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January 10th-12th OV/MW/GL Winter Storm prospects


Harry

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Quick question for those familiar with BUFKIT....

I've got the newest version, which features a number in parentheses when adding up the snowfall. Does anybody know what the figure is supposed to represent?

The first number is the snow accumulation in inches of snow. This number is supposed to reflect how snow totals are measured in the National Weather Service (don't measure snow accumulations more that 4 times a day). The second number in parentheses is the old way of just summing the hourly snowfall. That bogus approach is like taking 24 snowfall measurements in one day and the summing them up. It's is not how snow is measured and results is wildly overestimation of storm snow totals.

So the next time you see Bufkit snow "Storm Totals", you should ask yourself, are they using the old invalid technique that overestimates storm total, of the value that reflects the way snowfall is actually measured.

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Criteria for Central and Western Ohio including Dayton and Columbus is 6 inches in 12 hours and 8 inches in 24 hours. The criteria for Southern and Southwestern Ohio and Southeastern Indiana (Cincinnati, Hamilton, Washington Court House, Wilmington, etc.) is lower and is only 4 inches in 12 hours and 6 inches in 24 hours.

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The first number is the snow accumulation in inches of snow. This number is supposed to reflect how snow totals are measured in the National Weather Service (don't measure snow accumulations more that 4 times a day). The second number in parentheses is the old way of just summing the hourly snowfall. That bogus approach is like taking 24 snowfall measurements in one day and the summing them up. It's is not how snow is measured and results is wildly overestimation of storm snow totals.

So the next time you see Bufkit snow "Storm Totals", you should ask yourself, are they using the old invalid technique that overestimates storm total, of the value that reflects the way snowfall is actually measured.

Thank you so much for this. This feature wasn't present on the older versions and explains why the snowfall totals always seemed to be inflated. Although, I suppose it's useful tool if you want to gauge snowfall intensity (rates/hour).

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well i gotta say it.... i don't care which model it is, they all look pretty pawltry and pathetic..lol. We are really going to need ratios to save the day in order to get the widespread amounts forecasted around the region.

Yeah, every model is drying out..

Good luck on the storm guys. I might be getting banned, lol, by stormtracker for saying I don't really know what actually happened with eastern. He also dropped the eff bomb on me...

In any case, hope you guys can squeeze out a decent hit.

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Yeah, verbatum it still shows 0.3"+ qpf for Detroit downriver, then 0.25-0.30" just west of that, so really such a minor detail at this point is not really important.

Looking at PTK DTW it shows about .24 at PTK and .33 at DTW....considering the possible WCB.....strengthening upper dynamics....and upstream trends I would say 3 to 5 inches for most SE Michigan and 4 to 7 inches south and east of a ADG to MTC line. Most of indiana and Ohio should get in the 4-7 range also....if not maybe a little higher in some locations.

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Looking at PTK DTW it shows about .24 at PTK and .33 at DTW....considering the possible WCB.....strengthening upper dynamics....and upstream trends I would say 3 to 5 inches for most SE Michigan and 4 to 7 inches south and east of a ADG to MTC line. Most of indiana and Ohio should get in the 4-7 range also....if not maybe a little higher in some locations.

:thumbsup:

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Yeah, every model is drying out..

Good luck on the storm guys. I might be getting banned, lol, by stormtracker for saying I don't really know what actually happened with eastern. He also dropped the eff bomb on me...

In any case, hope you guys can squeeze out a decent hit.

Randy is actually a very good guy, I've known him since the beginning, and Marcus as well. For two really good people whom I've known for so long to have a falling out like they did is sad.

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Looking at PTK DTW it shows about .24 at PTK and .33 at DTW....considering the possible WCB.....strengthening upper dynamics....and upstream trends I would say 3 to 5 inches for most SE Michigan and 4 to 7 inches south and east of a ADG to MTC line. Most of indiana and Ohio should get in the 4-7 range also....if not maybe a little higher in some locations.

BTW, what is a WCB?

Does the C & B stand for convective band?

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ok, thanks.

So basically a trowal, yes?

Sort of....a WCB is typically associated with moisture advection in the 850 to 700 layer.....a trowal is a trough of warm air aloft usually centered between 600 and 400mb and can lead to slantwise instability and resultant convective snow. These links help illustrate.

WCB/CCB:

http://apollo.lsc.vs...d_conveyor.html

TROWAL:

http://marrella.mete.../cyclwkshp.html

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Sort of....a WCB is typically associated with moisture advection in the 850 to 700 layer.....a trowal is a trough of warm air aloft usually centered betweeb 600 and 400mb and can lead to slantwise instability and resulant convective snow. These links help illustrate.

WCB/CCB:

http://apollo.lsc.vs...d_conveyor.html

TROWAL:

http://marrella.mete.../cyclwkshp.html

That clears it all up for me, thank you very much. :)

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0.38

Thanks for helping us out over here in Pittsburgh. We seem to be on our own over here.

We are ignored pretty much if we go east of our area.

I lurk more over here to get my info from the Ohio posters. I always thought we were better with the Cincy, Columbus, and Cleveland crowd. Most of our weather comes from your way and we have similar climates.

:snowman:

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Thanks for helping us out over here in Pittsburgh. We seem to be on our own over here.

We are ignored pretty much if we go east of our area.

I lurk more over here to get my info from the Ohio posters. I always thought we were better with the Cincy, Columbus, and Cleveland crowd. Most of our weather comes from your way and we have similar climates.

:snowman:

god help you...lol

actually a lot of threats for pittsburgh and cmh go hand in hand....biggest diff is you guys get a lot more lake effect stuff.

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