ARyan Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 FWIW, here's my first guess at snowfall totals. It's hard to do this on a laptop and it'll probably change tonight, but anyway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B Dawk 20 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 My first snowfall map. Ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 preliminary thinking...full update by midnight tonight: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 AR Interesting OBS point from Joe Bastardi this morning....something to watch for a shift to the west and some mixing issues for Jersey Shore and Long Island. "The models have the storm passing east of Saint Simon Islands, but winds are turning into the southeast. Hatteras is obviously not in the game yet, but will be tomorrow and a track near or inside hatteras will mean the coastal low will deepen up further west. That would mean greater low level convergence intersecting with the upper divergence and a rapid ramp up of snow rates later tomorrow and tomorrow night, along with more snow further west, and the chance of the change to rain in the coastal areas that got pounded with the blizzard" AR and Voyager-- watch in the next 2-3 runs of the GFS and NAM- the rookies will be going nuts. I post here in this thread so it cannot be said that I am off my rocker. 6-12 is a good bet for LV- watch the radar rather than the models- there are too many variables working in this storm to rely on just one model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 out of this thread I agree with Quincy's the most Also, we need to give away copies of photoshop and powerpoint to some people on this board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 That what fast.. Where did that map go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 That what fast.. Where did that map go? In the trash. Not appropriate for this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 In the trash. Not appropriate for this forum. true, how dare he forecast only 3-6" for NYC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Here is my current thinking +/- 20 miles west or east. This is fairly general thinking but I believe the solution will be similar to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 true, how dare he forecast only 3-6" for NYC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 put this together in 5 mins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 put this together in 5 mins My favorite part of this map is how the 12"+ line stops line 5 blocks from my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 lgt green 1-4 blue 4-7 pinkish purple 7-10 red 10-15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 here's my latest thinking: I suspect that the models trend west (mainly because of the 18z GFS ens) and we get good snows farther west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 lgt green 1-4 blue 4-7 pinkish purple 7-10 red 10-15 Nice thoughts. I can agree with it. The only problem I see is maybe mixing or lower ratios bringing totals down on eastern LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I've never really made a serious map before. Mostly because I have no idea about regions outside NYC and LI. Oh well, here's a shot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Nice thoughts. I can agree with it. The only problem I see is maybe mixing or lower ratios bringing totals down on eastern LI. yea thats very true...im banking on 0z west shift in the nam and gfs, more so the gfs, but i think the nam is going to come in juicier if it hold the same h5 depiction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I've never really made a serious map before. Mostly because I have no idea about regions outside NYC and LI. Oh well, here's a shot... Nice map. Do you have the blank version of that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 My best guesstimate: Red: 10-18", locally 20" in ORH hills and possibly areas over central/east Suffolk from Centereach-Riverhead Blue: 8-14". Eastern areas over SE MA and E LI have mixing issues and have lower accums Dark grey: 4-8" Outside the dark grey: Under 4" Other guesses: NYC: 12" JFK: 13" EWR: 13" POU: 13" BLM: 10" ISP: 15" BOS: 16" ORH: 19" HFD: 12" PVD: 15" CHH: 4" (mix) MTP: 6" (mix) HVN: 16" PHL: 7" TTN: 8" UNV: 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 yea thats very true...im banking on 0z west shift in the nam and gfs, more so the gfs, but i think the nam is going to come in juicier if it hold the same h5 depiction The little I've actually followed this storm on the models, I have seen a trend in H5 that argues (with my limited knowledge) a west shift in the surface depiction. Glad to see you are seeing something similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Latest map. May refine and update one more time tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Nice map. Do you have the blank version of that? Search google images for blank northeast us map. If you can't find it, pm me and I'll send it to you when I'm back on my computer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riverrat Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 put this together in 5 mins Looks like a giant fish eating Southern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Here are the maps I use: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 yea thats very true...im banking on 0z west shift in the nam and gfs, more so the gfs, but i think the nam is going to come in juicier if it hold the same h5 depiction I'd be ecstatic with 7" here. Ratios should be good, but the dry slot as the low transfers worries me. My parents in Georgia have 18 inches this winter and Easton, PA has about 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Think there will be a secondary Max hills of W. Ct. up through W. Ma... and then inland areas of E NE... First time doing this for such a large area, areas on NE and SW fringes may need adjustment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Here are the maps I use: Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yep right now 8-12 (more like 10-12) from NE NJ to NYC Metro to Nassau County, and 12-15" in LI and North East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I've never really made a serious map before. Mostly because I have no idea about regions outside NYC and LI. Oh well, here's a shot... lol good try but the ct part is no goodski.. you have 4-8 bordering 14-20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.