Ellinwood Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Since the storm is 24 hours out from hitting the start of my map, I figured I would issue my final call for the region: Mixing will be a problem for North Carolina, southeastern Virginia and southern Delmarva, which could shift a bit north or south, depending on when, where and how quickly the coastal low can develop. A quicker low development off the East Coast would draw cooler air down from the north and create more snow over the “Mixing” area highlighted on the map. Snow totals have been bumped up for West Virginia and Pennsylvania as the low pressure center over the Midwest will be stronger than originally anticipated, which will help squeeze out more moisture in the western and northern parts of the region. This stronger Midwestern low is also what caused the mixing issues in North Carolina to jump northward, as it will create a stronger southerly flow in that area and will draw warmer mid-level and low-level air northward before the coastal low gets cranking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Very realisitc map, 2" is likely around DC with closer to 3-4" in Baltimore and Northeast MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Looks good for the most part. Ballsy going with a final call before others have even made their first with numbers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Since the storm is 24 hours out from hitting the start of my map, I figured I would issue my final call for the region: Mixing will be a problem for North Carolina, southeastern Virginia and southern Delmarva, which could shift a bit north or south, depending on when, where and how quickly the coastal low can develop. A quicker low development off the East Coast would draw cooler air down from the north and create more snow over the “Mixing” area highlighted on the map. Snow totals have been bumped up for West Virginia and Pennsylvania as the low pressure center over the Midwest will be stronger than originally anticipated, which will help squeeze out more moisture in the western and northern parts of the region. This stronger Midwestern low is also what caused the mixing issues in North Carolina to jump northward, as it will create a stronger southerly flow in that area and will draw warmer mid-level and low-level air northward before the coastal low gets cranking. Good luck....I always love to see that circle around my house representing the lowest amounts....I blame your hatred for Ji on that.. j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Looks good for the most part. Ballsy going with a final call before others have even made their first with numbers! The problem is I won't be able to make another map until after the precipitation starts falling in NC tomorrow morning (unless I decided to wait until the 18z stuff came in later today), and I'm not a fan of having a forecast start in the past. My maps run approx. 12z-12z for the days, and if I were to make a map tomorrow it wouldn't be until about 16z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Good luck....I always love to see that circle around my house representing the lowest amounts....I blame your hatred for Ji on that.. j/k Stop living in Leesburg It boggles my mind sometimes when people like Ji complain about less snow when they know darn well that their area is prone to getting less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Stop living in Leesburg It boggles my mind sometimes when people like Ji complain about less snow when they know darn well that their area is prone to getting less Funny....really though my time here (6 years) I have noticed one thing about this area...sucks for thunderstorms because of the proximity to the mountains..and also is often modeled to be on the fringe for snowstorms and yet always ends up with comparable and often times higher snow totals than most. Can't always live on the edge but my guess is this storm will be no different and when the numbers come in we may have very similar totals as the higher numbers. Anywho good/bad luck with your forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Good luck with your call! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Looks good for the most part. Ballsy going with a final call before others have even made their first with numbers! I think Henry and JB have had a final for days. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Stop living in Leesburg It boggles my mind sometimes when people like Ji complain about less snow when they know darn well that their area is prone to getting less I don't think that is true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I think Henry and JB have had a final for days. lol. Do they have degrees or do they just sleep at holiday inn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 I don't think that is true. At least it seems like it, but that could be based on the way people post on here. I need to find that average yearly snowfall map you posted about a week back. It seems like they're in the screw zone with the coastal storms, as would any more-interior area, but small-scale upsloping that the models don't catch could certainly bump the totals up in NoVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Do they have degrees or do they just sleep at holiday inn? I know JB does, Henry seems to love. I looked at the facebook of the guy who ranted about me on CWG and he's a member of the Henry fan club. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Do they have degrees or do they just sleep at holiday inn? Love that commercial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 At least it seems like it, but that could be based on the way people post on here. I need to find that average yearly snowfall map you posted about a week back. It seems like they're in the screw zone with the coastal storms, as would any more-interior area, but small-scale upsloping that the models don't catch could certainly bump the totals up in NoVA. Leesburg averages about 23" of snow per year or just a tick above IAD screw zone for miller b but sweet spot for true miller a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Here's Henry's map (not sure if it's final): 6"+ for I-95 from DC to BOS? Ballsy for areas south of PHL. (looks like the 12z NAM from today!) Also, he needs to fix his legend to match the colors on the map... it's a pet peeve of mine (probably has to do with how he uses the opacity of the colors on his map) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Looks good for the most part. Ballsy going with a final call before others have even made their first with numbers! Agree on timing of final call. Final calls should not be before Monday PM IMHO -- at least for VA/MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Stop living in Leesburg It boggles my mind sometimes when people like Ji complain about less snow when they know darn well that their area is prone to getting less Surely you're joking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 lol at Henry M. I expect a total much closer to 0.6" than 6"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Agree on timing of final call. Final calls should not be before Monday PM IMHO. For DC and north, I could agree. Please note that the forecast area will start receiving precip. less than 24 hours from the release time, and I can't make any adjustments tomorrow morning beforehand (I'll be at work!). Surely you're joking So I made a mistake in my statement that NoVA gets less... could you blame me given the way people post on here? I need to permanently stick the regional annual snowfall map next to my computer just so I can laugh at people more when there is an outcry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Since the storm is 24 hours out from hitting the start of my map, I figured I would issue my final call for the region: Mixing will be a problem for North Carolina, southeastern Virginia and southern Delmarva, which could shift a bit north or south, depending on when, where and how quickly the coastal low can develop. A quicker low development off the East Coast would draw cooler air down from the north and create more snow over the “Mixing” area highlighted on the map. Snow totals have been bumped up for West Virginia and Pennsylvania as the low pressure center over the Midwest will be stronger than originally anticipated, which will help squeeze out more moisture in the western and northern parts of the region. This stronger Midwestern low is also what caused the mixing issues in North Carolina to jump northward, as it will create a stronger southerly flow in that area and will draw warmer mid-level and low-level air northward before the coastal low gets cranking. nice first guess, although i would go a bit higher in NE MD, upper Delmarva and south Jersey away from the coast. 12z NAM has .70 for Dover, which should be all snow, maybe a period of sleet mixed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 nice first guess, although i would go a bit higher in NE MD, upper Delmarva and south Jersey away from the coast. 12z NAM has .70 for Dover, which should be all snow, maybe a period of sleet mixed in. It's a final guess Sorry to say that hugging the NAM is probably a bad idea at this point.GFS and ECMWF both have it in the 0.25-0.5" QPF range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 At least it seems like it, but that could be based on the way people post on here. I need to find that average yearly snowfall map you posted about a week back. It seems like they're in the screw zone with the coastal storms, as would any more-interior area, but small-scale upsloping that the models don't catch could certainly bump the totals up in NoVA. with stuff coming in from the west i could see them avging lower than the rest of the area but the vast majority of yr to yr snowfall must come from coastals http://www.weatherwarrior.net/images/md-snow-avg.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 with stuff coming in from the west i could see them avging lower than the rest of the area but the vast majority of yr to yr snowfall must come from coastals http://www.weatherwa...md-snow-avg.gif Thanks for the map re-post... didn't realize it's from Jason's site It does seem like NoVA and the WV/MD panhandles are a bit of a screw-zone compared to their surrounding areas, but they still fare better than the DC region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Thanks for the map re-post... didn't realize it's from Jason's site It does seem like NoVA and the WV/MD panhandles are a bit of a screw-zone compared to their surrounding areas, but they still fare better than the DC region. i think a lot of that is elevation -- valleys vs higher.. some shadowing perhaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 i think a lot of that is elevation -- valleys vs higher.. some shadowing perhaps That's my interpretation of it, along with some coastal fringe/dryslotting here and there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 DT still thinks Baltimore can get significant snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 I like how D could be 3-6 or 5-8... why not just say 3-8, or split them into two different areas? He's certainly trying to give himself plenty of wiggle room with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 DT is not very consistent.....here he says 2-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 DT is not very consistent.....here he says 2-5" Wait a minute... that's his second call/guess! (as well as the Northeast one!) This was his first guess: http://www.keyweb3.c...11/01/mid1g.jpg or does he differentiate between a "first guess" and a "first call?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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