A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 You're exaggerating. It's fairly similar. Especially with the upper level features compared to the SPC meso page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'm thinking in excess of 4 inches now 20 miles west of the loop... I'm sticking with a general 2-4" across northern IL with perhaps some isolated higher amounts. Best chance of 4" or more looks like it's near the lake where there could be some totals over 4". The winds are very light so it would probably stay very close to the shore, but there's a window where the thermodynamics look decent before the low level winds shift the activity farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Hoosier keeping hope alive. With the Euro and NAM now showing .25 or so, 2-4 isn't a bad call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 You're exaggerating. It's fairly similar. yea pretty close actually. Only thing i could see is it might be missing some of that stuff in northern Oklahoma....maybe not far enough with the southern extent of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 You're exaggerating. It's fairly similar. You can compare the H5 charts, H7 charts to the RUC and the current radar to the 18z NAM and see what is going on. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/ruc/hr3/images/ruc_500_012l.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_500_012l.gif If the H5 chart at midnight looks anything like the NAM has it. I would really shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 DTX is sticking with their previous/ongoing forecast. Dry air is their biggest concern and they're talking about less moisture now than during this morning's discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 DTX is sticking with their previous/ongoing forecast. Dry air is their biggest concern and they're talking about less moisture now than during this morning's discussion. less moisture? What model are they looking at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 ILN sticking to their guns. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 330 PM EST MON JAN 10 2011 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY. THE LOW WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY. AS IT EXITS...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... THOUGH A FEW BREAKS IN THE HIGHER DECK MAY BE FOUND EARLY THIS EVENING AM LOOKING FOR INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE TOP DOWN OVERNIGHT. LOWERED THE CHANCE FOR SNOW THROUGH MIDNIGHT BUT THEN LET IT RAMP UP PRETTY QUICKLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THINK THAT IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO SATURATE TONIGHT AND THE BRUNT OF THE WEATHER WILL OCCUR TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A VERY SLOW DROP IN TEMPS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND I TOOK THE TEMPERATURES TO BLEND WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WARMER MET GUIDANCE. REGARDING THE WARNING/ADVISORY...DID NOT CHANGE THE FORECAST. THINK THAT EVERYONE WILL FEEL IMPACT FROM THIS AND THE SNOW WILL START FLYING LATER TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... WINTER STORM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION WITH THE LIONS SHARE OF SNOW OCCURRING DURING THE DAY...TAPERING TO LIGHT SNOW IN THE EVENING. TRANSITIONED THE SNOW TO SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND A FAIRLY MOIST LOW LEVELS. DEPENDING ON WHERE ANY UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE PRESENT DURING THE DAY AND A PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY TROUGH IN THE EVENING... SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE PREVALENT WITH LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH. TOOK TEMPERATURES TO BE IN LINE WITH THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE. THOUGHT THAT THE MET WAS WAY TOO WARM IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND A FRESH SNOW PACK...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. WED NIGHT MET GUIDANCE WAS 8-9 DEG HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS IN FORECAST AND MAV GUIDANCE. BLENDED MAV AND PREV FCST FOR LATER PERIODS. BELIEVE THAT THE TRACK OF THE H8 LOW WILL DICTATE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...GENERALLY 5 INCHES. THINK THAT A GOOD 2-3 INCHES WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AND THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT WHERE WE HAVE 3-4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA. WSW CRITERIA IS SPLIT...SO NORTHERN CWA WILL REMAIN IN ADVISORY AND NOT BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 less moisture? What model are they looking at Yeah, it doesn't quite add up, but I can see their concern. Even GRR is calling for 3-5" in Jackson and IWX is calling for 2-4" in Hillsdale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 what's that about 18:1 ratios for your area Friv? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 You can compare the H5 charts, H7 charts to the RUC and the current radar to the 18z NAM and see what is going on. http://www.nco.ncep....uc_500_012l.gif http://www.nco.ncep....am_500_012l.gif If the H5 chart at midnight looks anything like the NAM has it. I would really shocked. We're pretty much in nowcast....I'll be watching that area of heaviest precip over central MO. According to the nam it tracks into central IL then into n. IN. That should tell us whether the nam is cracked or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 what's that about 18:1 ratios for your area Friv? lol, it is going to be torture..where I live most of the snow will stay to my west for the next 6 hours before a quick hit..I think 2-4 but the local mets say 4-5 inches. anyways..moderate snow is already within 25 miles of KSTL..and still forming and moving east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yeah, it doesn't quite add up, but I can see their concern. Even GRR is calling for 3-5" in Jackson and IWX is calling for 2-4" in Hillsdale. They have 2-5 in the zone here in Calhoun. Here is the snowfall map from GRR. Unsure of what DTX is thinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 They have 2-5 in the zone here in Calhoun. Here is the snowfall map from GRR. Unsure of what DTX is thinking? Yeah, they are saying around an inch for the Saginaw Valley but I think that is on the low side. They have a total of 2-3 inches here in the zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 LOT CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON... WITH RATHER STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY PER GOES WATER VAPOR. DIFFUSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING UP THE MO VALLEY ARE REFLECTIONS OF LIFT PROVIDED BY THIS SHORT WAVE...AND NICE AREA OF DIFFLUENCE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ALONG NORTH/NORTHEAST SIDE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL JET. GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING MORE ORGANIZED SFC LOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS MAIN SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST AND DEEPEN. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC AND MIDWEST SFC OBS INDICATE AREA OF SNOW HAS DEVELOPED FROM KS/MO/IA AND SOUTHERN MN AT THIS TIME...AND THIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST INTO WESTERN IL THIS EVENING. ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATES STRONGEST FORCING ACROSS THE AREA WILL COME TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...THOUGH WITH RETREATING SFC HIGH ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES AND ONTARIO...DRY EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE. FORCING ALONG NORTHERN PART OF DISTURBANCE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH TIME TUESDAY...AS MAIN VORT PROPAGATES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND CLOSED UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHWEST BECOMES MORE SHEARED OUT. BASED ON TRACK OF MAIN VORT AND SFC LOW ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...GREATEST SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF IL/IN/OH. STILL...ACCUMULATING SNOW ANTICIPATED ACROSS WFO LOT FORECAST AREA...WITH AN BLEND OF MODEL QPF AMOUNTS SUPPORTING GENERALLY 2-4" ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE CWA AND 3-5" AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTH. SOME QUESTION REMAINS ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH E/NE FLOW INTO NORTHEAST IL TUESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO DEPICT WEAK LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE...THOUGH LIGHT LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD MAY NOT ALLOW FOR APPRECIABLE MOISTURE FLUX TO THE DEGREE THAT SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD BE TOO MUCH HIGHER. HAVE INDICATE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN LAKESIDE COUNTIES...BY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 FWIW, GRR does briefly mention the dry air being a problem, but like I said it's a miniscule and brief mention. However, what they did emphasize is the possibility of higher amonts (in SC/SE Michigan) if the transfer takes longer than expected. Also advisories would likely be neded for Jackson/Lansing, but I believe they're waiting another cycle to be sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yeah, they are saying around an inch for the Saginaw Valley but I think that is on the low side. They have a total of 2-3 inches here in the zones. Yeah it seems strange for sure especially there where you are as i would *think* moisture off of Huron could help a little? Parts of the AFD from GRR. THIS IS NOT A LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT, AND WILL BE UNLIKE THE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME FRAME WHEN MOST OF THE SNOW FELL WEST OF HIGHWAY 131. ACTUALLY, THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS STORM ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH AND EAST OF GRAND RAPIDS WHERE 3 TO 5 INCH TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE. AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED NORTH AND WEST OF GRAND RAPIDS. HE MAIN CONCERN IS TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IT SEEMS THE CRUX OF PROBLEM IS HOW SOON THE EAST COAST LOW TAKES OVER AS THE MAIN SYSTEM. THE LONGER THAT TAKES, THE MORE SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CNTRL AND SE LWR MI. ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE LANSING AND JACKSON AREAS, ESPECIALLY SINCE IT APPEARS THE TUE EVENING COMMUTE COULD BE HIGHLY IMPACTED. CLOSED UPPER LOW NOW OVER ERN MONTANA IS PROGGED TO TRACK TO NEAR YOUNGSTOWN OHIO BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. INITIALLY THE SFC REFLECTION IS AN INVERTED TROUGH, ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A CLOSED CONTOUR SFC LOW EVENTUALLY FORMING OVER SRN IL BY 12Z TUE AND DEEPENING A BIT AS IT TRACKS NE TOWARD WRN PA BY 06Z WED. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A DECENT TROWAL FEATURE TO IMPACT THE SE PORTION OF THE GRR CWFA... INCLUDING LAN AND JXN... DURING THE TUESDAY EVENING COMMUTE. THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS IN TERMS OF QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS... AND OPTED ATTM FOR A BLEND OF THE TWO. DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS MAY DELAY THE ONSET OF THE SNOW WHICH COULD CUT DOWN A BIT ON TOTAL AMOUNTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 It looks like it will take much of the day just to saturate the atmosphere around here. The eastward progress of the actual snowfall is painfully slow. Ottumwa finally just reported light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 sioux city, ia over a foot so far 0110 PM SNOW SIOUX CITY 42.50N 96.39W 01/10/2011 M12.2 INCH WOODBURY IA OFFICIAL NWS OBS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 very light snow has started here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 They have 2-5 in the zone here in Calhoun. Here is the snowfall map from GRR. Unsure of what DTX is thinking? So typical DTX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 18z nam initialized so far off from what is happening now it's really sad. I just checked and it shows 10.3" for me. It has to be right. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_namm/nam_gvs.dat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 It looks like it will take much of the day just to saturate the atmosphere around here. The eastward progress of the actual snowfall is painfully slow. Ottumwa finally just reported light snow. friv might have a point about the 18z nam. I just checked and it shows a pretty good thump for the western and central parts of IA at hour 6z and 12z. Here's the current radar loop. Doesn't look too promising, unless it's expected to really start filling in fast. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?radar_us+/2h/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uxhpUmMpKWU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 http://www.youtube.c...h?v=uxhpUmMpKWU The coastal hooking well within the BM is a think of beauty. Some models tank the surface low 28 hpa in 18 hours. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Zone forecast has me at 4-6 inches. ZONE FORECAST PRODUCTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 355 PM EST MON JAN 10 2011 OHZ051>053-061-062-110945- MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MONTGOMERY-GREENE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PIQUA...URBANA...SPRINGFIELD...DAYTON... XENIA 355 PM EST MON JAN 10 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...CLOUDY. A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW...MAINLY LATE. LOWS 15 TO 20. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. .TUESDAY...SNOW. ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 100 PERCENT. .TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY IN THE EVENING...BECOMING SCATTERED AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. LOWS 15 TO 20. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The first flurries just hit the ground outside my window. I thought it would take a couple more hours. Still, there shouldn't be any decent snow until evening, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 The coastal hooking well within the BM is a think of beauty. Some models tank the surface low 28 hpa in 18 hours. Impressive. A thing of beauty would be that happening out this way. But yeah that is impressive to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 http://www.worldstarhiphop.com/videos/video.php?v=wshh7jJmXbnwccf8xHf4 omg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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