Thundersnow12 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Not warning criteria? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Not warning criteria? i believe it would have to be 4" as the low number and under 12 hours....for instance 4-7 or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 i believe it would have to be 4" as the low number and under 12 hours....for instance 4-7 or something like that. Yeah, I guess 6 would need to be more than just the upper extreme. I'll laugh if this ends up being one of those warning upgrades halfway through the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Not warning criteria? Close but not quite. Looking at the zone forecasts, it looks like they put the heaviest right along the I-70 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eamp Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Quick question for those familiar with BUFKIT.... I've got the newest version, which features a number in parentheses when adding up the snowfall. Does anybody know what the figure is supposed to represent? The first number is the snow accumulation in inches of snow. This number is supposed to reflect how snow totals are measured in the National Weather Service (don't measure snow accumulations more that 4 times a day). The second number in parentheses is the old way of just summing the hourly snowfall. That bogus approach is like taking 24 snowfall measurements in one day and the summing them up. It's is not how snow is measured and results is wildly overestimation of storm snow totals. So the next time you see Bufkit snow "Storm Totals", you should ask yourself, are they using the old invalid technique that overestimates storm total, of the value that reflects the way snowfall is actually measured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Criteria for Central and Western Ohio including Dayton and Columbus is 6 inches in 12 hours and 8 inches in 24 hours. The criteria for Southern and Southwestern Ohio and Southeastern Indiana (Cincinnati, Hamilton, Washington Court House, Wilmington, etc.) is lower and is only 4 inches in 12 hours and 6 inches in 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The first number is the snow accumulation in inches of snow. This number is supposed to reflect how snow totals are measured in the National Weather Service (don't measure snow accumulations more that 4 times a day). The second number in parentheses is the old way of just summing the hourly snowfall. That bogus approach is like taking 24 snowfall measurements in one day and the summing them up. It's is not how snow is measured and results is wildly overestimation of storm snow totals. So the next time you see Bufkit snow "Storm Totals", you should ask yourself, are they using the old invalid technique that overestimates storm total, of the value that reflects the way snowfall is actually measured. Thank you so much for this. This feature wasn't present on the older versions and explains why the snowfall totals always seemed to be inflated. Although, I suppose it's useful tool if you want to gauge snowfall intensity (rates/hour). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 well i gotta say it.... i don't care which model it is, they all look pretty pawltry and pathetic..lol. We are really going to need ratios to save the day in order to get the widespread amounts forecasted around the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GFS did come in stronger, but the amount and placement of everything is about the same, maybe a slight NW adjustment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 00Z GFS: DET: 0.25 DTW: 0.25 PTK: 0.21 BTL: 0.20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 well i gotta say it.... i don't care which model it is, they all look pretty pawltry and pathetic..lol. We are really going to need ratios to save the day in order to get the widespread amounts forecasted around the region. Yeah, every model is drying out.. Good luck on the storm guys. I might be getting banned, lol, by stormtracker for saying I don't really know what actually happened with eastern. He also dropped the eff bomb on me... In any case, hope you guys can squeeze out a decent hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 00Z GFS: DET: 0.25 DTW: 0.25 PTK: 0.21 BTL: 0.20 Kab, very sorry, but do you have pit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yeah, verbatum it still shows 0.3"+ qpf for Detroit downriver, then 0.25-0.30" just west of that, so really such a minor detail at this point is not really important. Looking at PTK DTW it shows about .24 at PTK and .33 at DTW....considering the possible WCB.....strengthening upper dynamics....and upstream trends I would say 3 to 5 inches for most SE Michigan and 4 to 7 inches south and east of a ADG to MTC line. Most of indiana and Ohio should get in the 4-7 range also....if not maybe a little higher in some locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Kab, very sorry, but do you have pit? 0.38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Looking at PTK DTW it shows about .24 at PTK and .33 at DTW....considering the possible WCB.....strengthening upper dynamics....and upstream trends I would say 3 to 5 inches for most SE Michigan and 4 to 7 inches south and east of a ADG to MTC line. Most of indiana and Ohio should get in the 4-7 range also....if not maybe a little higher in some locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yeah, every model is drying out.. Good luck on the storm guys. I might be getting banned, lol, by stormtracker for saying I don't really know what actually happened with eastern. He also dropped the eff bomb on me... In any case, hope you guys can squeeze out a decent hit. Randy is actually a very good guy, I've known him since the beginning, and Marcus as well. For two really good people whom I've known for so long to have a falling out like they did is sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 well i gotta say it.... i don't care which model it is, they all look pretty pawltry and pathetic..lol. We are really going to need ratios to save the day in order to get the widespread amounts forecasted around the region. NAM is okay...GFS is fugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Looking at PTK DTW it shows about .24 at PTK and .33 at DTW....considering the possible WCB.....strengthening upper dynamics....and upstream trends I would say 3 to 5 inches for most SE Michigan and 4 to 7 inches south and east of a ADG to MTC line. Most of indiana and Ohio should get in the 4-7 range also....if not maybe a little higher in some locations. BTW, what is a WCB? Does the C & B stand for convective band? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm not worried, not sure why after looking at the models but all the other factors just look to impressive. I'm riding the optimistic bus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Randy is actually a very good guy, I've known him since the beginning, and Marcus as well. For two really good people whom I've known for so long to have a falling out like they did is sad. Yea...I won't doubt that...I just don't really know went down. That's all I really said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 0.38 Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 BTW, what is a WCB? Does the C & B stand for convective band? Warm Conveyor Belt....this is sort of a hybrid Warm/Cold Conveyor Belt. The link below will describe it better. http://apollo.lsc.vsc.edu/classes/met130/notes/chapter12/warm_cold_conveyor.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Warm Conveyor Belt. ok, thanks. So basically a trowal, yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 ok, thanks. So basically a trowal, yes? Sort of....a WCB is typically associated with moisture advection in the 850 to 700 layer.....a trowal is a trough of warm air aloft usually centered between 600 and 400mb and can lead to slantwise instability and resultant convective snow. These links help illustrate. WCB/CCB: http://apollo.lsc.vs...d_conveyor.html TROWAL: http://marrella.mete.../cyclwkshp.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Sort of....a WCB is typically associated with moisture advection in the 850 to 700 layer.....a trowal is a trough of warm air aloft usually centered betweeb 600 and 400mb and can lead to slantwise instability and resulant convective snow. These links help illustrate. WCB/CCB: http://apollo.lsc.vs...d_conveyor.html TROWAL: http://marrella.mete.../cyclwkshp.html That clears it all up for me, thank you very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 That clears it all up for me, thank you very much. Glad to help....here's to us all getting some on this system.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Pretty decent agreement from the 0z NAM, 0z GFS, and 12z Euro on around 0.30" liquid, give or take a few hundredths, for LAF. Hopefully the higher ratios pan out. 5" (12/24-25) the number/storm to beat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 0.38 Thanks for helping us out over here in Pittsburgh. We seem to be on our own over here. We are ignored pretty much if we go east of our area. I lurk more over here to get my info from the Ohio posters. I always thought we were better with the Cincy, Columbus, and Cleveland crowd. Most of our weather comes from your way and we have similar climates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Thanks for helping us out over here in Pittsburgh. We seem to be on our own over here. We are ignored pretty much if we go east of our area. I lurk more over here to get my info from the Ohio posters. I always thought we were better with the Cincy, Columbus, and Cleveland crowd. Most of our weather comes from your way and we have similar climates. god help you...lol actually a lot of threats for pittsburgh and cmh go hand in hand....biggest diff is you guys get a lot more lake effect stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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