Baum Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 been lurking, the system will bum out anyone north of I80, i'm thinking a drawn out 1.5" sounds about right. bingo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Are you using GFS? For DTW, 18z NAM gives 0.30" while 18z GFS gives less (idk how much yet, probably 0.20" or so). If the ratios are what he says then my hunch is that is based off the GFS. I am wondering that as well? Anyways it looks like the ensembles are going down in flames as they had ( still do i believe? ) remained constant with everything being further north. Pretty interesting stuff. Who knows the runs today could be a blip and the ensembles could end up right but it is hard to argue for further north when we have not seen it so far this winter. Anything is possible ofcourse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 ILN made a map. I think its too sw/ne oriented and the heavier area should be more along I-70 imo. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/iln/headline.php?head=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Anyone here thinbk that the models will track more to the north and bring snow back intp southern ontario? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxologist Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Up here atleast this wont be anything like that. Not even close. Unsure of what would be a good analog for this? IMO...this is the best analog qualitatively. http://www.eas.slu.e...H=0&map=4panelA Yes...the upper-level mass fields are closed off but the low-level mass fields and moisture are very good. This "event" snow map needs to be fixed as the snow over OK and AR was from a lead system (actually much like what they are getting over the deep south right now). This is an excellent event analog though. So in the Midwest...focus on the snow that fell on the 29th and 30th in the next two links. http://www.eas.slu.e...HH=-72&map=COSN http://www.eas.slu.e...HH=-48&map=COSN So a pretty unorganized snow field over MO, IL, and IN and I wouldn't be surprised if this is what will end up happening. There just is a lack of low-level organization and moisture IMO to get an organized area of >6" snowfall in the Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 If the ratios are what he says then my hunch is that is based off the GFS. I am wondering that as well? Anyways it looks like the ensembles are going down in flames as they had ( still do i believe? ) remained constant with everything being further north. Pretty interesting stuff. Who knows the runs today could be a blip and the ensembles could end up right but it is hard to argue for further north when we have not seen it so far this winter. Anything is possible ofcourse. Well, our current snowcover after settling and sun is still about 2" (a spot here and there is 1" but overall definitely average of 2"), so any new snow would be welcomed since we arent exactly starting from scratch, but i still dont know... 18z GFS was way down with qpf at DTW of only 0.13", while as mentioned NAM stayed firm actually nudged up a bit to 0.30". It wasnt until 12z yesterday that the GFS/EURO caught onto to any real snow making it here though their ensembles held firm for days. Looking at the 18z gfs ens mean they have the 0.25"+ zone right at the state line so they did nudge down a bit, but the 0.10-0.25" goes all the way up into nearly the U.P. versus the OP making it to barely Flint. The GEM has been very consistent for many days as well, by far the first model to pick up on us getting any snow and everyone said its an outlier. So I still dont know what to think. I guess even if we get 1-2" it should be considered a win because until yesterday everyone wrote off any snow for us. But i still think a 2-5" event is a decent bet. Just dont know lol. And just after I had mentioned us being in a zone of pretty good agreement with the model qpf, this happens lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Anyone here thinbk that the models will track more to the north and bring snow back intp southern ontario? 18z GEFS finally capitulated. You can probably stick a fork in this one, although I'd wait for the 0z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Well, our current snowcover after settling and sun is still about 2" (a spot here and there is 1" but overall definitely average of 2"), so any new snow would be welcomed since we arent exactly starting from scratch, but i still dont know... 18z GFS was way down with qpf at DTW of only 0.13", while as mentioned NAM stayed firm actually nudged up a bit to 0.30". It wasnt until 12z yesterday that the GFS/EURO caught onto to any real snow making it here though their ensembles held firm for days. The GEM has been very consistent for many days as well. So I still dont know what to think. And just after I had mentioned us being in a zone of pretty good agreement with the model qpf, this happens lol. Yeah it is a very hard call out that way. I just know ( based on history) that you guys can usually score a few inches atleast ( especially you as you are further se of all in se MI ) with a surface low track in se/e.Ohio. Most of them have that atleast. The QPF will probably change right up till storm time which you probably know as well. Yes bullseye ( 4-8 ) looks to be IND/LAF/CMH-Ohio/along and near i70 but i can see a few inches sneaking into se MI. Thats me anyways. Maybe a inch or so around these parts back to Chicago but thats about it. Ofcourse they could get some help via the lake in Chicago-ne.IL/n.IN. Tougher call with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Are you using GFS? For DTW, 18z NAM gives 0.30" while 18z GFS gives less (idk how much yet, probably 0.20" or so). No I was using the mesoNAM (NAMM) for DTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 If the ratios are what he says then my hunch is that is based off the GFS. I am wondering that as well? Anyways it looks like the ensembles are going down in flames as they had ( still do i believe? ) remained constant with everything being further north. Pretty interesting stuff. Who knows the runs today could be a blip and the ensembles could end up right but it is hard to argue for further north when we have not seen it so far this winter. Anything is possible ofcourse. I was using the mesoNAM Harry....sorry I got a little busy here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 I was using the mesoNAM Harry....sorry I got a little busy here. It is cool. Can't be helped. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Local TV guy here has 1-2"/2-3" for Tippecanoe Co. Seems reasonable to me. I really like 2-4" for LAF, with the heaviest stripe (4-7") from STL to IND to CMH to CLE. Not to completely ignore out west, where the western 1/2 of IA down to the KC area could pick up anywhere from 5-9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 6-7" reports in NE and 2-4" in nw IA so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 SREFS have left the building. It's going to be a race to see whether I see any snow from this at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Is winter over yet? My apartment room is freezing, and I had to put that plastic shrink stuff on to keep it warm. <--- NOT a fan of winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NAM is a bit deeper on this run and looks like it brings better qpf a bit farther north (comparing to 18z). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NAM is a bit deeper on this run and looks like it brings better qpf a bit farther north (comparing to 18z). Yes. Not as bad as I was expecting. I'm hoping the bias of collapsing the primary low too quickly is in play here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NAM also shows the possibility of lake enhancement for Chicago and far nw IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Man does NYC get spanked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 the 5h looks much nicer than 18z, closes faster and is stronger as it passes across IN and OH....but it didn't really translate into much improvement precip-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NAM also shows the possibility of lake enhancement for Chicago and far nw IN. Yes, this should boost totals at least modestly before it transitions into a pure LES event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioValleyWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I see nothing to change from a moderate event for the I-70 corridor in IND and W OH. I had 6-8" north of 70 and 4-6" south of 70. Specifics will still need to be fine tuned but by midday Wednesday I like 6" right across 70. .36 for DAY, feel that it starts out at 16 or 17 to 1 but a solid .25 falls at 20 to 1 with 850s -8 or lower and the last .10 below -12 C and we are getting in that 30 to 1 ratio range. I am not going higher than 6 for the area but a ribbon of 7 to 8 inches somewhere across Cent, E Cent IN, W and W Cent Oh into C Ohio could be witnessed. Josh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 sorry, know this isn't a regional comment but wow, that donut hole screw zone is frighteningly close to DC area again. Ouch if they get donut holed again during a storm that clobbbers philly north...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Pretty good. Improvement of the 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 sorry, know this isn't a regional comment but wow, that donut hole screw zone is frighteningly close to DC area again. Ouch if they get donut holed again during a storm that clobbbers philly north...lol This makes me happy, the mass hysteria in NYC is going to be LOL worthy again too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NAM looking good for the Ohio Valley to eastern Lakes, but good grief, look at that big crater over east-central Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Pretty good. Improvement of the 18z NAM Yeah, probably decent ratios too although those'll be mitigated by a feed of dry air on the north side of the pcpn shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 12/08/05 for DTX's area in case people were wondering, decent share the wealth system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I see nothing to change from a moderate event for the I-70 corridor in IND and W OH. I had 6-8" north of 70 and 4-6" south of 70. Specifics will still need to be fine tuned but by midday Wednesday I like 6" right across 70. .36 for DAY, feel that it starts out at 16 or 17 to 1 but a solid .25 falls at 20 to 1 with 850s -8 or lower and the last .10 below -12 C and we are getting in that 30 to 1 ratio range. I am not going higher than 6 for the area but a ribbon of 7 to 8 inches somewhere across Cent, E Cent IN, W and W Cent Oh into C Ohio could be witnessed. Josh well i like the trend of a slightly stronger 5h low and 850 low as they move across IN and OH.....the precip details will take care of themselves. In an ideal world for mby, I'd like to see everything a smidge south, so hopefully a little more 5h digging in future runs. btw i've always figured here in cmh that 3-5 is mod, 5+ is heavy. The reality is 5+ events are relatively rare here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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