aldie 22 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 They sort of line up...one map is for Central VA mostly and the E is 2-4 with 5" close to D and the other map is for the Northeast and the 2-5 line is under D which is mostly the same area as E in the other map. confusing yes but I get it sort of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Wait a minute... that's his second call/guess! (as well as the Northeast one!) This was his first guess: http://www.keyweb3.c...11/01/mid1g.jpg or does he differentiate between a "first guess" and a "first call?" First guess comes before first call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 First only and final call for MA: Norfolk 1" slop Richmond 2.5" (dry slot and maybe mix) DC 3" BWI 4.5" Salisbury 4" with mixing Dover 6" Philly 8.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 First guess comes before first call. Yeah, I got the gist of that, but why have two firsts is what I'm asking. EDIT: Got my "answer" from someone on SV saying that it always goes "1st guess, 1st call, final call." Seems like there isn't much emphasis on the difference between "1st guess" and "1st call" other than one is made before the other. Of course there are differences between "guess" and "call," but such differences are relative in nature and can be construed in different ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yeah, I got the gist of that, but why have two firsts is what I'm asking. I don't get his maps at all. One I am in near the 5" line and the other according to his map I am closer to 1". lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 HM (AccW) is probably right for the first time in his career. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 non scientific call - DCA - 0.5" BWI - 1.5" Silver Spring, MD - Coating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 First only and final call for MA: Norfolk 1" slop Richmond 2.5" (dry slot and maybe mix) DC 3" BWI 4.5" Salisbury 4" with mixing Dover 6" Philly 8.5" I would love for Baltimore to get 4-5" but I do not see that happening. But good luck with your call! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Since the storm is 24 hours out from hitting the start of my map, I figured I would issue my final call for the region: Mixing will be a problem for North Carolina, southeastern Virginia and southern Delmarva, which could shift a bit north or south, depending on when, where and how quickly the coastal low can develop. A quicker low development off the East Coast would draw cooler air down from the north and create more snow over the “Mixing” area highlighted on the map. Snow totals have been bumped up for West Virginia and Pennsylvania as the low pressure center over the Midwest will be stronger than originally anticipated, which will help squeeze out more moisture in the western and northern parts of the region. This stronger Midwestern low is also what caused the mixing issues in North Carolina to jump northward, as it will create a stronger southerly flow in that area and will draw warmer mid-level and low-level air northward before the coastal low gets cranking. I'd up amounts in Central and West PA . I was at KUNV for 4.5 years and those events usually busted low if the dryslot didn't make it in. Overall I agree with the call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I would love for Baltimore to get 4-5" but I do not see that happening. But good luck with your call! well i think theres a chance Baltimore and esp places just north and east will get in on a few hours of heavier precip as the coastal strengthens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 well i think theres a chance Baltimore and esp places just north and east will get in on a few hours of heavier precip as the coastal strengthens. I think your scenario is the maximum that BWI can possibly get, or our best case scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'd up amounts in Central and West PA . I was at KUNV for 4.5 years and those events usually busted low if the dryslot didn't make it in. Overall I agree with the call. Interesting observation... I'll keep an eye on that area as well, then. I'll have to also ask the opinions of my co-workers, many of which got their degrees at State College. One other area I'll be concerned about, which I have seen on other forecasts so far, is the snowfall totals in western NC. My estimates are low compared to others, but then again we're talking DT/Henry/JB here, so I'm not that doubtful of my forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I think your scenario is the maximum that BWI can possibly get, or our best case scenario. agreed....just trying to be optimistic for yall. ive done better over here on the Delmarva...had 9 inches so far. lol not really that impressive but not bad considering how these storms have gone this winter. still have 1.5" left from yesterdays little event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 agreed....just trying to be optimistic for yall. ive done better over here on the Delmarva...had 9 inches so far. lol not really that impressive but not bad considering how these storms have gone this winter. still have 1.5" left from yesterdays little event. I have about 2" so far this winter, and got 83" last year. That is the difference between a series of dustings and a series of blizzards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I have about 2" so far this winter, and got 83" last year. That is the difference between a series of dustings and a series of blizzards. yeah last winter was epic, i had 65" over here. This winter is total frustration...even thought i wasn't expecting much due to the La Nina, with the huge block we have had in place and persistently cold temps we have JUST missed on these storms. Congrats coastal Delaware, NJ, and esp SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'll base mine off the first guess I made, since I see no point in going back on it. DCA: 1" IAD: Shade under 1" BWI: 2" 70% <1" 20% 1-3" 7% 3-5" 3% 5+" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Snowfall estimates will have to be bumped up along the southern edge of the snow/mixed area in a lot of the forecasts, including my own... this storm has consistently been able to pull cold air farther south than expected from Louisiana to North Carolina. The Mixing areas could still transition over to FZ/PL/RA later, but not before some significant snow (1-3"+) falls along the coastal areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Constructive comment's + criticisms encouraged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Constructive comment's + criticisms encouraged. If I were you, I'd limit the SW extent of the 3-6" to Cecil county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Constructive comment's + criticisms encouraged. You didn't nowcast for NC/VA? Easily 1-3" for most of eastern NC (Wilmington, NC already has over 7"!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 DCA: 1-2" IAD: 1" BWI: 2-3" MBY: Dusting to half an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Constructive comment's + criticisms encouraged. very wrong for NC. heavy snow in Charlotte, Wilmington, and Fayetteville. all the way to the southeast NC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 You didn't nowcast for NC/VA? Easily 1-3" for most of eastern NC (Wilmington, NC already has over 7"!) The focus of the map was not NC but um... Yeah... Touche. If I were you, I'd limit the SW extent of the 3-6" to Cecil county. Thought about that... I put some 1-3 colored dots around baltimore, to show pockets of 1-3 but it just looked crappy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 bos should be 10"+ imo.. this one should clock them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 You should listen to what other people tell you that you should forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 The focus of the map was not NC but um... Yeah... Touche. S'ok... no one else had big snow (2+ in.) for central/eastern NC and SE VA anyway Agree that SNE could be upped, but it's not a sure thing yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 You should listen to what other people tell you that you should forecast. If this is aimed at me, I'm not sure what your trying to imply. S'ok... no one else had big snow (2+ in.) for central/eastern NC and SE VA anyway Agree that SNE could be upped, but it's not a sure thing yet. I hadn't even noticed until you pointed it out Im sticking with SNE for now. I think (and have thought) h5 and up forces will push this thing out. Though granted this theory is going against the grain of the NAM's evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 If this is aimed at me, I'm not sure what your trying to imply. It's not aimed at you. Your request for feedback is certainly legitimate. Just that some people are telling you what you should do rather than suggest where you might be off...or on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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