Ji Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Ji, After a period of severe cold with single digit lows in NYC, PHL, IAD, etc., moderation that would lift temperatures to normal and then a few degrees above normal would amount to a "major" change from the severe cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Ji, After a period of severe cold with single digit lows in NYC, PHL, IAD, etc., moderation that would lift temperatures to normal and then a few degrees above normal would amount to a "major" change from the severe cold. hey don, it sounds the way jb is talking its going to be a sustained changed in patter.what are your thoughts? do you think jb is correct, or do you think we will continue with this cold and potentially snowy patter into and perhaps through february? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 hey don, it sounds the way jb is talking its going to be a sustained changed in patter.what are your thoughts? do you think jb is correct, or do you think we will continue with this cold and potentially snowy patter into and perhaps through february? IMO, this is the kind of pattern change that could last 2 to perhaps 3 weeks. I believe that the last 7-10 days of January will likely witness milder conditons in the East. That moderation probably will not mark an end to winter in the East or Pacific Northwest, as I expect that a colder pattern could begin to evolve beginning possibly as soon as sometime during the first week in February with the EPO trending negative again. Right now, I suspect that PHL, NYC, and BOS will probably see above normal snowfall for February. The Lehigh Valley will probably also do better than it has so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark304 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 A warm up would be very welcome at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm willing to bet that it warms just high enough to give us liquid precip and then we finally get some decent QPF's around the snow hole. Would just be fitting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PNW guy Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 IMO, this is the kind of pattern change that could last 2 to perhaps 3 weeks. I believe that the last 7-10 days of January will likely witness milder conditons in the East. That moderation probably will not mark an end to winter in the East or Pacific Northwest, as I expect that a colder pattern could begin to evolve beginning possibly as soon as sometime during the first week in February with the EPO trending negative again. Right now, I suspect that PHL, NYC, and BOS will probably see above normal snowfall for February. The Lehigh Valley will probably also do better than it has so far. The Pac NW gets screwed again as we are going to torch while the East coast is the BIG winner 2 years in a row. I have given up on "winter" in Seattle this year except for major rains which seem to be possible beginning this week. So I am rooting for 10 inches of rain in the next 10 days!!This is not La Nina for us...it is LA NADA! Next year isn't looking real good either...signs of El Nino are beginning to appear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 IMO, this is the kind of pattern change that could last 2 to perhaps 3 weeks. I believe that the last 7-10 days of January will likely witness milder conditons in the East. That moderation probably will not mark an end to winter in the East or Pacific Northwest, as I expect that a colder pattern could begin to evolve beginning possibly as soon as sometime during the first week in February with the EPO trending negative again. Right now, I suspect that PHL, NYC, and BOS will probably see above normal snowfall for February. The Lehigh Valley will probably also do better than it has so far. Don, what are you thinking for Ottawa? Will the cold air smply lift north, or will we torch too the last 7 days of January? By the way, the 18z GFS seems to have the storm this week hitting us on the 13th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I will take this as seriously as i take his call for winter was over Dec 15th. So this means in JB books the Boxing Storm Blizzard did not happen cause winter was over! The Southeast being below normal in December did not happen because winter was over.. Surprised people even listen to him anymore! Much better mets & non mets on this forum! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I will take this as seriously as i take his call for winter was over Dec 15th. So this means in JB books the Boxing Storm Blizzard did not happen cause winter was over! The Southeast being below normal in December did not happen because winter was over.. Surprised people even listen to him anymore! Much better mets & non mets on this forum! His attempt to recognize and forecast patterns this winter has been abysmal. His attempt to spin those failures into something resembling accuracy, has been breathtaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 His attempt to recognize and forecast patterns this winter has been abysmal. His attempt to spin those failures into something resembling accuracy, has been breathtaking. I generally like JB as a person and find his jokes and humour to be quite entertaining, but have to say that he has busted in a big way this winter. He was on the record this past Fall as saying that winter was over for places south of I-80 once December was done. In fact, he originally thought it would be done by Christmas. Then suddenly, out of the blue, he cuts a video just after New Years saying that a big cold shot was coming and that this would be the coldest January nationwide in the US since 1985! Now accuweather is trying to claim that this has been his forecast since mid December!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 A warm up would be very welcome at this point. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 jb forecasting people will pay to read his smut.. verified! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 JB goes on and on about how cold it has been in the US (and I agree this has been the case the past two winters) but he fails to mention how much eastern Onatrio and southern Quebec have warmed over the past 5 years. With the exception of January 2009, bitter cold has been noticably absent in southern Ontario/Quebec and NNY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 He is busting again right now...this morning he made a string of posts about wanting to watch obs and how we should look at saint simons island GA for a wind shift to the SE showing the low is going west of the models. Been watching SSI all day and the wind has been north every hour. Of course he has stopped posting obs, or at all for that matter all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 He is busting again right now...this morning he made a string of posts about wanting to watch obs and how we should look at saint simons island GA for a wind shift to the SE showing the low is going west of the models. Been watching SSI all day and the wind has been north every hour. Of course he has stopped posting obs, or at all for that matter all day. He needed to run to the bank to deposit Ji's monthly payment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whacker77 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Joe Bastardi could be right, but his track record for January has been pretty bad. In December, he was on Greta Van Sustren's show saying the cold would relax in January while staying very cold in Europe. Clearly, that hasn't happened. It wasn't until last week he finally said January would be the coldest since 1985. Heck, that might not pan out eiher. Still, with a week or so to go in December, he said the GFS was sniffing out a pattern change around New Year's. That lasted all of two days where I live. Like I said, he might be right about the end of Janaury, but I wouldn't use the long range models as proof. They've tried to sniff out pattern changes this winter that haven't occured so far. Piers Corbyn, who's been spot on with the big picture, says his solal/lunar method predicts continued cold and blocking in the eastern part of the US with only mild intervals. Considering he said it wouldn't warm up in January, maybe he is better to believe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Ji should have uploaded the GFS instead of linking to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 JB goes on and on about how cold it has been in the US (and I agree this has been the case the past two winters) but he fails to mention how much eastern Onatrio and southern Quebec have warmed over the past 5 years. With the exception of January 2009, bitter cold has been noticably absent in southern Ontario/Quebec and NNY! Global warming for JB starts and ends with the NE US. The other 99.97% of the world's surface area don't count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Global warming for JB starts and ends with the NE US. The other 99.97% of the world's surface area don't count. That's true but really the Northeast is all that matters anyway! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Would become the best opposite forecast ever if the Euro verifies (-40C 850mb pop for the first time this season, and they are headed for the CONUS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 You've got to laugh. Imagine if the Euro verifies? First JB sad winter was over for areas south of I-80 come mid December. Then it was around New Years. Then it changed and the coldest january in the US since 1985 was at hand. Then massive warm up late January. Now this possible cold outbreak. February 1934, here we come! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Ouch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Global warming weather for JB starts and ends with the NE & MA US. The other 99.97% of the world's surface area don't count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Ouch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 if this cold verifies it will be more pile-on FAIL for JB....I'm almost feeling sorry for the guy at this point. Pretty much the opposite of everything he has predicted this winter has occurred...lol this should be good news for you i-95ers since he's predicting next weeks storm is a cutter and rain for you all.... congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 if this cold verifies it will be more pile-on FAIL for JB....I'm almost feeling sorry for the guy at this point. Pretty much the opposite of everything he has predicted this winter has occurred...lol this should be good news for you i-95ers since he's predicting next weeks storm is a cutter and rain for you all.... congrats Not just him but it just seems unwise to make such bold forecasts about extreme weather far in advance. These forecasts get alot of attention (which is the goal I suppose) but when they bust, as they often do, sure seems like alot of egg on the face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2011 Author Share Posted January 12, 2011 if this cold verifies it will be more pile-on FAIL for JB....I'm almost feeling sorry for the guy at this point. Pretty much the opposite of everything he has predicted this winter has occurred...lol this should be good news for you i-95ers since he's predicting next weeks storm is a cutter and rain for you all.... congrats JB is a complete failure this year. You would thing he would improve as he ages and gets more experience. JB does really well in El Ninos with STJ where its hard to screw up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Not just him but it just seems unwise to make such bold forecasts about extreme weather far in advance. These forecasts get alot of attention (which is the goal I suppose) but when they bust, as they often do, sure seems like alot of egg on the face. This year it seems very iffy to make a forecast of anything much more than 24 hours ahead. Tough for the guys who do it for a living. I don't envy them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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