A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 looking at soundings for northern IL, the 12z NAM is showing a 200mb or deeper DGZ from 6z tues to 18z tues. nearing 300mb deep from 6z-9z! very impressive so say the least. You seem pretty upbeat on what i feel is a pretty plane jane event, hoping you're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 You seem pretty upbeat on what i feel is a pretty plane jane event, hoping you're right. we'll see but I think there could be some surprises, hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 anyone, (Moneyman?), got euro totals for our region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 12z NMM... 12z ARW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 anyone, (Moneyman?), got euro totals for our region? CMH: 0.23" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 waht did euro have for STL? I bet 0.22 Looking like a .2 to .3 event here, so 3-5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 CMH: 0.23" thanks.. so much for the banter in the other region threads about the 500 low looking much stronger over the OV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 waht did euro have for STL? I bet 0.22 Looking like a .2 to .3 event here, so 3-5 inches 0.20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 thanks.. so much for the banter in the other region threads about the 500 low looking much stronger over the OV. The best axis shifted north and now favors LAF to FWA to DTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 12Z Euro DET/DTW: 0.34 PTK: 0.33 GRR: 0.22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 12z guidance matched up relatively well with my previous thinking. These cold profile/deep DGZ events often suprise. So...I'll keep with my narrow low end warning snow amount forecast between IND and OKK to Muncie, Lima OH where decent mid frontogenetical band likely pivots through. Otherwise...widespread advisory event for many across OH, southeast MI, and IN. Given potential good ratios think Chicago could get 3-6" out of this...although I probably would not forecast that much at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 ummm...surprise not suprise. Doh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 then the jma comes in with the heaviest snow axis in ohio along the ohio river. this will be a fun one to watch unfold. Pretty much everyone in the game off the bench, IL, MI, IN, OH, KY.... Let's see who does what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 the jma lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 then the jma comes in with the heaviest snow axis in ohio along the ohio river. this will be a fun one to watch unfold. Pretty much everyone in the game off the bench, IL, MI, IN, OH, KY.... Let's see who does what. Well...at least we can officially cross that possible solution off the list now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Well...at least we can officially cross that possible solution off the list now. lol...hey it did ok with the last one.... blind squirrels can find 2 nuts sometimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Few questions here.. 1.) How well do long range models do in the short range? I would assume that using the wrf,nam and other short range models would be best in this time frame. 2.)What are the thoughts on banding with this. What about cyclogenisis(baro) Possible Thundersnow in some areas? 3.)What are some reports coming out of NE today is it Overperforming/underperforming? Basically I am sticking with the snow map I posted last night. I still believe the best shot in OH for greater than 6" would be from CLE/NE OH down to CMH And east. I do believe some areas in there will get 6 or 7" with some isolated 8" amounts around CLE down to MFD. I will throw an out of state number too PIT I believe could see 6" with this storm. A general 4-6" snow from a line of IND-CMH-PIT with locally heavier amounts along that line. Anyways, will chime in at some point again after the 0z runs I guess. Take care all and Good luck to those west as the storm crosses your region. Oh and one other thing, it's my birthday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 thanks.. so much for the banter in the other region threads about the 500 low looking much stronger over the OV. I wouldn't worry much about what the Euro shows within 24 to 36 hours....I think we are sitting in a pretty good spot for high end advisory maybe even low end warning totals. Quite likely we get to 6 inches by Wednesday afternoon, but that of course is not in the time range for a warning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 suny mm5 wth, even ugly models need lov'n http://cheget.msrc.sunysb.edu/loop/36km.slp.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Few questions here.. 1.) How well do long range models do in the short range? I would assume that using the wrf,nam and other short range models would be best in this time frame. 2.)What are the thoughts on banding with this. What about cyclogenisis(baro) Possible Thundersnow in some areas? 3.)What are some reports coming out of NE today is it Overperforming/underperforming? Basically I am sticking with the snow map I posted last night. I still believe the best shot in OH for greater than 6" would be from CLE/NE OH down to CMH And east. I do believe some areas in there will get 6 or 7" with some isolated 8" amounts around CLE down to MFD. I will throw an out of state number too PIT I believe could see 6" with this storm. A general 4-6" snow from a line of IND-CMH-PIT with locally heavier amounts along that line. Anyways, will chime in at some point again after the 0z runs I guess. Take care all and Good luck to those west as the storm crosses your region. Oh and one other thing, it's my birthday Happy Birthday man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Few questions here.. 1.) How well do long range models do in the short range? I would assume that using the wrf,nam and other short range models would be best in this time frame. 2.)What are the thoughts on banding with this. What about cyclogenisis(baro) Possible Thundersnow in some areas? 3.)What are some reports coming out of NE today is it Overperforming/underperforming? Basically I am sticking with the snow map I posted last night. I still believe the best shot in OH for greater than 6" would be from CLE/NE OH down to CMH And east. I do believe some areas in there will get 6 or 7" with some isolated 8" amounts around CLE down to MFD. I will throw an out of state number too PIT I believe could see 6" with this storm. A general 4-6" snow from a line of IND-CMH-PIT with locally heavier amounts along that line. Anyways, will chime in at some point again after the 0z runs I guess. Take care all and Good luck to those west as the storm crosses your region. Oh and one other thing, it's my birthday at this point i'd put as much stock in this guess as anyones. My guess is a little more conservative. happy bday...hope you got your 5 post-a-day suspension lifted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Happy Birthday! I assume Hoosier has now lifted your 24 HOUR 5-post ban now that it has been OVER 24 hours? Few questions here.. 1.) How well do long range models do in the short range? I would assume that using the wrf,nam and other short range models would be best in this time frame. 2.)What are the thoughts on banding with this. What about cyclogenisis(baro) Possible Thundersnow in some areas? 3.)What are some reports coming out of NE today is it Overperforming/underperforming? Basically I am sticking with the snow map I posted last night. I still believe the best shot in OH for greater than 6" would be from CLE/NE OH down to CMH And east. I do believe some areas in there will get 6 or 7" with some isolated 8" amounts around CLE down to MFD. I will throw an out of state number too PIT I believe could see 6" with this storm. A general 4-6" snow from a line of IND-CMH-PIT with locally heavier amounts along that line. Anyways, will chime in at some point again after the 0z runs I guess. Take care all and Good luck to those west as the storm crosses your region. Oh and one other thing, it's my birthday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The NAM has been consistent for several runs now, and in my opinion appears to have a good handle on things. I'm really liking this system./set-up, and haven't felt this confident so far this year. Just about everything is coming together to promote really nice snow growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 suny mm5 wth, even ugly models need lov'n http://cheget.msrc.s...p/36km.slp.html LMAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Well it's snowing here but a lot of it is melting, kind of strange for it to melt this time of year with a temp at 27-28. We probably have 1/2 to 3/4 of an inch down here on the grass. Looks like the 2nd round of snow is developing to the west across Kansas associated with the jet. But I got some decent sized flakes after the radar showed the precip had passed here. I hope the 2nd round makes it here before dark so I can see heavier snow rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 suny mm5 wth, even ugly models need lov'n http://cheget.msrc.s...p/36km.slp.html Yeah the SUNY Stonybrook MM5 is made with coastal lows in mind where non-hydrostatic and mesoscale/microscale effects apply and play a prominent role in development. Pretty worthless elsewhere. It does have its uses though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 at this point i'd put as much stock in this guess as anyones. My guess is a little more conservative. Buckeye, did you take a look at the 12Z GFS bufkit? It only had .17" of qpf for us and still gave us 3.2" of snow. Almost 20:1 ratios. That definitely has boosted my confidence a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Looks like bowme is cashing in early. 1230 PM SNOW 1 SE MILWAUKEE TIMMERMA 43.10N 88.02W 01/10/2011 M1.0 INCH MILWAUKEE WI PUBLIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yeah the SUNY Stonybrook MM5 is made with coastal lows in mind where non-hydrostatic and mesoscale/microscale effects apply and play a prominent role in development. Pretty worthless elsewhere. It does have its uses though. suny mm5 is one of the rare models that tends to have a fetish for app runners. That's why it's my favorite special-needs model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 How do you find the DGZ in a forecast sounding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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