Powerball Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 With LES because it's low topped convection, the sun has an easier time emitting heat through the clouds. That's not the case with a synoptic storm. And even in the case of LES, unless temps were marginal, and we're talking about dark surfaces, I can't believe the sun had any substantial effect on the amount of accumulation. Even with a synopitc storm, I'd feel more comfortable if the worst of it came through at night. There's just so many things that can go wrong with it. For example, if the synoptic snow has dry air or banding issues (you may have transitionary flake size & rates), that would have an impact on the ratios too until you can get into a steady period of heavier snow. This is especially true in urban areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Were in the .30-.40 range in southern Ohio now according to the NAM. 4-6 seems possible based on that run Yep, with nice ratios it looks like almost the whole state of Ohio is on the verge of a WSW event per the NAM. Lets see if the GFS continues to move towards the NAM. The 6z run bumped things here to about 2.8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Some of the SREF members show LES around the west end of lake ontario. Also the 00z GGEM seemed to show some lake effect. Your take? The further south a track the primary takes, or the quicker the primary low dissolves into an inverted sfc trough extending from the coast, the less chance we have at lake enhancement because the flow would be 040-060, keeping things confined to Burlington-Niagara. Those SREFS members with the stronger primary give us the better chance of lake enhancement. Although even if this scenario verifies, I wouldn't be expecting anything like yesterday, because the instability isn't there (delta ts ~10-12c). Maybe an additional inch or two on top of whatever we get synoptically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Even with a synopitc storm, I'd feel more comfortable if the worst of it came through at night. There's just so many things that can go wrong with it. You've already had a learned meteorologist inform you you're wrong. There's nothing more that I can say, except that you're wrong. For example, if the synoptic snow has dry air or banding issues (you may have transitionary flake size & rates), that would have an impact on the ratios too until you can get into a steady period of heavier snow. This is especially true in urban areas. 1. what does this point have to do with diurnal effects? and, 2. You're going to have to start posting links to substantiate some of these claims of yours, because I've never heard about this relationship between banding and urban areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 RGEM's been coming in late the last couple of days. Starting to piss me off a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yeah this run was a slight downward trend but probably closer to reality. Not too bad. DTW qpf 00z- 0.39" 06z- 0.28" 12z- 0.28" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Not too bad. DTW qpf 00z- 0.39" 06z- 0.28" 12z- 0.28" 12Z NAM BUFKIT gives around 4.4" for DET...about the same for DTW and DTX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Wow, taking a look at the 12Z NAM bufkit CMH gets 7.2" of snow with.45" of qpf. That's a nice rise from the 4.8" the 0Z NAM had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 12Z NAM BUFKIT gives around 4.4" for DET...about the same for DTW and DTX How much does it give toronto and also how much qpf was the 00z euro showing for toronto? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 You've already had a learned meteorologist inform you you're wrong. There's nothing more that I can say, except that you're wrong. 1. what does this point have to do with diurnal effects? and, 2. You're going to have to start posting links to substantiate some of these claims of yours, because I've never heard about this relationship between banding and urban areas. For the first response, I was just stating a preference, I wasn't trying to debate a point. 1. The lighter the snow then the higher the ceilings are (thus the better chance of stronger sun rays reaching the surface), although there are exceptions that's the general rule. 2. Urban areas tend to have higher traffic volumes on the roadways, which can make it even harder for the snow to accumulate if it's only so heavy. That's why on the side street the snow tends to stick quicker than on the main roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 How much does it give toronto and also how much qpf was the 00z euro showing for toronto? Thanks I don't know if this site has Canadian cities: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarmerRick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 For the first response, I was just stating a preference, I wasn't trying to debate a point. 1. The lighter the snow then the higher the ceilings are (thus the better chance of stronger sun rays reaching the surface), although there are exceptions that's the general rule. 2. Urban areas tend to have higher traffic volumes on the roadways, which can make it even harder for the snow to accumulate if it's only so heavy. That's why on the side street the snow tends to stick quicker than on the main roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I don't know if this site has Canadian cities: http://www.meteor.ia...data/index.html I'll run BUFKIT in a sec Toronto Blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I don't know if this site has Canadian cities: http://www.meteor.ia...data/index.html Thanks anyway. It doesnt have Canadian cities however I'm guessing the NAM would give me about 2-4". What about the EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Wow, taking a look at the 12Z NAM bufkit CMH gets 7.2" of snow with.45" of qpf. That's a nice rise from the 4.8" the 0Z NAM had. Do you have kpit data...on a mobile device. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Thanks anyway. It doesnt have Canadian cities however I'm guessing the NAM would give me about 2-4". What about the EURO? NAM BUFKIT for YYZ produces 1.8-3.1" of snow (depending on technique) on 0.20" of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 NAM BUFKIT for YYZ produces 1.8-3.1" of snow (depending on technique) on 0.20" of QPF. Not bad . Hopefully the GFS is better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Do you have kpit data...on a mobile device. Per the 12Z NAM bufkit at KPIT, you get 6.8" with .40" of qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Per the 12Z NAM bufkit at KPIT, you get 6.8" with .40" of qpf. Thanks...17:1 ratios are always good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Not bad . Hopefully the GFS is better Through 60, it doesn't look like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 as was discussed last time, should we split this thread up one thread for OH/MI/ON folks and another for the IN/IL/MO/IA crowd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 as was discussed last time, should we split this thread up one thread for OH/MI/ON folks and another for the IN/IL/MO/IA crowd? I don't know, then what do we do about ND/SD/MN? Next thing we know we have three separate threads. I am fine with just one since mets who are interested in multiple regions don't need to go to multiple threads for the same storm. NYC/Philly just tried splitting threads and it was a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 as was discussed last time, should we split this thread up one thread for OH/MI/ON folks and another for the IN/IL/MO/IA crowd? I wouldn't. These divisions are too arbitrary and the volume of posts isn't sufficient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Keep things the way they are now and just let posters highlight additional emphasis and concerns for their geographical region. Much simpler that way per storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 back towards the MS river area DVN LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY MAIN FOCUS IS WITH SNOW EVENT MON-TUE. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING UPPER LOW OVER MT GRADUALLY SHIFTING E/SE INTO THE PLAINS MON-TUE... WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING IN SOMEWHAT OF NEGATIVE TILT FROM BASE OF TROUGH EWD FROM ROCKIES INTO THE OH VLY. SNOW IN THE PLAINS ATTENDANT TO STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AND SFC-850 MB INVERTED TROUGH... WILL SPREAD EWD IN TIME. DRY EASTERLY LLVL FLOW WILL INHIBIT EWD PROGRESSION SOME ON MON WITH BEST CHCS FOR -SN ARRIVING MON AFTN ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST CWA. SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVERSPREADING REST OF THE CWA MON EVE AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUE. TSECTS SHOW BULK OF LIFT OUTSIDE OF FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE... SO ANTICIPATE MAINLY A LONG DURATION (18-24 HRS) LIGHT SNOW. THAT BEING SAID... THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW FOR A TIME MON EVE THROUGH ABOUT DAYBREAK ON TUE WHEN STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES... FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 1/3-1/2 OF CWA BASED ON TRACKS OF 850 MB AND 700 MB LOWS. A BIT CONCERNING TO SEE 00Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING DEPICTING SUCH A DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE OF 150 TO NEARLY 200 MB IN ROUGHLY 06Z-12Z... WHICH IN CONCERT WITH ARRIVAL OF MAIN FORCING. THUS... POTENTIAL TO SEE HIGHER SNOW TO WATER RATIOS AND AS RESULT SNOW COULD ADD UP QUICKLY. DONT SEE QPF MORE THAN 0.25 INCH IN 12 HR PERIOD FROM 00Z MON-12Z TUE THUS EVEN IF AS HIGH AS 20:1 RATIOS WOULD BE TALKING ABOUT 5 INCHES IN 12 HR PD... BELOW WARNING CRITERIA OF 6 IN/12 HR. AND... PROBS WHILE NOT ZERO ARE AWFULLY LOW TO OTHER WARNING CRITERIA OF 8 IN/24 HRS. BUT... THIS WINTER HAS SHOWN EACH SYSTEM TO BRING RELATIVELY NARROW SWATHS OF WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS... SO HAVE TO KEEP EYE ON. VARIOUS TECHNIQUES INCLUDING GARCIA METHOD ADJUSTED FOR LONG DURATION OF MAINLY LIGHTER FORCING SUPPORTS MAX AMOUNTS OF 5-6" OVER THE 18-24 HRS... WITH THESE HIGHER ACCUMS POTENTIAL SUGGESTED SOUTHWEST OF KCID-KGBG LINE ATTIM... OTHERWISE GENERAL 2-4" AMOUNTS OF CWA. GRADIENT SHOWING A BIT MORE OF AN INCREASE ON TNGT MODEL RUNS AND SO 10-20 MPH WINDS POSSIBLE BY TUE AFTN INTO EVE WHICH COULD BRING ABOUT POCKETS OF SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING. BARRING ANY SIGNIFICANT MODEL CHANGES WE ARE PROBABLY HEADED TOWARD AN ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA... ESPECIALLY SW 1/3-1/2 AS SUGGESTED ATTIM. ILX SOUNDINGS...HAVE KEPT THE EASTERN CWA IN CHANCE POPS MONDAY EVENING...RAMPING THEM UP TO NEAR OR ABOVE CATEGORICAL RANGE BY MIDNIGHT. STILL LOOKS TO BE ABOUT A 12 HOUR WINDOW FOR THE MAIN SNOWFALL. USING A 13 TO 1 RATIO...APPEARS TO BE A RATHER SOLID 3 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE OVER MOST OF THE CWA. THIS WOULD SUPPORT ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT GIVEN THAT THIS IS STILL 4TH AND 5TH PERIOD WITH PLENTY OF TIME FOR CHANGES...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW. SHOULD SEE THE SNOW BEGIN TO DIMINISH SOUTH OF I-72 BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS TO THE NORTH INTO LATE AFTERNOON. ..WINTER STORM WATCH FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI .LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE SNOW COULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES MONDAY NIGHT. A TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF SIX OR MORE INCHES IS POSSIBLE. MOZ018-019-026-027-034>036-041-042-047>052-059-060-092200- /O.NEW.KLSX.WS.A.0001.110110T1800Z-110111T1800Z/ KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO- BOONE MO-AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO- MONTGOMERY MO-LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HANNIBAL...BOWLING GREEN...COLUMBIA... MEXICO...JEFFERSON CITY 302 AM CST SUN JAN 9 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. * TIMING...SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT. * ACCUMULATIONS...A TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF SIX OR MORE INCHES IS POSSIBLE. DSM URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 949 AM CST SUN JAN 9 2011 ..LONG DURATION SNOWFALL EXPECTED EARLY THIS WEEK .A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS KANSAS AND INTO MISSOURI BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND FINALLY PULLING EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE BULK OF THE RESULTING SNOW ACROSS IOWA WILL FALL FROM EARLY MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY 5 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS 12 TO 18 HOUR PERIOD. IAZ015-023-033>035-044>047-057>060-070>073-081>084-092>095-100000- /O.CON.KDMX.WS.A.0001.110110T0600Z-110111T1200Z/ PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-SAC-CALHOUN-WEBSTER-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE- BOONE-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-ADAMS- UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EMMETSBURG...POCAHONTAS...SAC CITY... ROCKWELL CITY...FORT DODGE...DENISON...CARROLL...JEFFERSON... BOONE...AUDUBON...GUTHRIE CENTER...ADEL...DES MOINES...ATLANTIC... GREENFIELD...WINTERSET...INDIANOLA...CORNING...CRESTON... OSCEOLA...CHARITON...BEDFORD...MOUNT AYR...LEON...CORYDON 949 AM CST SUN JAN 9 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT... * TIMING TRENDS...LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE INCH. THE SNOW WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AND INTENSIFY BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM AROUND RUSH HOUR MONDAY MORNING THROUGH INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. * STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA. * IMPACTS...ROADS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME SNOW PACKED AND SLICK LEADING TO HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 1008 AM CST SUN JAN 9 2011 ..UPDATE DISCUSSION UPDATE STILL ANALYZING THE 12Z MODEL RUNS. WILL KEEP WATCH GOING A LITTLE WHILE LONGER BUT EXPECTING TO HAVE WARNINGS AND/OR ADVISORIES ISSUED BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GETTING MORE CONCERNED ABOUT A LITTLE BETTER H85 FRONTOGENETIC FORCING STARTING TO SHOW UP ON THE LATEST NAM AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GFS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD ON MONDAY INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I am just catching up here this morning. The 12Z GFS and NAM doesn't look like there are any major surprises in the offing. It continues to look like a light to moderate spread the wealth system. Besides, it looks like most of OH will get at least 4" and maybe as high as 7" depending on ratios. 12z total precip maps: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarmerRick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I don't know, then what do we do about ND/SD/MN? Next thing we know we have three separate threads. I am fine with just one since mets who are interested in multiple regions don't need to go to multiple threads for the same storm. NYC/Philly just tried splitting threads and it was a disaster. So, does that mean I need to make a separate thread just for us in Nebraska? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 So, does that mean I need to make a separate thread just for us in Nebraska? Yeah I think next time we start these storm threads they should be less specific and not say "GL/MW/OV" only when in reality it is pretty much discussing the region wide snow threat. Feel free to post in here. Jomo and the MO guys come in too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 as was discussed last time, should we split this thread up one thread for OH/MI/ON folks and another for the IN/IL/MO/IA crowd? I don't think so. A lot of the pro mets here have been more than willing to talk about weather all across the MW and OV. I mean baro even goes over to the I-95 area and posts! A lot of our IL posters also give out Euro qpf numbers to those of us here in Ohio and don't seem to mind. I think we're pretty solid here, and as others have said, we don't really get enough posts to start separating into smaller groups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarmerRick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I don't think so. A lot of the pro mets here have been more than willing to talk about weather all across the MW and OV. I mean baro even goes over to the I-95 area and posts! A lot of our IL posters also give out Euro qpf numbers to those of us here in Ohio and don't seem to mind. I think we're pretty solid here, and as others have said, we don't really get enough posts to start separating into smaller groups. I guess it all depends on what is considered the "midwest" on this forum. to me, it is NE, IA, KS, MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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