Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 You've got to laugh. Imagine if the Euro verifies? First JB sad winter was over for areas south of I-80 come mid December. Then it was around New Years. Then it changed and the coldest january in the US since 1985 was at hand. Then massive warm up late January. Now this possible cold outbreak. February 1934, here we come! Absolutely, it is totally crazy! You know, I can completely understand changing one's thinking on how January will be compared to what one might have called for early in the season, based upon new information. In fact, several on this board have done the same (originally thinking a warmer January, then indications pointed to colder), and I totally respect that. Even if we have a (relatively) warm period later this month, I can certainly see January ending up below normal, or at least colder than originally thought. If the major cold which the models have at times depicted verifies, I can see this being one of the coldest in awhile. So that's fair enough and reasonable. However, what JB is doing is completely unreasonable and downright not helpful, and I totally agree with what you're saying here! Going from "winter is over soon after Christmas" to "coldest January in a quarter century!" to "big snowstorm all along I-95!" (a week out) to "big warmup for the last part of January" is pretty outrageous in my book. Maybe he's throwing everything possible out there, so that at the end of January he can say that one of his forecasts was correct! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 It's a clipper, clipper, one you better remember. It's early December, but more there may not be. For this patterns a flipper, a flipper, in case you are in wonder, the ridge building from under, ends winter for much of the East." -- Joe Bastardi, December 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 JB is a complete failure this year. You would thing he would improve as he ages and gets more experience. JB does really well in El Ninos with STJ where its hard to screw up. He's obsessed with proving an analogy between the hurricane season and the following winters. He said that's how his dad did it and he's out to prove it works....(probably wants to write a book or something). The only thing he was right about, (in a general sense), was a cold December....but hell everyone was saying that*. He kept pointing to the cold December matching up perfectly with his hurricane analog. ....as far as I'm concerned, he's done a fantastic job of proving there is no significant analogy between hurricane seasons and the following winter. Edit: *except DT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2011 Author Share Posted January 12, 2011 He's obsessed with proving an analogy between the hurricane season and the following winters. He said that's how his dad did it and he's out to prove it works....(probably wants to write a book or something). The only thing he was right about, (in a general sense), was a cold December....but hell everyone was saying that. He kept pointing to the cold December matching up perfectly with his hurricane analog. ....as far as I'm concerned, he's done a fantastic job of proving there is no significant analogy between hurricane seasons and the following winter. When he calls for a cold winter, he will do whatever it takes to point out to future cold outbreaks even if they dont exist. He is doing the same thing this year except the opposite. He is so busy looking for the next warm up that he is missing the consistent cold thats showing up on the modeling. And dont get me started with how much snow he has given DC this year vs what has fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 When he calls for a cold winter, he will do whatever it takes to point out to future cold outbreaks even if they dont exist. He is doing the same thing this year except the opposite. He is so busy looking for the next warm up that he is missing the consistent cold thats showing up on the modeling. And dont get me started with how much snow he has given DC this year vs what has fallen. did you get that 3-6 shoveled yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whacker77 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I've always enjoyed JB, but it's hard to defend his forecast this year or in many of the past years of this decade. The "Vodka Cold" call of 2001-2002 still lingers. This season just hasn't been a good one for him. In mid December, he said the models were sniffing out a pattern change and said the same thing on Fox. Then he flipped to say look out for cold in January only to say a big pattern reversal was on the way after the 20th. Now, he's already pushing back that prediction. If this winter has shown us anything, the bias is towards very cold weather east of the MS river. For so many years, the bias was always towards the warm solution. How many times did we have winters in the 1990's and early part of this decade where there was no winter weather to find? I live in Kentucky and I can think of many times when I played golf in January because it was in the 60's or even the 70's. That hasn't been the case since mid winter of 2008. In fact, it's been pretty darn cold and consistently so here since Valentine's Day 2008. JB said on his twitter page he doesn't flip flop based on model runs, but hasn't he done so with the pattern? The GFS has tried three times to flip the pattern, but has always backed off. I guess it's doing the same thing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 did you get that 3-6 shoveled yet? I wore out my back getting rid of the 1" we got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I wore out my back getting rid of the 1" we got. Do you even bother shoveling 1"? I would think a little salt would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Do you even bother shoveling 1"? I would think a little salt would be nice. No, I was being sarcastic. The community association shovels the sidewalks. They used salt and a broom I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Do you even bother shoveling 1"? I would think a little salt would be nice. I'm like a plow company: I won't shovel my driveway unless there's more snow than will melt on a sunny day (~1.5-2" here)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 JB is going warm, while Henry is going cold. Longer range - I am just looking at things. Extreme Cold wave is coming into the East end of next week, but before we get there, we have several shots of snow, including another coastal storm potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 A warm up would be very welcome at this point. You never welcome a warm-up while you still have snow on the ground. You always protect your snow. Always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mtnclimber Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 here, here You never welcome a warm-up while you still have snow on the ground. You always protect your snow. Always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 JB is going warm, while Henry is going cold. It would be nice if we could get a coastal storm that actually impacted my region. One of the main reasons Ottawa, Montreal and Syracuse average more snow than Toronto and Buffalo is because we're supposed to get hit by coastal storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 It would be nice if we could get a coastal storm that actually impacted my region. One of the main reasons Ottawa, Montreal and Syracuse average more snow than Toronto and Buffalo is because we're supposed to get hit by coastal storms. Take Syracuse out of the list and you might be on to something... Syracuse is more highly dependent on lake-effect. Also, good job JB for taking one model solution and running with it yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 He needed to run to the bank to deposit Ji's monthly payment. I asked Ji why couldn't he financially support AmerWx (since he dominates every thread during the winter), and he whined that he couldn't afford it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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