dilly84 Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 I am pretty darn confident we will see some snow in early April. Nothing huge but its going to sucky spring across the Ohio Valley. Cool and wet! I agree with you that we get smacked one more time before we close the book on this winter. One more time? Where was I when the first time we got smacked? This is the worst winter I can ever remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 15, 2011 Share Posted February 15, 2011 One more time? Where was I when the first time we got smacked? This is the worst winter I can ever remember. Dilly - Did the Euro show any frozen precip for OH next week? Or just your typical rain in OH with every surrounding state seeing snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Dilly - Did the Euro show any frozen precip for OH next week? Or just your typical rain in OH with every surrounding state seeing snow? Euro had some snow for CLE, but not much. Mostly rain/zr central OH big ol rain storm. Was hoping my long range prediction would pan out. Need a south shift of say 200 miles for central OH to have a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 Euro had some snow for CLE, but not much. Mostly rain/zr central OH big ol rain storm. Was hoping my long range prediction would pan out. Need a south shift of say 200 miles for central OH to have a shot. Thanks, Dilly. Appreciate the info. Looks last the 00z run was a little colder. Strange track to the storm that's for sure. I'd almost rather this storm cut because the second storm will surely torch the great lakes and OV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Getting really sloppy out there. Still several inches of snow on the ground. Should be gone by tomorrow though. Surprised there isn't more talk in this thread about next week. 06z GFS destroys parts of western OH with 20" + next Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Getting really sloppy out there. Still several inches of snow on the ground. Should be gone by tomorrow though. Surprised there isn't more talk in this thread about next week. 06z GFS destroys parts of western OH with 20" + next Tuesday. Go back over a week ago. I called one for the 22nd but my plan is to not post about it until 2 days out. So I'm not saying anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Go back over a week ago. I called one for the 22nd but my plan is to not post about it until 2 days out. So I'm not saying anything else. Good call. If you don't want to post about the storm... maybe you could just provide us weenies with Euro precip and precip type Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Haven't been following the weather too closely lately, but I noticed the GFS is hinting at a Buckeye special next Tuesday. Looks almost like a perfect surface setup for central and eastern Ohio, with high pressure in Ontario and over the Atlantic and a low tracking into Virginia. The only thing preventing this from being a big hitter is the Atlantic ridge breaks down and heads east allowing the low to progressively track offshore. So it's a pretty transient storm, but could still see some 6"+ amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Haven't been following the weather too closely lately, but I noticed the GFS is hinting at a Buckeye special next Tuesday. Looks almost like a perfect surface setup for central and eastern Ohio, with high pressure in Ontario and over the Atlantic and a low tracking into Virginia. The only thing preventing this from being a big hitter is the Atlantic ridge breaks down and heads east allowing the low to progressively track offshore. So it's a pretty transient storm, but could still see some 6"+ amounts. meh, only the gfs has it right now. The rest of the models blow their load on the first more northerly wave. Show it on the euro and i'll raise an eyebrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Record high of 59 at Youngstown today. Also record high of 66 at Zanesville yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 @ hour 192 of the 12z GFS http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_192m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Officially, the snowiest winter on record at YNG. 1. 103.7 2010-2011 2. 102.8 2007-2008 3. 90.2 2006-2007 4. 86.5 2008-2009 5. 85.3 1950-1951 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Officially, the snowiest winter on record at YNG. 1. 103.7 2010-2011 2. 102.8 2007-2008 3. 90.2 2006-2007 4. 86.5 2008-2009 5. 85.3 1950-1951 What's most astounding is the average of the past five winters is 91.8 inches, which would be the third snowiest on record if it were a single season and would have easily been #1 prior to the winter of 2006-2007. Normal is 54.4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Just took a look at the 18z NAM... showing some potential for heavy snow Monday night. At 6z Tuesday, the 850 freezing line extends from roughly Painesville to Zanesville and then bows SE into West Virginia. The 6 hour precip ending at that time shows .5-1.25 inches across much of northwest Ohio and north-central Ohio -- although it's unclear how much, if any, of that would be snow. Nevertheless, the simulated radar at the time indicates heavy precipitation would still be falling in a band from Columbus to Lorain/Cleveland and should be all snow by that time. 30-35 dbz in the core of it, so I assume you'd be talking inch per hour type snows if the model were to be correct. Obviously, a ways away, but would be a really bizarre situation if it were to occur. You'd be talking 50s and 60s with heavy rain and thunderstorms associated with the cold front Monday, then a dry slot. Then additional heavy rain with the CCB, changing to heavy snow. Likely thunderstorms/thundersnow as well with the type of precip. rates depicted. Probably not even plausible. The storm would probably have to take on a strong negative tilt to occur. I should also add the 18z GFS at the same time has the low north of Maine, with sunny skies in Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Officially, the snowiest winter on record at YNG. 1. 103.7 2010-2011 2. 102.8 2007-2008 3. 90.2 2006-2007 4. 86.5 2008-2009 5. 85.3 1950-1951 That's unbelievable... more along the lines of laughable. What would have changed with snowfall reporting back in 2006... hmmm. I believe the answer lies there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 there are snow events in the time line I spoke of two weeks ago. Maybe next weekend here in southern Ohio...Dilly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 What's most astounding is the average of the past five winters is 91.8 inches, which would be the third snowiest on record if it were a single season and would have easily been #1 prior to the winter of 2006-2007. Normal is 54.4 inches. I am at 61.1" of snow here at the lakeshore, which is a half inch above last year's final total, and just 2 inches from the season normal. What I will say is that the past few winters starting in 06/07 have been extremely snowy in CLE's southern CWA. However, I will agree that the totals in YNG are a bit absurd. As someone who moved to Wooster in 2007 from a much snowier climate in Michigan, I did a lot of research as to the normal snowfall there and significant events. What I found from browsing the CLE maps back to 1997 and looking at the historical coop data for decades back (with a grain of salt) I came to the conclusion that the average there was somewhere around 35 inches. The route 30 corridor has had an amazing string of luck the past 5 years. The Valentine's Day storm of 2007 and the March 2008 storm come to mind. In fact, I think Wooster has had a 10"+ storm the past 5 years in a row now, which is an incredible anomaly. So Wooster's 5 year average is roughly at the 60 inch mark which is just as high above their normal as YNG is. So there is some grain of truth to YNG's snowiness, I just think that because the area as a whole has seen much more snow than usual in much more frequent events that the slight embellishment of an inch or two per event at YNG is being magnified to epic proportions. ----- As a side bar, this past storm definitely increased my grade for this winter. A nice capping off so to speak. I am definitely ready for spring now and could care less for any more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted February 27, 2011 Share Posted February 27, 2011 I am at 61.1" of snow here at the lakeshore, which is a half inch above last year's final total, and just 2 inches from the season normal. What I will say is that the past few winters starting in 06/07 have been extremely snowy in CLE's southern CWA. However, I will agree that the totals in YNG are a bit absurd. As someone who moved to Wooster in 2007 from a much snowier climate in Michigan, I did a lot of research as to the normal snowfall there and significant events. What I found from browsing the CLE maps back to 1997 and looking at the historical coop data for decades back (with a grain of salt) I came to the conclusion that the average there was somewhere around 35 inches. The route 30 corridor has had an amazing string of luck the past 5 years. The Valentine's Day storm of 2007 and the March 2008 storm come to mind. In fact, I think Wooster has had a 10"+ storm the past 5 years in a row now, which is an incredible anomaly. So Wooster's 5 year average is roughly at the 60 inch mark which is just as high above their normal as YNG is. So there is some grain of truth to YNG's snowiness, I just think that because the area as a whole has seen much more snow than usual in much more frequent events that the slight embellishment of an inch or two per event at YNG is being magnified to epic proportions. ----- As a side bar, this past storm definitely increased my grade for this winter. A nice capping off so to speak. I am definitely ready for spring now and could care less for any more snow. What's also impressive about the YNG record is this was the first winter on record with no measurable snow before December 1. So, the record was set despite having the latest first measurable snow. And, heck, even if it didn't measurably snow there from here on out (which would also easily be a record), the record would still stand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Seeing a bit of lightning south of here...little cell popping up around plain city. Had a good down pour that lasted about 5 min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 There is moderate to major river flooding occurring across the Cleveland/Akron area...with multiple rivers in flood stage and at least two gauges right now that are in or may rise into major flood stage, with a couple that may get close to record crests... Currently the Black, Cuyahoga, Chagrin and Grand Rivers are all in flood stage in the Cleveland/Akron area. Of note, the Cuyahoga is in moderate to major flood stage at both of its gauges. The Old Portage Gauge appears to be cresting however as of this writing. The Independence gauge is in major flood and is expected to rise for a few more hours. The current forecast has the crest reaching 22.98', which would fall just short of the 23.33' record crest in June 2006, however would replace the 22.41' crest in January of 1959 as the second highest crest if the current forecast verifies. The Chagrin River gauge in Willoughby is currently in moderate flood and rising. The current forecast is for a crest of 15.94' around noon today, which is just below major flood stage. However as of this writing, the forecast is running slightly lower that the current level of the river, which may be enough for a crest just into the major flood stage category. Either way, even the forecast crest would be in the top 5, with number 5 being a 15.33' crest in March 1964. Number 4 appears to be safe at 16.74'. The Grand River is also forecast to approach but fall just short of major flood stage. It is currently in moderate flood but still rising fairly fast. The warning that currently stands out the most... FLOOD WARNINGOHC035-281953- /O.EXT.KCLE.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-110301T1532Z/ /INDO1.3.ER.110228T0953Z.110228T1800Z.110301T0932Z.NR/ 653 AM EST MON FEB 28 2011 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE CUYAHOGA RIVER AT INDEPENDENCE * UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING * AT 6:30 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS...19.1 FEET * MAJOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST * FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET * THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 23.0 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. * AT 18.5 FEET...EXTENSIVE FLOODING OCCURS ALONG GLEESON... CHARLES...FRANCES...AND STONE STREETS. CANAL ROAD WILL BE FLOODED IN PORTIONS OF VALLEY VIEW. MANY ROADS MAY BECOME IMPASSABLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Heck of a storm last night. Almost constant lightning for a few hours and heavy rains. Somehow there is still snow on the ground this morning. 06z GFS shows over 24 inches next weekend. After last weeks storm I'm ready for Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Driving the backroads up to Marion this morning, saw a lot of flooded farm land, even the streets underwater at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Heck of a storm last night. Almost constant lightning for a few hours and heavy rains. Somehow there is still snow on the ground this morning. 06z GFS shows over 24 inches next weekend. After last weeks storm I'm ready for Spring. One year ago today winter ended in Ohio and the incredible stretch of unprecedented heat began. I'm ready for spring as well and a repeat of last year will get no complaints from me. We've had snow on the ground pretty much continually for the past 3 months. Even at this point I could care less for a major storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 One year ago today winter ended in Ohio and the incredible stretch of unprecedented heat began. I'm ready for spring as well and a repeat of last year will get no complaints from me. We've had snow on the ground pretty much continually for the past 3 months. Even at this point I could care less for a major storm. Last Spring was perfect. Complete shut off of the cold and snow on March 1st. A repeat of last year would be perfect. My yard is half under water with a slushy 2 -3 inches in the spots not covered with water. Drove over the Chagrin river this morning... the water was the highest I've seen it. Overall it's been an ok winter. Snowcover is what made the winter, plus last weeks storm. Time for some sun and warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carumba Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 Last Spring was perfect. Complete shut off of the cold and snow on March 1st. A repeat of last year would be perfect. My yard is half under water with a slushy 2 -3 inches in the spots not covered with water. Drove over the Chagrin river this morning... the water was the highest I've seen it. Overall it's been an ok winter. Snowcover is what made the winter, plus last weeks storm. Time for some sun and warmth. Yeah I was just out in Chesterland this morning driving north on 306, the river was VERY high, as high as I have ever seen it but fortunately still a couple feet below the bridge and did not appear in imminent danger of spilling over. Fortunately today's warmth was not accompanied by sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 28, 2011 Share Posted February 28, 2011 The middle of Valley View is under water. Canal road is flooded from Rockside north well past the 480 bridge. Many businesses and homes along the road are inaccessible and a number are also flooded. There is also a significant amount of backwater flooding farther south where there are marshes and smaller creeks going into the river. A number of side streets off of Canal are also impassable due to high water from the river. Several rivers across the area had notable crests... The Cuyahoga River at Independence saw its second highest crest ever at 27.73'. The Chagrin River at Willoughby saw its 5th highest crest ever at 16.57'. The Grand River at Painesville saw its 3rd highest crest ever at 13.29'. The Cuyahoga River at Old Portage missed the top 5, but still had a notable 6th highest crest ever at 11.61'. The Huron River at Milan is currently cresting near 24.8', which will be the second highest crest on record there. Tinkers Creek was out of its banks in Glenwillow and through Bedford and Walton Hills before spilling into the Cuyahoga in Valley View, but there were minimal buildings flooded out as the creek is in the Metro Parks for most of its journey. Twinsburg may have seen some flooding from it but I didn't look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 Yesterday was the second rainiest February day at CLE. The rainiest was Feb 16, 1976 which was just a tad higher with 2.04" falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Going ahead and calling this winter over. No signs of snow on any model. Rain, rain, and more rain. Final grade for winter 10-11. D-. Would've been an F if not for the one 6" storm that melted in 2 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 There's still a slight threat for Ohio with this upcoming storm depending on the ultimate evolution Saturday night into Sunday. I haven't really paid much attention to it, but something worth mentioning in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Anyone see the latest Euro? Dumps a solid 3 inches of snow on central Ohio Sunday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.