hype that is created by this storm today. Consistent model agreement from the EURO, NAM, and GFS with at least a 1 inch of QPF. This will likely be a carbon copy of the storm 2 weeks ago in terms of snowfall along the north coast , start time, and travel impacts. Overnight model wrap up for CLE: EURO: 1.17" GFS: 1.22" NAM: 1.37" The BUF mesos are showing about 1.25" as well. The WRF shows about 1.5-2" That's some consistency! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Talk about getting destroyed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 RUC showing 1"+ per hour rates developing by midnight around CLE and continuing into the early morning hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Here's my first call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 This is almost a perfect scenario set up for CLE. A juicy late winter storm, with 850 winds aligned perfectly over Lakes Huron and Erie which are now ice free. A shift in either direction still allows for a decent enhancement set up. I think it's always easy to get caught up in the ridiculous QPF amounts, but this storm should perform quite similarly to the storm 2 Fridays ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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