ezweather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Hi Folks, Here’s another edition of my webcast show. Below are some brief notes on what I’ll be covering for this outlook. There is definitely a higher risk for a significant winter storm that will impact many locations across the Philadelphia area by Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Since there will be a significant event coming, now is the time to get ready. Also, the NWS in Mount Holly will likely begin issuing special briefing packages for media and local Emergency Management. To access their briefing package, head over to this link - http://www.erh.noaa....nt_briefing.pdf. In the longer range period, a very wintry time period expected through the remainder of this period. Below is a summary of my weekly webcast show for the Philadelphia Area outlook for the next two weeks. Short Range Outlook – Monday, January 10th through Thursday, January 13th - Part I: Upper Air Pattern Outlook, Forecast Weather Maps, Temperature and Precipitation Forecast Trends - Part II: Hazardous Weather Outlooks, including Forecast Risk Tables and Weather Safety Information Long Range Outlook – Thu, Jan 13th through Fri, Jan 21st - Part I: 6 to 10 Day and 8 to 14 Day Outlook, detailing Jet Stream Outlook, Temperatures and Precipitation - Part II: Hazardous Weather Outlooks, including Forecast Risk Tables and Weather Safety Resources To access the webcast videos, just head over to my site at www.ezweather.com. From there, click on the Broadcast tab. From there, you’ll be able to see the videos I posted. Brief Summary Discussion Monday, January 10th through Thursday, January 13th This period, the jet stream will continue to maintain a trough over the central and eastern US. During this time frame for Tuesday into Wednesday, there will be a chance for a winter storm that will impact most of the Philadelphia area. The likely scenario will be a southern disturbance will track across the Deep South and then weaken. A northern stream disturbance will track from the Pacific Northwest and then head to the eastern US by Tuesday. This upper air feature will aid in the development of two low pressure centers, one over eastern Kentucky and another over near eastern North Carolina. The low over Hatteras will eventually intensify as it moves up the Mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday night and then head up over to eastern New England coastal waters. After this storm moves out, this period will stay on the cold side. Temperatures expected to be below average. Precipitation is expected to be average to above average. Weather Hazards Expected Eastern Pennsylvania, NJ, Northeastern Maryland, and Delaware: Right now, the biggest weather hazard will be for a major winter storm that will impact the region late Tuesday into early Wednesday. So, here’s a high level breakdown of the storm and the risks it poses. There is a high risk for a major winter storm for much of the area. There is a high risk for 6 to 12 inches and a low risk for 12 to 24 inches of snow. For winds, there is a high risk that winds will reach 20mph and a low risk of sustain 30mph winds. The risk for blizzard type conditions will be low. There is a high risk that this storm will degrade impact transportation and marine. For highway driving, road conditions will likely deteriorate Tuesday night, making getting around very difficult. As for aviation, the potential exist for delays/cancelations in flights at several airport hubs such as Philadelphia, Newark, New York City, and up to Boston. Finally, the marine impact will be concerning mariners where rough seas are expected. Near the coast, there could be some beach erosion. Coastal flooding looks to be minimal from this storm. Finally, check back with the NWS for their latest advisories concerning this storm. <B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><BR style="PAGE-BREAK-BEFORE: always" clear=all></B> Thursday, January 14th through Monday, January 17th This period, jet stream will maintain a broad trough over much of the US. The Telleconnection Indice forecasts by the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL), calling for the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) to be moderately negative and the Pacific North American (PNA) to be moderately positive. There will be several Pacific systems that will impact the northwestern US. Beyond this period, those systems will likely impact our region. For now, this period is expected to be cold and dry. Temperatures are expected to be below average. Precipitation expected to be near average. Weather hazards expected Eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Northeastern Maryland, and Delaware: None forecasted at for this period. <BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"> Tuesday, January 18th through Friday, January 21st This period, jet stream will feature some ridging over western US, and a trough over the central and eastern US. In this time frame there will be parade of Pacific storms that will eventually track across the northern US. Also, another item to watch is the progression of whether arctic air will move into the region during this period. Right now, it may stay near Canada during this time frame. Back to the winter threats, since there is already a large cold airmass in place over the central and eastern US; as these Pacific systems track across the northern US, they will likely introduce the risk for future winter events, especially for the Philadelphia area. Several of these systems from the Pacific Northwest could amplify as they move across the central and eastern US and develop into several significant winter weather events. The forecasts by ESRL show that NAO and AO will still be in the negative phase. The PNA will likely be in a moderately positive phase. If ridging does develop with time, then downstream the trough over the central and especially the eastern US will amplify, hence any disturbances from these Pacific systems could really amply. Overall, this period bears watching for additional winter weather threats. Temperatures forecasted to be near average. Precipitation forecasted to be average to above average. Weather hazards expected Eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Northeastern Maryland, and Delaware: There is a low risk for arctic cold and winter storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 nice site! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Great site...enjoyed your last broadcast update...am looking forward to this one Keep up the great work!! Paul www.chescowx.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Thanks for the positive feedback.. Hope to make the shows even better as time permits.. Hopefully, I can file some special audio webcasts for the winter storm this week.. Great site...enjoyed your last broadcast update...am looking forward to this one Keep up the great work!! Paul www.chescowx.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Hi Folks, Here’s another edition of my webcast show. Below are some brief notes on what I’ll be covering for this outlook. There is definitely a higher risk for a significant winter storm that will impact many locations across the Philadelphia area by Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Since there will be a significant event coming, now is the time to get ready. Also, the NWS in Mount Holly will likely begin issuing special briefing packages for media and local Emergency Management. To access their briefing package, head over to this link - http://www.erh.noaa....nt_briefing.pdf. In the longer range period, a very wintry time period expected through the remainder of this period. Thanks for mentioning my office. It appears the first briefing package was posted late yesterday morning, with updates posted probably later this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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