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January 9-10 Winter Storm Obs Thread


MotoWeatherman

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I have never ever seen snow so hard in my life down here in Lexington, SC.

I know. I'm in West Columbia. Got up early to see what was happening. The ground was white but driveway, deck, and road were barely covered. I went to take a quick shower. Now everything is covered I would say we are getting close to an inch on the ground already. Really coming down! Just wish it would do this all day with NO ice

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There will always be a snow hole in these situations. The radar beam is tilted at a 0.5 degree angle, therefore away from the radar site in Garner you start to rise in altitude. Thus away from the radar you are picking up virga and not snow at the surface. Since Raleigh is very close to the NEXRAD site it will not show returns over the county until snow is actually reaching the ground, thus you have the apperance of a snow hole but iit really isnt. Check the surface obs, the closest snow reports are down near Fort Brag and Fayetteville.

Right, I understand the Virga concept but at the same time the atmosphere does appear that it is drying out quite a bit just to our west. Am I wrong about that? I was looking at your reflectivity page just a moment ago which shows the greens just to our south and west. It looks to be making steady movement to the north and east, you think this will reach us or is this 'blocking high' that Elizabeth Gardner of WRAL talking about hold fast and keep it out? She did mention that in reality it does seem to be making its way to us and might have to revise their forecast.

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Wow, is it really that much of a difference between Lake Murray and CAE? I knew Northern Lexington was going to get thumped, but not as hard as this looks to be in the end. It's probably over 2" an hour easily.. and looks like since my house is towards the North part, we will squeak by here with minimal ice reading the meso discussion.

I haven't had time to read all the reports yet so I'm not sure of the difference in amounts. I'm just happy it's sn instead of zr I'm waking up to :P:D

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Models blew the QPF up here man....all were trending wetter and wetter yet it just didn't pan out. Still a good snow though despite the lower QPF.

radar filling in the to he SW of me in Livonia - I will get a good amount. However, I never would have guessed that due east of the ATL area would be the winner....

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Yea this isn't the big QPF producing the models had the last couple of runs.... Some areas might approach 8"-12" but i'm sorta doubting that anyone gets a foot anymore. Oh well.

gun_bandana.gifDon't like hearing that guess the NAM is finally pulling it's usual tricks of coming in wetter and wetter only to not verify.

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I know. I'm in West Columbia. Got up early to see what was happening. The ground was white but driveway, deck, and road were barely covered. I went to take a quick shower. Now everything is covered I would say we are getting close to an inch on the ground already. Really coming down! Just wish it would do this all day with NO ice

The new run of the RUC really wants to keep 850's cold enough at LEAST through 8AM around Lexington and CAE. Super heavy returns to our south heading this way. The GFS had put out 6" on the last few runs and well.. it looks totally possible now if this changeover doesn't happen as early as we thought. Especially since we started at around 12am instead of 4-8am with the snow. :)

Edit, got the new frames. Looks like a 10-11am change over time and I believe that will minimize the ice to the .25 range most if the RUC is right.

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Right, I understand the Virga concept but at the same time the atmosphere does appear that it is drying out quite a bit just to our west. Am I wrong about that? I was looking at your reflectivity page just a moment ago which shows the greens just to our south and west. It looks to be making steady movement to the north and east, you think this will reach us or is this 'blocking high' that Elizabeth Gardner of WRAL talking about hold fast and keep it out? She did mention that in reality it does seem to be making its way to us and might have to revise their forecast.

The models have been insistent that the precip hits a wall about 50 miles southwest of Raleigh. Very dry air in the lowest few thousand feet is hte main culprit. HOwever what if the models are a little too dry? Or underestimate the lift a bit? Or are just off by 50 miles? These things happen so it is certainly worth watching trends the next few hours. The latest RUC gives Raleigh 2 inches of snow by 00z. I still think we probably see little more than light flurries before 3pm, but we will see.

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28.4 outside and switching back to light snow after a heavier sleet storm here near PDK. The nice fluffy snow from earlier now has a harder sleet top to it. Walked up to I-85 only to find scattered cars moving and a few abandoned cars already. Amazing to see 12 lanes of interstate completely snow covered.

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Looks like GSP should have kept their original call map with me getting six inches. :arrowhead: I doubt i'll get the 10+ they're predicting.

We are getting hit good and about to get hit really really good down here. You have plenty of moisture on the way and with this delayed warm nose from recent trends down here and your ratios being quite a bit higher, you should really get close. Even Atlanta just switched back over to snow.

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