Chicago WX Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Hmm...can't seem to get access to the 12z EURO from either plymouth or PSU. Developing coastal sucks the life out of the weak primary. Almost like there's a wall around YYZ, and you're on the wrong side of it...for the lack of a better description. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Developing coastal sucks the life out of the weak primary. Almost like there's a wall around YYZ, and you're on the wrong side of it...for the lack of a better description. Sounds familiar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Sounds familiar. Yeah. But you're in a LES belt now, don't worry about this boring synoptic snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Hmm...can't seem to get access to the 12z EURO from either plymouth or PSU. ULL shifting south and E, less heights on the east coast, quicker developing coastal, trough shifted further east, davis block more influential bad trends that started with 00z euro last night and have continued today on all modeling, not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yeah. But you're in a LES belt now, don't worry about this boring synoptic snow. its a new regime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I think in the afternoon updates, parts of IL/IN and maybe OH will put watches up and decide later on advisory/warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I think in the afternoon updates, parts of IL/IN and maybe OH will put watches up and decide later on advisory/warnings. I'd agree and with the latest models coming in showing anywhere between .3 and .4 QPF and with enhanced lift, higher than normal snow ratios, could be looking at a warning event snow across parts of Indiana and Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yeah. But you're in a LES belt now, don't worry about this boring synoptic snow. Funny, funny. If it wasn't for yesterday, I'd be 5 posted right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'd agree and with the latest models coming in showing anywhere between .3 and .4 QPF and with enhanced lift, higher than normal snow ratios, could be looking at a warning event snow across parts of Indiana and Ohio. I like high end advisory for most of the area. Suppose there could be some isolated warning criteria amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I like high end advisory for most of the area. Suppose there could be some isolated warning criteria amounts. I would say the better chance for warning criteria will be the Northern portions of LMK's area and ILN's area where warning threshold is 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I would say the better chance for warning criteria will be the Northern portions of LMK's area and ILN's area where warning threshold is 4 inches. Good point. I forgot about the lower criteria in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Nam has .40+ here in qpf. Gem and gfs are betwen .20 and .25 and the euro is .25 other hi res models in the .3-.35 range. so I will take it that my area gets .25-.30 or so liquid. given the factors involved. I expect that to translate to 5 inches. I will get 5 inches. which if that happens.. this would have been the best winter so far in my adult life and probably since 1991 or around those parts. we would have had 3.2 inches, 5 inches, then another 5 inches. on top fo 3 events that gave us ice, heavy snow, and heavy sleet with no accums. also saw amazing severe weather. IT IS ALSO COLD. Great Winter. GFS still advertising over running ice to snow here next week. Keep it up snow gods and I promise Carrie Underwood will spend the weekend with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I like high end advisory for most of the area. Suppose there could be some isolated warning criteria amounts. Could very well be that in the end but i think for now they would go with a watch to get people alerted and when it becomes time to upgrade, they can then decide on advisory/warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guru Of Reason Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Nam has .40+ here in qpf. Gem and gfs are betwen .20 and .25 and the euro is .25 other hi res models in the .3-.35 range. so I will take it that my area gets .25-.30 or so liquid. given the factors involved. I expect that to translate to 5 inches. I will get 5 inches. which if that happens.. this would have been the best winter so far in my adult life and probably since 1991 or around those parts. we would have had 3.2 inches, 5 inches, then another 5 inches. on top fo 3 events that gave us ice, heavy snow, and heavy sleet with no accums. also saw amazing severe weather. IT IS ALSO COLD. Great Winter. GFS still advertising over running ice to snow here next week. Keep it up snow gods and I promise Carrie Underwood will spend the weekend with you. Hopefully, Lambert goes below zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Interesting that for many folks the models are in quite the disagreement right now, but for DTW they are remarkably consistent around 0.25"-0.30". The ensembles look a little better. If everything holds, I could see this being a nice 2-6" snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I love how looking at the precip. total maps it looks like the snow falls apart once it hits Lake Michigan and then reforms once it gets east of Grand Rapids. Will we get any synoptic snow this winter? Sigh....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Could very well be that in the end but i think for now they would go with a watch to get people alerted and when it becomes time to upgrade, they can then decide on advisory/warnings. It would be a good idea, but you never know with ILN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 It would be a good idea, but you never know with ILN +100 my thoughts exactly. Just depends on what forecaster you get at the time of forecast issuance and what side of the bed they woke up on. Very inconsistent office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 IND thinking 3-5", maybe locally higher amounts. Snippet from their new AFD: FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...FOR THE MOMENT HAVE A GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCH TOTAL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY BE SEEN IF BANDING SETS UP...AS WELL AS IF LAKE EFFECT BANDS REACH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SINCE THIS IS ADVISORY CRITERA AND DOES NOT LOOK TO REALLY START TO ACCUMULATE UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY HEADLINES AT THE MOMENT. WILL ISSUE AN SPS THOUGH TO INDICATE THAT RUSH HOUR TUESDAY MORNING MAY BE A MESS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 IND's afternoon AFD SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/ FOCUS IS ON THE UPCOMING SNOW EVENT. MODELS ARE ACTUALLY PRETTY CLOSE WITH MOST FEATURES...INCLUDING SNOW AMOUNTS. THUS TOOK A BLEND. MONDAY WILL BE DRY BUT WITH THICKENING CLOUDS. WILL GO MOSTLY CLOUDY...THOUGH THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA SHOULD STILL SEE SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE FOR A WHILE. MAV LOOKS TOO WARM GIVEN SNOW COVER AND CLOUD COVER SO CUT IT A LITTLE. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN. HOWEVER THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY...ALLOWING SNOW TO EVAPORATE AT FIRST. THUS HAVE LOWERED POPS SOME DURING MONDAY EVENING. DURING THE OVERNIGHT MOST AREAS SHOULD SATURATE ENOUGH FOR MEASURABLE SNOW. WILL GO LIKELY OR HIGHER MOST AREAS AFTER 06Z. MAV/MET ARE SIMILAR AND LOOK OK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS. MOST OF THE SNOW WILL FALL ON TUESDAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...BUT THE UPPER SYSTEM INCLUDING THE 700 MB LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET WILL CREATE DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. QVECTOR PROGS SHOW GOOD FORCING ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION...SOME FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BE AROUND AS WELL. GIVEN ALL OF THIS WILL GO CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE EAST...CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL DECREASE TUESDAY EVENING. TROUGHING STILL WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...AND SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BEGIN. THUS FEEL THAT LIKELY POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING...WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT THE FORCING DECREASES SOME...SO WENT JUST CHANCE POPS. ON WEDNESDAY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. MODELS ALSO SHOW SOME ADDITIONAL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACROSS THE AREA...SO WENT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OR NO POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF. FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...FOR THE MOMENT HAVE A GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCH TOTAL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY BE SEEN IF BANDING SETS UP...AS WELL AS IF LAKE EFFECT BANDS REACH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SINCE THIS IS ADVISORY CRITERA AND DOES NOT LOOK TO REALLY START TO ACCUMULATE UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY HEADLINES AT THE MOMENT. WILL ISSUE AN SPS THOUGH TO INDICATE THAT RUSH HOUR TUESDAY MORNING MAY BE A MESS. FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY STUCK CLOSE TO MAV/MET AS BOTH LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 i see PIT went for a watch for all their eastern OH counties..... I'd be surprised if ILN doesn't hoist the first one of the season with an asteriks denoting it's a very changeable situation. Looks like so far my call from a week ago that this would come further north bringing us...potentially....our greatest snow of the season to date might just have been correct. This blind squirrel getting ready to celebrate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 i see PIT went for a watch for all their eastern OH counties..... I'd be surprised if ILN doesn't hoist the first one of the season with an asteriks denoting it's a very changeable situation. Looks like so far my call from a week ago that this would come further north bringing us...potentially....our greatest snow of the season to date might just have been correct. This blind squirrel getting ready to celebrate lol...so PIT hoists watches and they are 300 miles east of the IND area who goes with a comment that there's still plenty of time and no rush to issue headlines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Expected Indy to go with a watch to be cautious. I see Pitt put a watch up so it will be interesting to see what ILN does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 NWS Directive on Winter Weather Warning and Advisory Criteria for those interested. It varies by office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 WSW doesn't seem warranted for the IND CWA. I'm not seeing 6"+ amounts in a 24 hour 12 hour period for central Indiana, outside of a few local surprise locations...maybe. A WWA will suffice by tomorrow afternoon/evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 18z NAM looking more like the 12z EURO. Hi-res models might be getting their backsides handed to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 18Z NAM QPF slashed in half from the 12z run for YYZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 ILN going ws watch for southern cwa. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/displayprod.php?product=CLEAFDILN&versions=36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 18z NAM looking more like the 12z EURO. Hi-res models might be getting their backsides handed to them. Yep, trends on their way down here too. At this point, if I had to make a forecast for the IND CWA, I'd go 2-3" for the northern/northwestern 1/4 (LAF, OKK) and 3-5" for everyone else (IND, HUF, MIE) with some lollis of 6" from IND to just south of MIE. Further downgrades may be necessary for the northern areas (LAF, OKK) as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Still thinking 2-3" for the QC. Nice hit for the west half of Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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