_AR_ Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Post your forecasts for the upcoming storm here in graphical format. Always nice (and entertaining) to see a thread full of snowfall forecast maps. Once again, we have another somewhat difficult to forecast storm. Post your maps! Updates welcome as we draw nearer. I will be posting one later because I am bored. EDIT: wow I need to change calendars.... The first dates I put in the topic title were 12/7-12/8. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 What the heck. This is the map I sent out late Saturday afternoon to those I know. It was meant to outline my initial and preliminary thoughts on how this may likely unfold. I have debated on updating but for now I am not quite ready to commit to more detail. Though I am leaning towards basically dividing the main area in half with higher north & east, lower south & west. Not sure what those ranges will be but probably something like 4-8 south & west and 8-12 north & east. I will likely wait for the 0z runs before doing so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty Lightning Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I may possibly post a map tonight...it's awfully soon to post one, but IF the 00z runs seem to keep the continuity going, it might be okay for a moderate confidence snowfall forecast... looks like the best area right now to be in is northern NJ, NYC metro, LI away from the South Shore and eastern Sections and much of southern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reale WX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 What the heck. This is the map I sent out late Saturday afternoon to those I know. It was meant to outline my initial and preliminary thoughts on how this may likely unfold. I have debated on updating but for now I am not quite ready to commit to more detail. Though I am leaning towards basically dividing the main area in half with higher north & east, lower south & west. Not sure what those ranges will be but probably something like 4-8 south & west and 8-12 north & east. I will likely wait for the 0z runs before doing so. As of right now completely agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 nice finger point Scott Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty Lightning Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 nice finger point Scott Eh, I just added that in because of higher elevation starting in Somerset County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I may possibly post a map tonight...it's awfully soon to post one, but IF the 00z runs seem to keep the continuity going, it might be okay for a moderate confidence snowfall forecast... looks like the best area right now to be in is northern NJ, NYC metro, LI away from the South Shore and eastern Sections and much of southern New England. 12/26 all over again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 12/26 all over again... Yeah haha. Hopefully at least it won't be as tight of a gradient and we can pull off more than 2 inches this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 12/26 all over again... Seasonal trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yeah haha. Hopefully at least it won't be as tight of a gradient and we can pull off more than 2 inches this time. I have been saying this for days on this board - the Memphis winter storm warnings tonight means that we will get hammered here in the Valley/Poconos. The NYC people are in wishful thinking land. The models will change at the last moment and coastal will close off at the Delmarva area. I have seen this too many times. Banding and convective issues will happen here. By the way - thundersnow is in the forecast for memphis- talk about rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yeah haha. Hopefully at least it won't be as tight of a gradient and we can pull off more than 2 inches this time. What did you say about the gradient? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Seasonal trend? 09-10, 10-11 trend? Expecting wind blown flurries in Luzerne County with the sun peeking through Tuesday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 What did you say about the gradient? 00Z NAM looks good. Grothar, I'm rooting for you. I think this thing could pull west and run up the beach based on 500mb trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NYC area wins again...no surprise. But this time the cutoff isn't as sharp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 00Z NAM looks good. Grothar, I'm rooting for you. I think this thing could pull west and run up the beach based on 500mb trends. I agree with you but apparently the only one that is close to our thinking is DT. He goes by weather history as well. His maps show it as well. He has been around as long as I have and remembers some storms too --- 1983 is close to our thinking. Thanks. I will sit by now and watch those young ones jump off the cliff in 24 hours when the banding goes west just came out to prove our point SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... QUICK COMMENT ON 18Z NAM/GFS/21Z SREF/00Z NAM RELATIVE TO POTENTIALLY POTENT COASTAL LOW IMPACTING THE REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WHEN TAKING AS A COLLECTIVE WHOLE...THERE IS NOTHING IN THERE TO SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE PREVIOUS THINKING. THE MAIN THING TO NOTE IS THAT THEY HAVE TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF IDEA OF THE LOW BEGINNING TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT APPROACHES US...WHERE AS BEFORE THIS GROUP OF MODELS HELD OFF ON THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION UNTIL AFTER THE LOW WAS MOVING AWAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Why are people posting 3-6 for LI when we're going to have 1.5" QPF of liquid.... ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Why are people posting 3-6 for LI when we're going to have 1.5" QPF of liquid.... ??? Mixing COULD be an issue if the NAM ends up being correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 toyed with the idea of a map, but will wait until Monday. CURRENT THINKING: 4-8" a good possibility from N NJ into NYC, Hudson Valley, all of CT and going into Massachusetts. further details on LI and southeastern New England will follow, but the track is going to be key. The highest totals could very well exceed 8 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Mixing COULD be an issue if the NAM ends up being correct. I think it will be more of a possible issue on the eastern south shore as well as the twin forks. The north shore of central Suffolk west should be OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 My take: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I like some of the pics in here. Good luck to all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 No map but a forecast for a # of towns: Everyone east of EWR-Fort Dix-ACY: 7-12" (includes NYC metro) Everyone east of Stroudsburg-Quakertown-Wilmington -- 4-8" (includes Philly metro) Everyone else in Eastern PA: 2-5" Mix possible south of ACY along the coastline. Some parts of SW CT and Central LI 10-16" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 here's my first guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 AR I agree with you but apparently the only one that is close to our thinking is DT. He goes by weather history as well. His maps show it as well. He has been around as long as I have and remembers some storms too --- 1983 is close to our thinking. Thanks. I will sit by now and watch those young ones jump off the cliff in 24 hours when the banding goes west just came out to prove our point SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... QUICK COMMENT ON 18Z NAM/GFS/21Z SREF/00Z NAM RELATIVE TO POTENTIALLY POTENT COASTAL LOW IMPACTING THE REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WHEN TAKING AS A COLLECTIVE WHOLE...THERE IS NOTHING IN THERE TO SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE PREVIOUS THINKING. THE MAIN THING TO NOTE IS THAT THEY HAVE TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF IDEA OF THE LOW BEGINNING TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT APPROACHES US...WHERE AS BEFORE THIS GROUP OF MODELS HELD OFF ON THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION UNTIL AFTER THE LOW WAS MOVING AWAY. Interesting OBS point from Joe Bastardi this morning....something to watch for a shift to the west and some mixing issues for Jersey Shore and Long Island. "The models have the storm passing east of Saint Simon Islands, but winds are turning into the southeast. Hatteras is obviously not in the game yet, but will be tomorrow and a track near or inside hatteras will mean the coastal low will deepen up further west. That would mean greater low level convergence intersecting with the upper divergence and a rapid ramp up of snow rates later tomorrow and tomorrow night, along with more snow further west, and the chance of the change to rain in the coastal areas that got pounded with the blizzard" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 here's my first guess I think this is a great map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smitty97 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Don't you guys know there is a "Text" tool in MS Paint? Just kidding, love the hand-drawn numbers. Keep em coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NYC area wins again...no surprise. But this time the cutoff isn't as sharp. Take this map and shift it 30 miles east. That's my final call barring a miracle left shift in tonight's models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 My prediction. I used a model blend with less at the shore thanks to lower ratios. Key: Teal : 10-16" Violet 10-14" Red 8-12"+ Light Blue (mostly west of red area) 6-10" Pink 4-7" Green 5-8" Black < or = 5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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