TheWeatherPimp Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Thickness of the 12z EURO continues to support good snow growth and ratios ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: DAY LAT= 39.87 LON= -84.12 ELE= 1011 12Z JAN10 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK MON 12Z 10-JAN -8.3 -10.2 1031 66 14 0.00 553 529 MON 18Z 10-JAN -1.9 -8.3 1029 47 33 0.00 553 530 TUE 00Z 11-JAN -4.9 -6.1 1028 57 81 0.00 554 532 TUE 06Z 11-JAN -5.1 -6.1 1026 65 100 0.00 551 531 TUE 12Z 11-JAN -4.9 -7.2 1022 69 99 0.02 547 530 TUE 18Z 11-JAN -4.4 -9.0 1017 83 89 0.13 537 524 WED 00Z 12-JAN -4.4 -12.4 1018 84 95 0.07 530 516 WED 06Z 12-JAN -6.6 -13.3 1019 86 91 0.01 529 515 WED 12Z 12-JAN -5.5 -12.6 1022 87 87 0.04 534 517 WED 18Z 12-JAN -4.5 -11.7 1026 75 80 0.01 538 518 THU 00Z 13-JAN -5.7 -12.4 1029 86 55 0.01 541 518 THU 06Z 13-JAN -7.7 -12.8 1031 85 40 0.01 543 519 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Thickness of the 12z EURO continues to support good snow growth and ratios ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: DAY LAT= 39.87 LON= -84.12 ELE= 1011 12Z JAN10 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK MON 12Z 10-JAN -8.3 -10.2 1031 66 14 0.00 553 529 MON 18Z 10-JAN -1.9 -8.3 1029 47 33 0.00 553 530 TUE 00Z 11-JAN -4.9 -6.1 1028 57 81 0.00 554 532 TUE 06Z 11-JAN -5.1 -6.1 1026 65 100 0.00 551 531 TUE 12Z 11-JAN -4.9 -7.2 1022 69 99 0.02 547 530 TUE 18Z 11-JAN -4.4 -9.0 1017 83 89 0.13 537 524 WED 00Z 12-JAN -4.4 -12.4 1018 84 95 0.07 530 516 WED 06Z 12-JAN -6.6 -13.3 1019 86 91 0.01 529 515 WED 12Z 12-JAN -5.5 -12.6 1022 87 87 0.04 534 517 WED 18Z 12-JAN -4.5 -11.7 1026 75 80 0.01 538 518 THU 00Z 13-JAN -5.7 -12.4 1029 86 55 0.01 541 518 THU 06Z 13-JAN -7.7 -12.8 1031 85 40 0.01 543 519 Sorry the formatting makes that about unreadable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 god help you...lol actually a lot of threats for pittsburgh and cmh go hand in hand....biggest diff is you guys get a lot more lake effect stuff. Your right but there isn't much to tracking 1-2 inch lake effect snow showers. We usually get the same type of clippers as you guys and get stuck on either side of big event snows. In the summer our severe weather mostly comes thru Ohio first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 What a stormy pattern the gfs is advertising, wow. That last storm, the appl runner could be huge for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Updated ILN map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Your right but there isn't much to tracking 1-2 inch lake effect snow showers. We usually get the same type of clippers as you guys and get stuck on either side of big event snows. In the summer our severe weather mostly comes thru Ohio first. you guys are also subject to the WTOD like us when a storm approaches from the southwest and that warmth surges right up the ohio river valley. See, we share a lot of the same frustrations too. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 0z GGEM holding steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 00Z Euro DET: 0.29 DTW: 0.29 PTK: 0.28 TOL: 0.31 FDY: 0.30 BTL: 0.23 GRR: 0.21 IND: 0.24 CMH: 0.21 CLE: 0.36 DAY: 0.27 ORD: 0.22 MKE: 0.17 PIA: 0.28 SDF: 0.16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 00Z Euro DET: 0.29 DTW: 0.29 PTK: 0.28 TOL: 0.31 FDY: 0.30 BTL: 0.23 GRR: 0.21 IND: 0.24 CMH: 0.21 CLE: 0.36 DAY: 0.27 ORD: 0.22 MKE: 0.17 PIA: 0.28 SDF: 0.16 about the same for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITblizz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 00Z Euro DET: 0.29 DTW: 0.29 PTK: 0.28 TOL: 0.31 FDY: 0.30 BTL: 0.23 GRR: 0.21 IND: 0.24 CMH: 0.21 CLE: 0.36 DAY: 0.27 ORD: 0.22 MKE: 0.17 PIA: 0.28 SDF: 0.16 Really hate to be "that guy", but how much does it show for PIT if you getta chance? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Really hate to be "that guy", but how much does it show for PIT if you getta chance? Thanks PIT: 0.28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITblizz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 PIT: 0.28 Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Everybody be sure to read the announcement about the AmericanWx WRF. Here are a few images from the 00z run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 75% humidity with a temp of 23. I would assume thats good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Nice, has hourly snowfall and total snow on the new AmericanWx WRF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Everybody be sure to read the announcement about the AmericanWx WRF. Here are a few images from the 00z run! Yeah I looked at the snow output from the model I don't know the algorithm they used but it seems to under doing the amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Well all the models are looking good! The Euro, which was dry all week, has come around to 0.30", an exact match to the NAM and the 6z GFS looks better too!. DTX has issued an advisory for total storm accumulations of 4", which to me is kinda weird to not say a range (though in the forecast they do say 2-3" today and up to 2" tonight, which is technically 4-5"). SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OUR AREA FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE REGION ROUGHLY FROM PORT HURON TO PONTIAC TO ANN ARBOR AND SOUTH TO THE OHIO BORDER. THE ADVISORY WILL BE IN PLACE MAINLY TO HIGHLIGHT THE STRONGEST PART OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SE MICHIGAN DURING THE PEAK EVENING DRIVING PERIOD AND FOR SNOWFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED DURING THE 6 HOUR PERIOD FROM ABOUT 3 PM TO 9 PM. LIGHTER SNOW IN ADVANCE OF AND TRAILING THE PEAK PERIOD WILL RESULT IN SYSTEM TOTALS AROUND 4 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE AROUND SE MICHIGAN, THE FORECAST TREND WITH THIS PACKAGE WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATION TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEST ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE HURON INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB, MAINLY TONIGHT. JUDGING FROM THE SUITE OF OBSERVATIONS AT PRESS TIME, THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ABOUT ON TRACK WITH THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW REACHING THE GROUND TO OUR WEST. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO DEPICT THE LAYER OF DRY AIR OVER SE MICHIGAN QUITE NICELY COMPARED TO THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING. ALL OF THIS ADDS CONFIDENCE TO THE ONSET TIMING BY NOON NEAR THE OHIO BORDER TO EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN THUMB AS ISENTROPIC LIFT RAMPS UP IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE. MODEL DEPICTIONS OF SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOW GOOD PRESSURE ADVECTION ON THE 285K SURFACE CARRYING 1 TO 2 G/KG SPECIFIC HUMIDITY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS SUGGESTS A SOLID 2 TO 4 INCH ACCUMULATION DURING THE PERIOD FROM ABOUT NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, BUT WITH MOST OF THAT COMING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LOW AND MID LEVEL TROWAL DURING THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING PERIOD. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE CENTER OF THE COMPACT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH BUT WILL BRING ENOUGH COOLING ALOFT TO STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE LIFT IN THE TROWAL AXIS AS IT MOVES ABOUT DIRECTLY OVER THE ADVISORY AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW GOOD THERMODYNAMIC PROPERTIES FOR SNOW GROWTH. WHILE NOT ISOTHERMAL, THE SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD SATURATION AND RESPECTABLE RESIDENCE TIME IN THE DGZ DURING THE PEAK OF THE EVENT. ALL TOGETHER, THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW JUST IN TIME TO HAMPER THE EVENING COMMUTE IN THE DETROIT AREA. THE OTHER CONCERN IN OUR AREA IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE HURON INTO THE THUMB AND SAGINAW VALLEY. THE NAM12 INDICATES A FAIRLY STRONG COMPONENT OF VERTICAL MOTION CENTERED AROUND 850 MB TO GO ALONG WITH THE LARGER SCALE FORCING ON THE NORTH AND WEST FLANK OF THE SYSTEM. MODEL SOUNDINGS IN THAT AREA INDICATE INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEPTH, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WITH MODEST INSTABILITY FROM THE LAKE SURFACE USING A WATER TEMP OF 3C. FOR NOW, DECIDED TO JUST INCREASE THE TOTAL ACCUMULATION THERE INTO THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE AND HOLD OFF ON A HEADLINE CONSIDERING MOST OF THAT WILL FALL FROM MID EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Maybe it's me, but comparing current radar to the WRF and NAM projected radar for 7am, it appears the NAM and WRF were too far north with the heaviest snow. According to current radar the heavy snow band resides in SE IL, and just to the south of I-70 in IN. Everybody be sure to read the announcement about the AmericanWx WRF. Here are a few images from the 00z run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Maybe it's me, but comparing current radar to the WRF and NAM projected radar for 7am, it appears the NAM and WRF were too far north with the heaviest snow. According to current radar the heavy snow band resides in SE IL, and just to the south of I-70 in IN. I was thinking the same thing Jay. Looks to pivot into central OH in a few hours too. Perhaps CMH will be in a good spot after all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Maybe it's me, but comparing current radar to the WRF and NAM projected radar for 7am, it appears the NAM and WRF were too far north with the heaviest snow. According to current radar the heavy snow band resides in SE IL, and just to the south of I-70 in IN. yep....looks like the greatest intensity right now is over the southern half of IN/ sw OH and even N. KY heading right towards us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Light to moderate snow falling at the moment. WWA was issued by LOT sometime in the overnight hours. They are thinking 3"-5" now for the area. I am calling 4" possibly for MBY (W/C Cook Co.) don't think I will go much above that. Edited to add: 1" or so is down now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 All ready snowing at a good clip...so much for that "dry air" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Got 3 inches with this one. that is 3.2, 5, 3 on the season, guess it's not to bad..about average. overcame dry air fast, but lift was much weaker then we expected and a bit moisture starved. pockets of dry air could not all get flushed out and we had more shower like snow then a steady snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I may bust high... 3" on the ground now, and coming down pretty good at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I may bust high... 3" on the ground now, and coming down pretty good at the moment. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/8398-january-9th-11th-winter-storm-obs-thread/page__pid__272312__st__180#entry272312 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioValleyWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 In northeast Montgomery Coutny, OH....7 miles ENE of Dayton I am coming in with a shade under 4" at last measure about 15 minutes ago. 3 7/8" is the closest accurate measurement. Still light snow so eclipsing 4" in the next 20 to 30 minutes looks good. Then add that to the 1 to 1.5" tonight expected in CAA and Lake Enhancement that 6" mark could get pretty close. I had 4-6" for the area I reside since last week and looks to be pretty close to being right in range. Josh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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