buckeye Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Buckeye, did you take a look at the 12Z GFS bufkit? It only had .17" of qpf for us and still gave us 3.2" of snow. Almost 20:1 ratios. That definitely has boosted my confidence a bit. i'm hoping it's too low with qpf....having to rely on high ratios is like waiting for a reach-around, (backside snow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Nah, dry air FTL here. This is a different storm than those systems of December. LAF gets caught in between no man's land between the upper low out west and the developing low pressure system that tracks along the Ohio River. BTW, Lebanon 3-5". I think you're too low. Things don't look to have changed all that much from last night. Final call for LAF is 4-6". I do think there could be isolated amounts over 6" around the area. With the DGZ still progged to be 150-200 mb deep, I'm counting on high ratios to get us there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Looks like bowme is cashing in early. 1230 PM SNOW 1 SE MILWAUKEE TIMMERMA 43.10N 88.02W 01/10/2011 M1.0 INCH MILWAUKEE WI PUBLIC That scalliwag is probably still hung over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I think you're too low. Things don't look to have changed all that much from last night. Final call for LAF is 4-6". I do think there could be isolated amounts over 6" around the area. With the DGZ still progged to be 150-200 mb deep, I'm counting on high ratios to get us there. LAF has managed to sneak into sweet spots a lot this year. I was thinking 2-3, but the Euro leads me to believe 3-5 might be more like it down that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Already Saturated here, snowing in West County about 20 miles west of KSTL did not expect that...18z RUC has snow develop east to me in 1 hour or so...with light accums. still I can't believe we are saturated so fast, how can that happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 That scalliwag is probably still hung over. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Already Saturated here, snowing in West County about 20 miles west of KSTL did not expect that...18z RUC has snow develop east to me in 1 hour or so...with light accums. still I can't believe we are saturated so fast, how can that happen. 850 mb moisture influx is pretty impressive, especially for this type of storm. I kind of figured we would see the atmosphere moisten up pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Looks like the heaviest precip on the radar is going along and south of I-70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Looks like the heaviest precip on the radar is going along and south of I-70. Looks good, bu the duration will be quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Happy Birthday! I assume Hoosier has now lifted your 24 HOUR 5-post ban now that it has been OVER 24 hours? He's still banned??? Wow! Where are the banned rules posted anyway? Just curious. Starting to see low level clouds working in from the southwest. I love the anticipation of the first big(ger) snow! Radar looks rather impressive in Missouri...what are the snow rates over there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 How do you find the DGZ in a forecast sounding? It's the region of the atmosphere where the temperature is -12C to -18C. On the sounding posted on the last page it appears to be located from about 600 mb to 775 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 It's the region of the atmosphere where the temperature is -12C to -18C. On the sounding posted on the last page it appears to be located from about 600 mb to 775 mb. Thank you!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 18z NAM looks good for LAF north east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Keep bringing it north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 might just be a blip run, but this is a pretty nice intensity increase from 6z 6z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Just updated and increased amounts all over. guess they like what they are seeing out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I am calling for 2"-3" down my way... Feeling bullish today for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I am calling for 2"-3" down my way... Feeling bullish today for some reason. You're in the southwest metro area right? If so you could see more than that. Euro increased amounts to .25 and latest NAM looks beefier at 700mb which might help the area tap into the deep DGZ a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 might just be a blip run, but this is a pretty nice intensity increase from 6z hmm, seems the heavier 700rh omegas aren't matching up well with the precip output....looking at the second map you posted, you would expect equally heavy precip over southern ohio in the next frame, but its only heavier over nw and central ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 You're in the southwest metro area right? If so you could see more than that. Euro increased amounts to .25 and latest NAM looks beefier at 700mb which might help the area tap into the deep DGZ a little better. I'm thinking in excess of 4 inches now 20 miles west of the loop... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GFS: .2 NAM: .25 Don't know about EURO or anything like that, but 15-20:1 ratios at .2 QPF would be somewhere around 3-4 inches. I would lock that in, in a heart beat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Keep bringing it north Agreed!!! We need one of these systems to actually start looking BETTER as it gets closer in time and not falling apart on our doorstep...This one may be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 hmm, seems the heavier 700rh omegas aren't matching up well with the precip output....looking at the second map you posted, you would expect equally heavy precip over southern ohio in the next frame, but its only heavier over nw and central ohio. 18z nam initialized so far off from what is happening now it's really sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 You're in the southwest metro area right? If so you could see more than that. Euro increased amounts to .25 and latest NAM looks beefier at 700mb which might help the area tap into the deep DGZ a little better. Sounds good to me... I am in the I-55/I-290/I-294 triangle at the SW corner of it. DuPage County is 1/2 mile from me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NWS Cleveland has gone with Winter Weather Advisory for Northwest OH from 8 am tomorrow morning to 8 am Wednesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 18z nam initialized so far off from what is happening now it's really sad. guessing that explains why it seems a little far nw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 18z nam initialized so far off from what is happening now it's really sad. in what way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 i guess it appears to be too far north with best precip out in MO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 18z nam initialized so far off from what is happening now it's really sad. You're exaggerating. It's fairly similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NWS Paducah doesn't sound real happy with Louisville AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 229 PM CST MON JAN 10 2011 UPDATE JUST HAD A DISCUSSION WITH WFO LOUISVILLE. THEY WANT TO EXTEND THEIR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO THE TENNESSEE BORDER. THAT WOULD IN EFFECT BOX US IN WITH ADVISORIES. IT IS NOT MY PREFERENCE TO ISSUE ONE...BUT GIVEN LOCAL LEEWAY IN OUR POLICY...WITH RESPECT TO ADVISORIES...THIS IS HOW I WILL SPIN IT. SINCE THE SNOW MAY HAVE A SLIGHTLY GREATER REGIONAL IMPACT BY HAPPENING LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING (SCHOOL DECISIONS...MORNING TRAVEL...ETC) WILL GO AHEAD AND FILL IN THE GAP. ITS PURELY COSMETIC AND NOT CRITERIA DRIVEN. WILL MAYBE TWEAK THE FORECAST TO SAY AROUND AN INCH AND REAFFIRM THE IMPACTS. AND...WE WOULD RATHER CONVEY A MORE CONSISTENT DEPICTION THAT OUR USERS AND PARTNERS CAN WORK WITH. .NOLES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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