Hoosier Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yep, trends on their way down here too. At this point, if I had to make a forecast for the IND CWA, I'd go 2-3" for the northern/northwestern 1/4 (LAF, OKK) and 3-5" for everyone else (IND, HUF, MIE) with some lollis of 6" from IND to just south of MIE. Further downgrades may be necessary for the northern areas (LAF, OKK) as well. Yay, your debbie downer side is back in full swing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 ILN going ws watch for southern cwa. http://www.erh.noaa....ILN&versions=36 yea, sounds like it has to do with those counties having less of a criteria to meet then the northern counties. Overall fairly widespread 3-5" Sounds good. 18znam tends to dry a little for some reason. I would bet it moistens back u at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yay, your debbie downer side is back in full swing! I won't be here for it anyway. Of course last time I left town, LAF had their biggest storm of the season (12/24). Hmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 yea, sounds like it has to do with those counties having less of a criteria to meet then the northern counties. Overall fairly widespread 3-5" Sounds good. 18znam tends to dry a little for some reason. I would bet it moistens back u at 00z. Congrats dude. Not looking so hot around here but you have waited long enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Congrats dude. Not looking so hot around here but you have waited long enough. thnx... our first potential 'storm' (word used lightly), of the season although it looks to be a minor leaguer....it's just gotta beat the mid december midwest/OV clusterf+ck storm for my prediction of biggest so far to come true here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 A little humor from the new DVN AFD .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY... SOMETIMES ITS BETTER TO BE LUCKY THAN GOOD. THE CWA JUST TO OUR WEST...DMX...WILL BE NEARLY COMPLETELY IMPACTED BY SNOW FROM NOW THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AND BEYOND...MEANWHILE...OUR CWA SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. THE ONSET OF SNOW LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL VERY LATE MORNING...OR MID AFTERNOON IN THE FAR WEST...AS VERY SLOW TOP DOWN SATURATION FINALLY OVERCOMES THE DRY EASTERLY FLOW. EVEN AS SATURATION OCCURS...ALLOWING FLAKES TO THE SURFACE...THE DRY FEED AND WEAK FORCING SHOULD KEEP AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT THROUGH 6 PM. THE WORST I CAN SEE IS A HALF TO ONE IN SNOW IN THE WESTERN 1/2 OF OUR WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Lol one nasty screw zone in N IL.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yep, trends on their way down here too. At this point, if I had to make a forecast for the IND CWA, I'd go 2-3" for the northern/northwestern 1/4 (LAF, OKK) and 3-5" for everyone else (IND, HUF, MIE) with some lollis of 6" from IND to just south of MIE. Further downgrades may be necessary for the northern areas (LAF, OKK) as well. HPC thinks differently... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 thnx... our first potential 'storm' (word used lightly), of the season although it looks to be a minor leaguer....it's just gotta beat the mid december midwest/OV clusterf+ck storm for my prediction of biggest so far to come true here. Could be better then anything i have gotten so far this winter which is 5" thanks to the lake stuff the other day. Enjoy! Lol one nasty screw zone in N IL.. I have noticed that both there and here or close to here. Not looking good for us. It rarely is good when a surface low tracks down by the river to se/e.OH. We need it to track close to/along i70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 don't forget rastio's will be 15/20/maybe25-1 in many cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 HPC thinks differently... Seems a bit reasonable considering surface low track etc along the river ( typical i70 special track ) although i think se MI may sneak in the 4+ zone too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 HPC thinks differently... Meh. We'll see. 10% chance of 8"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 LOT ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AFTERNOON GOES VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS JET STREAK SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT BASIN. VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PROPAGATING THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AROUND BASE OF AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MIDDAY MONDAY. HEIGHT FALLS INDUCED ACROSS THE MIDWEST RESULT IN BROAD AREA OF STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN DEVELOPING AREA OF SNOW WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS HEIGHT FALLS DEVELOP INTO IL/INDIANA MONDAY NIGHT... SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION STRENGTHENS BENEATH REGION OF FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET. QUESTIONS REMAIN WITH HOW QUICKLY LOWER LEVELS WILL SATURATE THANKS TO DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT SNOW SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD BY EARLY TUESDAY AS SURFACE LOW CONSOLIDATES OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN IL. MODEL QPF BLEND REASONABLE IN TAKING HIGHER LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PARTS OF CWA GIVEN TRACK OF VORT/SFC LOW. ASSESSMENT OF BUFFER SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH WRF/GFS ACROSS THE REGION SUGGESTS SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 16:1 AS AN AVERAGE SO HAVE BASED SNOWFALL AMOUNT FORECAST FROM QPF BASED ON THAT. BY THE TIME SNOW TAPERS OFF TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT...CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR SNOWFALL GENERALLY IN 3-5 INCH RANGE ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA...WITH 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS FARTHER TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. STILL SOME UNCERTANTY AT THIS POINT HOWEVER...WITH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DRY LOW LEVELS AT ONSET...AS WELL AS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS NORTHEAST IL ESPECIALLY TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE STRONGLY NE AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS OFF TO THE SOUTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Meh. We'll see. 10% chance of 8"? Well, 10% chance so not very high. I don't see why we won't have 15 to 20:1 ratios throughout the event. Deep DGZ with good moisture/lift and light winds all suggest high ratios are likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 LOT 16:1 AS AN AVERAGE SO HAVE BASED SNOWFALL AMOUNT FORECAST FROM QPF BASED ON THAT. BY THE TIME SNOW TAPERS OFF TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT...CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR SNOWFALL GENERALLY IN 3-5 INCH RANGE ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA...WITH 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS FARTHER TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. STILL SOME UNCERTANTY AT THIS POINT HOWEVER...WITH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DRY LOW LEVELS AT ONSET...AS WELL AS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS NORTHEAST IL ESPECIALLY TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE STRONGLY NE AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS OFF TO THE SOUTH. 2-4? I'll take it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 LOT I could see advisory amounts farther south and possibly near the lake. Alek has been strangely quiet. I thought he'd be here with a 1" inland 2" lakeside call by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxologist Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 While browsing the CIPS analogs, I noticed the 2/9/10 and 1/7/10 events were included. FYI...for those that were wondering if Dec 8 2005 was in the top analogs...it is on this mornings 12z gfs run. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=CENT&model=GFS212&fhr=048&flg=new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 ILN .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING IN AN INCREASINGLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE TO THE OHIO VALLEY. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS SUGGESTING A QUICK START TO SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT...SPREADING NORTHEAST AND BEING PRETTY MUCH OVER ENTIRE CWA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW IS AT THE OH/WV/KY CONFLUENCE AT 18Z TUESDAY. THE EARLIER CONCERN WHERE A DOUBLE BARREL LOW WITH FEATURES ON THE WEST AND EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS SOMETIMES SEES THE ENERGY TRANSLATE ALL TO THE EAST IS NOT TOO MUCH OF A CONCERN. SEEING H8 CUTOFF LOW ON ALL MODELS NEAR DAYTON METRO AT 18Z TUE HAS ME CERTAIN THAT THE TRANSLATION OF ENERGY TO THE EAST WON`T BE A CONCERN...AND THAT MORE ENERGY MIGHT WORK INTO OUR CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 FYI...for those that were wondering if Dec 8 2005 was in the top analogs...it is on this mornings 12z gfs run. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=CENT&model=GFS212&fhr=048&flg=new Up here atleast this wont be anything like that. Not even close. Unsure of what would be a good analog for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 FYI...for those that were wondering if Dec 8 2005 was in the top analogs...it is on this mornings 12z gfs run. http://www.eas.slu.e...fhr=048&flg=new I'm not sure if that's the storm when I got around 16" here in S/E Mi, 3-7" were expected. Woke up to a blizzard outside, with 3" p/h snowfall, one of the best storms for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I could see advisory amounts farther south and possibly near the lake. Alek has been strangely quiet. I thought he'd be here with a 1" inland 2" lakeside call by now. been lurking, the system will bum out anyone north of I80, i'm thinking a drawn out 1.5" sounds about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm not sure if that's the storm when I got around 16" here in S/E Mi, 3-7" were expected. Woke up to a blizzard outside, with 3" p/h snowfall, one of the best storms for me. Posted this in the other thread. Here was the totals out this way ( GRR ) with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I could see advisory amounts farther south and possibly near the lake. Alek has been strangely quiet. I thought he'd be here with a 1" inland 2" lakeside call by now. [alek]0.3-0.6" lakeshore, 1-2" out west and down south.[/alek] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Up here atleast this wont be anything like that. Not even close. Unsure of what would be a good analog for this? Everything on that list is a good analog based on the attributes that are scored. The problem is when we get down to what we all really care about the most (i.e. how much snow in our backyard), what's a good match in yours might not be good in mine or someone elses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Everything on that list is a good analog based on the attributes that are scored. The problem is when we get down to what we all really care about the most (i.e. how much snow in our backyard), what's a good match in yours might not be good in mine or someone elses. Pretty much.. Again i just don't see the similarities with it. This is weaker/further south with everything and ofcourse much different results here at the surface which yeah is the most important for most people anyways. I see a analog to a storm and i tend to think of a system that is similar in track/snowfall amounts, strength etc. One here in Battle Creek could say Jan 78 blizzard was a analog to Jan 67 because of similar rare high snowfall amounts/high winds etc ( almost on exact same day too ) but would most others agree? I doubt it and rightfully so. BTW I have heard people say that here as well. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 <br /><br /><br /> HPC thinks differently...<br /> <br /><br /><br />I can't zoom in on the phone...is top right the 8" map? Sent from my Droid using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Seems a bit reasonable considering surface low track etc along the river ( typical i70 special track ) although i think se MI may sneak in the 4+ zone too. Looking at Bufkit and using a 16:1 ratio would give southeast Mich about 3.1 inches. Looking at the dynamics and tracks of the 850 and 700 lows to me it looks like areas between I 70 and I 80/90....with closest to I 70 the highest....seem to have the best potential....especially in Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 yes it is swath of 10% 8" across central ind i would still be surprised to see ind go with any kind of advisory even with high confidence they almost always wait until the last minute and play it close to the vest SINCE THIS IS ADVISORY CRITERA AND DOES NOT LOOK TO REALLY START TO ACCUMULATE UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY HEADLINES AT THE MOMENT. WILL ISSUE AN SPS THOUGH TO INDICATE THAT RUSH HOUR TUESDAY MORNING MAY BE A MESS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Looking at Bufkit and using a 16:1 ratio would give southeast Mich about 3.1 inches. Looking at the dynamics and tracks of the 850 and 700 lows to me it looks like areas between I 70 and I 80/90....with closest to I 70 the highest....seem to have the best potential....especially in Ohio. Are you using GFS? For DTW, 18z NAM gives 0.30" while 18z GFS gives less (idk how much yet, probably 0.20" or so). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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