snowstormcanuck Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Hmm...gonna be a tough choice whether to make the commute to Hamilton on Wednesday. WRF smokes them with the LES. 0.64" bullseye, and that's just through 6z Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Barring a dramatic stoppage in the snowfall, mine will be next to go down. What was your forecast, 30-35"? BTW, just watched Jerry Taft. He's going with a bullish, for him, 2-3" for Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 What was your forecast, 30-35"? BTW, just watched Jerry Taft. He's going with a bullish, for him, 2-3" for Chicago. yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I have family in Muskegon & Norton Shores and head up there at least once a month. While there has been very little snow for the area season-to-date, I beleive you have made out just fine during the past couple lake events. Good evening! I live in Norton Shores...we have definitely made out better than Grand Rapids...and have gotten some good bursts of snow from the lake. However, the main bands for the most part have been sitting over the lake and pounding northern Indiana. It's been the same song and dance all winter...they call for large amounts of LES and then the more westerly winds just don't seem to kick in. I've been watching everything (LES and storms) move up or down along the lake and bypass us. It is indeed all relative though. Coming from Chicago, it probably seems to you like we have a lot of snow. Lake effect compacts down REALLY quickly too. I hope you enjoy your trips here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 when does the official OBS Thread get launched for the snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Final Call for Kokomo - 4-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 when does the official OBS Thread get launched for the snowstorm Have we been doing that lately? I thought we just kept them in the storm forecast thread. Don't let it stop you from making a new thread for OBS though, I'm just thinking out loud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Have we been doing that lately? I thought we just kept them in the storm forecast thread. Don't let it stop you from making a new thread for OBS though, I'm just thinking out loud. I say we try an obs thread. It can get a little cluttered having such a large storm thread for a region wide storm with obs as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Final Call for Kokomo - 4-6" This is the most hyped I've seen you all winter. I hope it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Obs. thread below... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/8398-january-9th-11th-winter-storm-obs-thread/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 This is the most hyped I've seen you all winter. I hope it happens. First time I have not been on the edge of a sharp gradient. You know I am just at 12.8" (plus 3 trace events). I am way behind your sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I have not had a 4" or greater event since the 07/08 winter (which was incredible with 82"...payback?). I am forecasting 4" in my backyard from this event, but optimistic that maybe a 5-6" event may occur given potential high ratios. Still liking Muncie to Lima to Cleveland for the sweetspot with low end warning amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Good evening! I live in Norton Shores...we have definitely made out better than Grand Rapids...and have gotten some good bursts of snow from the lake. However, the main bands for the most part have been sitting over the lake and pounding northern Indiana. It's been the same song and dance all winter...they call for large amounts of LES and then the more westerly winds just don't seem to kick in. I've been watching everything (LES and storms) move up or down along the lake and bypass us. It is indeed all relative though. Coming from Chicago, it probably seems to you like we have a lot of snow. Lake effect compacts down REALLY quickly too. I hope you enjoy your trips here. We love the area and I have been visiting family there my entire life. Did you recently move to Norton Shores? The immediate area doesn't tend to do as well with LES as Grand Haven south to Benton Harbor. North of Muskegon along Scenic Drive up towards Whitehall and points north often do better as well. Muskegon gets its best LES dumps from prolonged SW-trajectory events. Those obviously aren't nearly as common as N/NW events. However, this is all OT as we're nowcasting a synoptic system that seems to be overperforming in a few spots west of here. Here's hoping that deep DGZ and the favorable ratios everyone keeps mentioning work out for both/all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I have not had a 4" or greater event since the 07/08 winter (which was incredible with 82"...payback?). I am forecasting 4" in my backyard from this event, but optimistic that maybe a 5-6" event may occur given potential high ratios. Still liking Muncie to Lima to Cleveland for the sweetspot with low end warning amounts. Im only about 30 or 40 miles west of Muncie! I hope my area can end up in the sweetspot for once! I think we have a good shot considering the tracks of the 8h 7h mb lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sc2man13 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It's amazing to me just how similar this winter is here as last winter...actually this year may be even worse. All these northerly lake effect events hitting Indiana combined with all the systems going west and south....it's just been so frustrating. Where do you live in Western Michigan? I go to Calvin college, so east side of Grand Rapids. I agree, we were supposed to get upwards of 9 inches from that LES event last friday and I think we barely eeked out three. Edit: that being said, I feel for the people in MI living outside the snow belt. I was checking daily climo records, and as of some point late last week Houghton Lake only had 3 (!) inches on the ground. For being up north and in a psuedo LES belt, that is horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 revised snowfall forecast fmby: 1"....95% 2"....70% 3"....45% 4"....25% 5"......5% 6"......1% If I get at least 2" that'll make Jan 2011 the first month I've reached normal snowfall since Jan 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I am here, in muncie, well just north by a few miles, so I enjoy all the muncie chat :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Interesting.. GFS from 00z last night a bit off the mark. Note the 1024mb line.. Vs what we have as of 00z.. NAM not as bad. 12z runs.. GFS still off the mark but NAM almost on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 How Ironic...with this storm we will be making good progress toward a top 10 snowless winter.... Muskegan is already at 28.0". Even though that is well below normal, no way do they have a top 10 snowless winter. No way in hell anyone in southern MI does. If this storm and the snowfall at the end of the week works out, Detroit will go above normal to date Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Starting to get excited, I work 11-7 tomorrow so storm should be going well before I get off work. I notice every single GFS ensemble at both 12z and 18z has all of southern MI south of GRR and FNT in the 0.25"+ zone, so the OP is a definite outlier. Snow depth here is still 1.5-2", however lots of grass tips seen by busy roads, and full-out patches of grass on the freeways. Perfect time for a refresher, and dare I say with several more rounds of snow in the forecast later this week, I may be on the way to building a nice snowpack above and beyond that of December . Dont want to jinx anything, but MAYBE this IS going to be a very white winter overall, and that 5-day bare stretch to start January was just a blip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Muskegan is already at 28.0". Even though that is well below normal, no way do they have a top 10 snowless winter. No way in hell anyone in southern MI does. If this storm and the snowfall at the end of the week works out, Detroit will go above normal to date I remember years ago there was a HUGE debate on Eastern about lake effect snow being "fake" and not really counting...in a way now, I kind of understand where they were coming from. How do you include lake effect in "average snowfall" when an inch of lake effect isn't really an inch. It quickly becomes a centimeter. But, alas, I know this isn't the thread for that discussion. Here's hoping for a decent amount of snow for you from this storm. You'll get a nice snowpack back and then you will be very positive about the winter again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I remember years ago there was a HUGE debate on Eastern about lake effect snow being "fake" and not really counting...in a way now, I kind of understand where they were coming from. How do you include lake effect in "average snowfall" when an inch of lake effect isn't really an inch. It quickly becomes a centimeter. But, alas, I know this isn't the thread for that discussion. Here's hoping for a decent amount of snow for you from this storm. You'll get a nice snowpack back and then you will be very positive about the winter again. This is OT for this thread, but here goes lol. The whole fake snow argument is kind of weird. Because snow is snow. Some call it "fake" because its fluffy and yeah it settles alot, and especially the deeper it is the more it settles. I had 3.8" of this "fake" snow on the 6/7th and now have 1.5-2" on the ground, with the warmest temp since then being 29F. So yes it settles, but it sure looks like snow lol. Ironically, as I recall it was a lot of the midatlantic crew who were most adament about LES being fake, well...hmmm...should we call their usual cement snow "fake" snow since it melts even faster than LES settles? Anyway, thats why climate sites do snowfall and snow depth, to account for different rates of melting/settling. As an example lets compare CLE and DTW in December. Cleveland had 3.4" MORE snow than Detroit, but Detroits depth was way higher. CLE had almost all LES, DTW mostly all synoptic. Still, its ALL snow. CLEVELAND, almost all LES [size="3"]STATION: CLEVELAND OH MONTH: DECEMBER YEAR: 2010 LATITUDE: 41 24 N LONGITUDE: 81 51 W TEMPERATURE IN F: :PCPN: SNOW: WIND :SUNSHINE: SKY :PK WND ================================================================================ 1 2 3 4 5 6A 6B 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 12Z AVG MX 2MIN DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR ================================================================================ 1 35 26 31 -5 34 0 0.02 0.1 0 17.2 28 250 M M 10 1 36 230 2 29 26 28 -8 37 0 T T T 10.4 16 250 M M 10 24 230 3 30 25 28 -8 37 0 0.05 0.6 T 7.9 14 250 M M 9 1 29 190 4 33 20 27 -9 38 0 0.01 0.1 1 7.8 22 360 M M 7 28 360 5 31 26 29 -6 36 0 0.04 0.4 T 16.2 24 300 M M 10 36 290 6 29 25 27 -7 38 0 0.10 1.0 1 16.3 25 300 M M 10 19 36 300 7 26 21 24 -10 41 0 0.09 1.5 2 14.8 23 300 M M 10 1 30 300 8 26 19 23 -10 42 0 0.17 3.0 1 12.3 21 250 M M 10 1 25 300 9 28 16 22 -11 43 0 0.01 0.2 3 6.9 16 180 M M 9 1 22 160 10 38 27 33 0 32 0 0.04 0.5 2 11.2 18 170 M M 7 1 23 190 11 44 27 36 4 29 0 0.01 0.0 1 9.0 17 140 M M 5 18 24 140 12 39 23 31 -1 34 0 0.60 1.8 0 13.9 28 240 M M 10 1 33 230 13 23 15 19 -13 46 0 0.12 2.7 4 21.7 31 310 M M 10 129 39 310 14 23 15 19 -12 46 0 T T 2 18.4 26 320 M M 9 37 320 15 23 15 19 -12 46 0 T T 2 12.7 21 290 M M 10 29 300 16 23 12 18 -13 47 0 T T 2 4.3 8 220 M M 8 8 10 230 17 27 17 22 -9 43 0 0.01 0.1 1 10.0 20 250 M M 7 8 24 220 18 26 14 20 -10 45 0 0.00 0.0 1 10.5 18 240 M M 2 26 220 19 24 14 19 -11 46 0 T T 1 8.0 14 260 M M 6 18 18 240 20 27 20 24 -6 41 0 0.01 0.1 1 7.2 13 240 M M 9 18 15 270 21 31 20 26 -3 39 0 0.00 0.0 1 3.9 8 30 M M 10 18 12 240 22 31 28 30 1 35 0 0.03 0.5 1 9.1 24 330 M M 10 1 30 320 23 32 27 30 1 35 0 T T 1 14.6 24 340 M M 10 31 340 24 29 27 28 -1 37 0 T T 2 7.6 14 340 M M 9 17 340 25 29 25 27 -1 38 0 T T 1 9.9 16 10 M M 10 8 20 10 26 27 22 25 -3 40 0 0.01 0.1 1 16.6 31 10 M M 9 1 38 10 27 26 17 22 -6 43 0 T T 1 13.8 26 350 M M 9 19 35 340 28 29 14 22 -5 43 0 0.00 0.0 1 12.2 22 240 M M 5 18 26 240 29 36 21 29 2 36 0 0.00 0.0 1 7.2 12 230 M M 6 18 14 230 30 44 30 37 10 28 0 0.02 0.0 1 11.5 17 180 M M 9 1 23 240 31 58 44 51 24 14 0 T 0.0 0 13.8 21 200 M M 8 29 190 ================================================================================ SM 956 678 1189 0 1.34 12.7 356.9 M 263 [/size] DETROIT mostly synoptic [size="3"]STATION: DETROIT MI MONTH: DECEMBER YEAR: 2010 LATITUDE: 42 13 N LONGITUDE: 83 20 W TEMPERATURE IN F: :PCPN: SNOW: WIND :SUNSHINE: SKY :PK WND ================================================================================ 1 2 3 4 5 6A 6B 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 12Z AVG MX 2MIN DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR ================================================================================ 1 34 26 30 -5 35 0 T 0.1 0 16.7 23 240 M M 10 1 29 240 2 29 25 27 -7 38 0 0.01 0.2 T 12.6 22 220 M M 10 1 26 220 3 36 27 32 -2 33 0 0.01 0.1 T 6.4 14 310 M M 9 1 18 310 4 35 26 31 -2 34 0 T T 0 7.4 18 330 M M 10 25 330 5 30 23 27 -6 38 0 T T 0 13.2 25 340 M M 9 33 310 6 29 23 26 -7 39 0 0.01 0.3 T 14.0 23 330 M M 10 39 290 7 29 20 25 -7 40 0 T T T 14.2 25 330 M M 8 36 330 8 30 19 25 -7 40 0 T T T 8.6 15 270 M M 9 18 290 9 29 15 22 -10 43 0 0.00 0.0 T 6.1 16 180 M M 6 21 190 10 39 26 33 2 32 0 0.07 0.9 1 13.0 22 230 M M 7 18 26 220 11 41 22 32 1 33 0 0.08 0.0 T 5.8 13 120 M M 8 18 18 110 12 38 16 27 -3 38 0 0.94 6.3 T 11.2 23 340 M M 10 129 35 350 13 16 9 13 -17 52 0 T T 6 17.7 26 330 M M 6 9 38 320 14 21 9 15 -15 50 0 0.00 0.0 6 13.6 22 320 M M 3 8 33 320 15 25 13 19 -11 46 0 0.00 0.0 6 4.7 14 270 M M 5 18 17 260 16 26 6 16 -13 49 0 T T 5 5.3 10 270 M M 8 1 14 300 17 28 15 22 -7 43 0 T T 5 10.9 20 240 M M 8 1 25 250 18 21 10 16 -13 49 0 T T 5 11.5 18 200 M M 8 18 21 200 19 25 18 22 -6 43 0 0.01 0.2 5 7.0 12 230 M M 10 18 15 240 20 31 22 27 -1 38 0 0.00 0.0 5 4.9 10 310 M M 9 1 13 300 21 30 22 26 -2 39 0 0.00 0.0 5 3.5 8 110 M M 10 18 12 240 22 33 25 29 1 36 0 0.06 1.0 6 7.0 16 340 M M 9 18 22 330 23 32 29 31 4 34 0 T T 5 9.2 20 340 M M 10 26 350 24 29 25 27 0 38 0 0.00 0.0 5 5.8 12 10 M M 10 15 30 25 30 24 27 0 38 0 T T 5 8.0 20 20 M M 10 18 23 30 26 28 23 26 -1 39 0 0.01 0.2 5 15.3 24 30 M M 10 1 33 20 27 24 21 23 -4 42 0 T T 5 9.6 18 10 M M 7 26 20 28 29 15 22 -4 43 0 0.00 0.0 5 12.2 22 260 M M 5 18 26 240 29 30 19 25 -1 40 0 0.00 0.0 5 6.4 9 170 M M 7 18 13 170 30 40 30 35 9 30 0 0.03 0.0 5 7.5 13 160 M M 10 168 17 180 31 52 38 45 19 20 0 0.05 0.0 2 8.5 15 190 M M 9 1 20 190 ================================================================================ SM 949 641 1212 0 1.28 9.3 297.8 M 260 [/size] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 This is OT for this thread, but here goes lol. The whole fake snow argument is kind of weird.[/size] Fake? I think its called..."jealous" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 pretty decent signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 <br /><br /><br /> Im only about 30 or 40 miles west of Muncie! I hope my area can end up in the sweetspot for once! I think we have a good shot considering the tracks of the 8h 7h mb lows.<br /> Do you remember the fiasco on SR 37 last year? 100+ cars stuck on the Hamilton / Madison line? That was only a 5-7" snow if I remember right. Night of 2/5-6. Sent from my Droid using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I wasnt living in Hamilton county at that point but I do remember the storm. The winds were the problem if I remember correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 00z nam looks a tad better for central OH. Looks like the last minute north trend has ceased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 00z nam looks a tad better for central OH. Looks like the last minute north trend has ceased. As you were saying earlier, if you were just looking at the 700mb maps, you'd think I-70 would be the jackpot area, but somehow areas from IND to TOL are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 As you were saying earlier, if you were just looking at the 700mb maps, you'd think I-70 would be the jackpot area, but somehow areas from IND to TOL are. not according to the 00z nam anymore....looks like it best goes south of toledo edit: or I should say Toledo is the northern edge of the best stuff...which extends down thru cmh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 This says I-70 in Ohio is the jackpot area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.