baroclinic_instability Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 A thing of beauty would be that happening out this way. But yeah that is impressive to say the least. I guess we had Octobomb, but another good bomb would be nice. Too bad Octobomb wasn't Janubomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 I guess we had Octobomb, but another good bomb would be nice. Too bad Octobomb wasn't Janubomb. My hunch is that we are not done with the bombs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 320 PM CST MON JAN 10 2011 DISCUSSION SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY THE NEAR TERM OCCUPIED WITH HANDLING OF INCOMING INVERTED TROF COMPLEX AND SNOW EVENT. AFTER ASSESSING THE NEW 12Z SHORT RANGE RUNS...MUCH OF ONGOING PACKAGE STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. EAST- SOUTHEAST DRY LLVL FETCH HAVING A LARGE PRECIP SFC ARRIVAL INHIBITING EFFECT...BUT SIGNS OF LOWER LEVEL SATURATION FINALLY TAKING PLACE ACRS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA. THIS BATTLE TO LAST WELL INTO THE MID EVENING PERIOD...WITH MODERATE SNOW DEVELOPING ACRS THE FAR WEST AND SOUTH...WHILE THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA REMAINS DRY OR SEES JUST A FEW STRUGGLING FLAKES. SOME MORE WIDESPREAD BETTER RADAR RETURNS OF 25-30 DBZ/S NOTED ACRS MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST MO HEADED THIS WAY...BUT OF COURSE WILL HAVE TO BATTLE THE DRY LLVL FETCH. WILL WALK UP CATEGORICAL POPS ACRS MOST OF THE DVN CWA AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...AND INTO TUE MORNING BEFORE THE MORE ORGANIZED SNOW BANDS START TO PULL OUT OF THE EASTERN CWA LATER TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BOTH THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE RATHER DEEP SATURATION OF 150-200+ MB IN THE FAVORED -12 TO -18 C LAYER FOR DENDRITIC PRODUCTION AND HIGHER LSR/S MAINLY FROM 06Z-12Z OR SO TUE. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE OUT OF SINK HOWEVER WITH THIS SATURATION COMBINED WITH THE DEEPER LIFT...MORE OPTIMUM LIFT EARLIER IN THE EVENING STILL BATTLING DRYING LLVL FETCH WITH DEEPER SATURATION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHILE THE NAM IS MORE IN LOCK STEP WITH THE DEEPER SATURATION PROFILES. THUS THE NAM IS SUGGESTING WIDESPREAD 3.5 TO 5.5 INCH AMOUNTS ALMOST CWA-WIDE USING LSR/S OF 15:1 TO 18:1 AVERAGE...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE IN THE LINE OF 2-4 INCHES. EXTRAPOLATING UPSTREAM TRENDS AND SOME WORRY ABOUT THE VERTICAL PROFILES NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR SOME DECENT ACCUMULATIONS OF UPWARDS AN INCH AN HOUR DURING A 2-3 HR PERIOD BETWEEN 06Z-12Z TUE...WILL SIDE CLOSER TO THE NAM ACRS THE SOUTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA...AND THE DRIER GFS IN THE NORTHEAST AND FAR EASTERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA IN THE FACE OF DRYING INFLUX. ELEVATED FORCING IN VCNTY OF LLVL TROF AXIS AS IT PIVOTS OVER THE CWA...WILL BE AIDED BY PASSING H7 MB LOW AND NOSE OF 130+ KT LEFT EXIT REGION OFF UPPER JET HOOKING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND UP THE OH RVR VALLEY. COMBINED WITH DEEPER SATURATION...THIS FAVORS AN AXIS 30 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM WILLIAMSBURG IA...TO SOUTH OF MUSCATINE AND JUST EAST OF MONMOUTH IL FOR AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD 4-6 INCH AMOUNTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY. WILL EXPAND THE ADVISORY 1-2 COUNTIES TO THE NORTHEAST FRO WIDESPREAD 3-4 INCHES...ALTHOUGH THE FAR NORTHEAST FRINGE OF THE EXPANDED ADVISORY COUNTIES MAY BE MARGINAL WITH A QUICK DROP OFF OF SNOW ACCUM TOTALS FROM ONE PART OF THE COUNTY TO THE OTHER. IN GENERAL...A RATHER LONG DURATION ADVISORY IS EXPANDED SOME BUT CONTINUES AT SAME TIME PERIODS ALTHOUGH THE EASTERN ADVISORY COUNTIES WILL NOT HAVE IMPACTS TIL AFTER MID EVENING. ..12.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 12z IWX WRF still screwing southern MI but showing the lake enhancement/lake effect quite nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 KIRK 102155Z AUTO 09009KT 1/2SM SN FZFG VV005 M04/M06 A3016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 12z IWX WRF still screwing southern MI but showing the lake enhancement/lake effect quite nicely. Just one model....NAM/NAMM continue to show a general .24 give or take a few hundredths for southern lower....GFS a little less....to me a solid 3 or 4 inches looks about right....maybe 5 in the border counties if any semblance of banding or enhancement from Lake Erie occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I think you're too low. Things don't look to have changed all that much from last night. Final call for LAF is 4-6". I do think there could be isolated amounts over 6" around the area. With the DGZ still progged to be 150-200 mb deep, I'm counting on high ratios to get us there. Probably. But you know me, pessimistic until the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Probably. But you know me, pessimistic until the end. Surface/mid level low track, upper levels, large DGZ with good lift...whatever you want to look at, it's favorable. I suppose there's added confidence given our good fortune this winter, but this is a decent setup on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Surface/mid level low track, upper levels, large DGZ with good lift...whatever you want to look at, it's favorable. I suppose there's added confidence given our good fortune this winter, but this is a decent setup on its own. Can't deny any of the above. Like I said earlier, I fear getting caught in no man's land, which the 12z NAM kind of did to us. Regardless, I jumped too soon and probably should have left well enough alone. Anyways, you'll need to measure because I'm out of town...or I guess we could go by Chad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 With this storm, we should break our normal average seasonal total. We'll be making good progress to a Top 10 Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 With this storm, we should break our normal average seasonal total. We'll be making good progress to a Top 10 Winter. Yeah this will most likely put us above average. BTW, when we did our winter outlooks back in the Fall, I predicted 23" for LAF. Right where we're at right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yeah this will most likely put us above average. BTW, when we did our winter outlooks back in the Fall, I predicted 23" for LAF. Right where we're at right now. We've been doing it the traditional midwestern way, getting moderate dumps every 2-3 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Just one model....NAM/NAMM continue to show a general .24 give or take a few hundredths for southern lower....GFS a little less....to me a solid 3 or 4 inches looks about right....maybe 5 in the border counties if any semblance of banding or enhancement from Lake Erie occurs. ya i know, thats why I pointed it out, it has been doing that for several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 in terms of snow, as far as Muncie goes, I cant/wont complain. Its been a very good year so far, and based on climo its where it should be. Not that i proscribe to the Farmers, but what they have indicated has sort of held true so far, fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 snow really picking up now over IA moderate snow in many places looks like upgrade to warning may be needed if trends continue 0357 PM SNOW AUDUBON 41.72N 94.93W 01/10/2011 M7.0 INCH AUDUBON IA TRAINED SPOTTER 0502 PM SNOW YALE 41.78N 94.36W 01/10/2011 M6.0 INCH GUTHRIE IA TRAINED SPOTTER SNOWFALL REPORT FROM FIRE STATION 0206 PM SNOW CUMBERLAND 41.27N 94.87W 01/10/2011 M7.0 INCH CASS IA TRAINED SPOTTER STORM TOTAL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 snow really picking up now over IA moderate snow in many places looks like upgrade to warning may be needed if trends continue 0357 PM SNOW AUDUBON 41.72N 94.93W 01/10/2011 M7.0 INCH AUDUBON IA TRAINED SPOTTER 0502 PM SNOW YALE 41.78N 94.36W 01/10/2011 M6.0 INCH GUTHRIE IA TRAINED SPOTTER SNOWFALL REPORT FROM FIRE STATION 0206 PM SNOW CUMBERLAND 41.27N 94.87W 01/10/2011 M7.0 INCH CASS IA TRAINED SPOTTER STORM TOTAL yup...just saw that....amazing how that radar exploded....upper level energy diving in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 LOL...I think they call that karma. Did they really think last years 100" season wouldn't have a price? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Skillings RPM model showing 3-5" area wide, highest near lake but even out west getting 3.5" on that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 0400 PM SNOW SIOUX CITY 42.50N 96.39W 01/10/2011 M13.3 INCH WOODBURY IA OFFICIAL NWS OBS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Surprised local NWS didn't go with a WWA. Probably about 3" already, and this snow is greasy and very difficult to drive in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 With this storm, we should break our normal average seasonal total. We'll be making good progress to a Top 10 Winter. How Ironic...with this storm we will be making good progress toward a top 10 snowless winter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 radar filling in quickly west of I-39, probably some 1"/hr spots in there given the good ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sc2man13 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 How Ironic...with this storm we will be making good progress toward a top 10 snowless winter.... Yeah it has been pretty futile in Western MI this year. Only about 15 inches of snow on the season here when we should have somewhere well in the 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 area of good snow is western IA is right under the inverted trof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yeah it has been pretty futile in Western MI this year. Only about 15 inches of snow on the season here when we should have somewhere well in the 30s. It's amazing to me just how similar this winter is here as last winter...actually this year may be even worse. All these northerly lake effect events hitting Indiana combined with all the systems going west and south....it's just been so frustrating. Where do you live in Western Michigan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iastfan112 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 snow really picking up now over IA moderate snow in many places looks like upgrade to warning may be needed if trends continue 0357 PM SNOW AUDUBON 41.72N 94.93W 01/10/2011 M7.0 INCH AUDUBON IA TRAINED SPOTTER 0502 PM SNOW YALE 41.78N 94.36W 01/10/2011 M6.0 INCH GUTHRIE IA TRAINED SPOTTER SNOWFALL REPORT FROM FIRE STATION 0206 PM SNOW CUMBERLAND 41.27N 94.87W 01/10/2011 M7.0 INCH CASS IA TRAINED SPOTTER STORM TOTAL Problem is most areas started receiving snow around yesterday noon or early afternoon, thus don't look to achieve the 8 inch in 24 hrs criteria. I can verify that the snow west of I-35 has picked up in intensity but at least in my area I'm not achieving inch per hour rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Nice to come home and see the 18z models juice it up a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The average of the models gives us about 0.20", so I'm going with 2-3" here for a last call. Don't really know what to expect as far as flake size since it still isn't snowing. We've had virga overhead now for over 24hrs lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yeah this will most likely put us above average. BTW, when we did our winter outlooks back in the Fall, I predicted 23" for LAF. Right where we're at right now. Barring a dramatic stoppage in the snowfall, mine will be next to go down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It's amazing to me just how similar this winter is here as last winter...actually this year may be even worse. All these northerly lake effect events hitting Indiana combined with all the systems going west and south....it's just been so frustrating. Where do you live in Western Michigan? I have family in Muskegon & Norton Shores and head up there at least once a month. While there has been very little synoptic snow for the area season-to-date, I beleive you have made out just fine during the past couple lake events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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