A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Final call for mby <1": 20% 1-2": 70% 2.1"+: 10% That would be an excellent call for MBY as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 We will probably see around 4-5" total here and the NWS didn't even bother with an advisory since it will be so light and over such a long period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Last call for central Indiana. LAF: 2-4" IND: 4-6" MIE: 4-6: BMG: 3-5" HUF: 3-5" A few random other calls: ORD: 1-3" STL: 3-5" CMH: 4-6" CLE: 4-7" DTW: 3-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Last call for central Indiana. LAF: 2-4" IND: 4-6" MIE: 4-6: BMG: 3-5" HUF: 3-5" A few random other calls: ORD: 1-3" STL: 3-5" CMH: 4-6" CLE: 4-7" DTW: 3-6" :wub: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 not that anyone wants to read another snow report from MN but got about 2" so far and snowing nicely with the fluffy flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Last call for central Indiana. LAF: 2-4" IND: 4-6" MIE: 4-6: BMG: 3-5" HUF: 3-5" A few random other calls: ORD: 1-3" STL: 3-5" CMH: 4-6" CLE: 4-7" DTW: 3-6" I think your too low for LAF. This season has been one of over achievers, this storm will be no different.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 not that anyone wants to read another snow report from MN but got about 2" so far and snowing nicely with the fluffy flakes. Already? Nice. Yeah the Star Tribune this morning was calling for 2-3" storm total. Way too light for this long duration flurry-fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sc2man13 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Models predicting between .10 and .20 for GRR. I say we get somewhere between 1-3 inches, even with low moisture ratios should be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 36hr rgem throw'n the love to LAF, IND, DAY, CMH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Already? Nice. Yeah the Star Tribune this morning was calling for 2-3" storm total. Way too light for this long duration flurry-fest. yeah, started here around 10pm last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I think your too low for LAF. This season has been one of over achievers, this storm will be no different.. Nah, dry air FTL here. This is a different storm than those systems of December. LAF gets caught in between no man's land between the upper low out west and the developing low pressure system that tracks along the Ohio River. BTW, Lebanon 3-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 LL FLW IN WAKE OF SRN STREAM SW HAMPERING GREATER LL MSTR RTN AND W/AVERAGE MIXING RATIOS AROUND 2G/KG SPRTG A GENERAL 3-5IN SNOW W/SLIGHTLY HIGHER 5-7IN AMTS SHLD MESOBANDING MATERIALIZE AND WELL WITHIN ADVISORY CRITERIA. HWVR CAN NOT RULE OUT WARNING CRITERIA OF 6IN/12HRS ACRS SE CWA INVOF OF DEEPENING MID LVL TROUGH AND DEEPER NWD LL MSTR PENETRATION. That is part of the latest short-term Area Forecast Discussion from the National Weather Service in Northern Indiana. I thought I share that tidbit with you all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GFS beefing up the S/W through the OV through 36. I also predict, based on the upper level height field, this will be closer inside the BM and closer to the meso models with the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GFS beefing up the S/W through the OV through 36. I also predict, based on the upper level height field, this will be closer inside the BM and closer to the meso models with the coastal. I suppose it looks like maybe a small uptick in QPF although based upon the Mid/Upper support strengthening I'd imagine the QPF is probably being underdone a hair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The dry air is dangerously close to my location. I hope the LES pans out to add generously to my totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Whats up man!! its 50/50. True. One of the mets there, the climatologist Bill Deedler, he loves snow but says he likes to take a conservative approach at forecasting. Seems quite a few mets (certainly not all) who love snow let that get in the way of forecasting and they start to mix forecasting with wishcasting, Look at the Dec 12th storm, they upgraded DTW from advisory to a warning when the storm was about 60-70% over. They should not have played the conservative route there. However I have seen other instances where they didnt play the conservative route and in the end that would have been best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 This is an interesting storm. It will definitely be an efficient snow producer given cold profile and such a deep/saturated DGZ. I would not be surprised if we see a narrow swath of low end warning snows just north and west of the 850 mb low track. Too bad we couldn't get the good GOM moisture track with this one though. I think 2-4" is a good bet in my backyard, with the just north of Indy to CLE axis ending up the winners from this event. I think your call looks pretty good from what the 12z have come out with so far. Seem to be showing the best hit from central IN, then slightly northeast to CLE area. Probably the heaviest missing cmh a bit to the nw I would expect ILN to drop the warnings for that stripe of counties in south central OH. Advisories should probably handle most OH counties. I'm thinking 2-4 is probably an adequate call here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Jan 22, 2005 10-13 inches in the Detrot area really high ratios and moisture +0.50" The official total for DTW with that blizzard was 12.2" snowfall on just 0.51" water. However, I wonder if they used ASOS, as I used the old-fashioned rain gague method, and measured 11.0" imby with 0.66" water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 drool..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 This is an interesting storm. It will definitely be an efficient snow producer given cold profile and such a deep/saturated DGZ. I would not be surprised if we see a narrow swath of low end warning snows just north and west of the 850 mb low track. Too bad we couldn't get the good GOM moisture track with this one though. I think 2-4" is a good bet in my backyard, with the just north of Indy to CLE axis ending up the winners from this event. How far north? (Am I in a good spot?) (Yes, an IMBY question.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Here in lincoln snowfall as of 10am is 6.3" (got shafed yesterday evening with dry air, but am hoping for some redevelopment (extra 1/2 inch) as models slowed the system down too much here(only a few flurries right now, but they showed snow thorugh evening here) per airport .56" of liquid through 10am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 That radar grab looks like it might be a solid analog, good luck to Detroit, that place seems overdue for a big one. Detroit is way overdue for a bomb, but climatologically speaking, not really for a "big" one if you just mean 6"+. Its going to be tough to beat the Dec 12th storm, 6.3" at DTW, this will very safely however be the 2nd biggest storm of the season so far. However, if DTW does officially get 6.0"+ with this (not looking likely) it will become the 20th storm in the past 10 years to drop 6"+, which is WELL above climo. The only other time we saw that many in a 10-year span was when we saw 21 storms between 1973-1983 drop 6"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The dry air is dangerously close to my location. I hope the LES pans out to add generously to my totals. Forgot about the LES aspect...maybe that's saves the day for OKK. Downward trends for LAF with the 12z runs. I think I'll percentage it out like SSC did for his backyard. 1"...60% 2"...30% 3"...10% 4"+...0% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 12z NAM sticking to its consistent guns. Per the BUFR website its qpf for DTW the last 4 runs, almost amazing how consistent its been. 1/10- 12z: 0.36" 1/10- 06z: 0.36" 1/10- 00z: 0.36" 1/09- 18z: 0.30" The 12z GFS remains drier HOWEVER it does now bring the 0.25"+ line back up over SE MI, east of a Port Huron - Ann Arbor - Adrian line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Forgot about the LES aspect...maybe that's saves the day for OKK. Downward trends for LAF with the 12z runs. I think I'll percentage it out like SSC did for his backyard. 1"...60% 2"...30% 3"...10% 4"+...0% yep, the last 24 hrs of model runs did the exact opposite of what i would have expected....weakening the precip a bit. The funny thing is that all the other parameters lke the mid an upperlevels seem to have remained consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 yep, the last 24 hrs of model runs did the exact opposite of what i would have expected....weakening the precip a bit. The funny thing is that all the other parameters lke the mid an upperlevels seem to have remained consistent. Euro FTW it seems. What are you thinking for CMH? I think 3-5" looks realistic for YBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Forgot about the LES aspect...maybe that's saves the day for OKK. Downward trends for LAF with the 12z runs. I think I'll percentage it out like SSC did for his backyard. 1"...60% 2"...30% 3"...10% 4"+...0% Wow, is that aleking incognito? If those are the numbers for LAF I might not see a flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Euro FTW it seems. What are you thinking for CMH? I think 3-5" looks realistic for YBY. i was originally thinking 3-5" but after watching the last couple of runs, 2-4" may handle it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'm sticking to my guns of 4-7 inches. All the factors are coming together across Southeastern and Eastern Indiana and a good chunk of Ohio for a really nice hit. Wouldn't be surprised if there are a few rumbles of thunder, particularly in Southeastern Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Wow, is that aleking incognito? If those are the numbers for LAF I might not see a flake. Nah, it's just reality at this point. 12z NAM looks awfully similar to the Euro which shows the dry air monster sucking the life out it here. Plus like I said earlier...we get stuck in the middle between the upper low to the west and the "too late for LAF" developing OV system. Places to the south and east should make out fine as the OV system transverses east/northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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