buckeye Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 ILN going with 3-5inches with locally 6 in spots and a WWA for most with a small area of WSW in the northern part of the lower criteria area. http://www.erh.noaa....ILN&versions=36 was kinda disappointed that the nam and gfs have not stepped up precip any...in fact overall the last 24 hrs has been to weaken slightly. Advisory is probably a good call...we'll see what 12z spits out but right now i'm thinking closer to 3 than 5. Reading jb this morning he mentions that he knows the models are showing less than what he thinks but believes that the dynamics will be there and that in conjunction with higher ratios should win the day. We'll see, he's been horrendous. Either way i still think this has a decent shot to be our biggest of the season so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I will take 3"!!! LOL. Honestly, I cannot remember the last time I saw 3"+ on the ground. Enjoy this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The thing is if the NAM is right they are going to be low. Its the same reputive forecast every storm with DTX. They will always take the lower end models. NAM has been really consistent. This is solid 3-6 inch event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I will take 3"!!! LOL. Honestly, I cannot remember the last time I saw 3"+ on the ground. Enjoy this one! trust me...i'm not complaining. Also, we already have a snowcover around the area 1.5-2" depending on where you are. Snow on snow is another rarity around here. Also some indications that it might be snow on snow on snow, (this weekend).....and then again a shot next week before the pattern collapses. its all good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 For a serious call widespread 1 to 2 LOT wide. Lake enhancement looks useless and dry air should be a pretty major player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'm liking the jet streak progged to enter the Lower Ohio Valley (Southern Indiana into most of Ohio). This could really help enhance snowfall rates tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'm liking the jet streak progged to enter the Lower Ohio Valley (Southern Indiana into most of Ohio). This could really help enhance snowfall rates tomorrow afternoon. yep, everything is about as perfect as you could ask for to put i-70 in a sweetspot....jetstreak, 850 low, h7low, 500 low and even being right along the -8 850 line. The big question marks are precip....dry air...overall eventual dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Looks like dry air is around initially but moisture is around for middle and end of event. High ratios at the end should make up for any lack of moisture at the beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Its the same reputive forecast every storm with DTX. They will always take the lower end models. NAM has been really consistent. This is solid 3-6 inch event. I agree. Many times they do end up being right tho.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 This is an interesting storm. It will definitely be an efficient snow producer given cold profile and such a deep/saturated DGZ. I would not be surprised if we see a narrow swath of low end warning snows just north and west of the 850 mb low track. Too bad we couldn't get the good GOM moisture track with this one though. I think 2-4" is a good bet in my backyard, with the just north of Indy to CLE axis ending up the winners from this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I agree. Many times they do end up being right tho.. Whats up man!! its 50/50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Whats up man!! its 50/50. Yup... Last minute forecasting, always fun.. Nam is still the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yup... Last minute forecasting, always fun.. Nam is still the same. Almost Identical to the last run.. still a solid 3-6 inches. 0.25 - 0.35 15/16 to 1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 12z NAM comes in lower here with QPF through 36 hours...no shocker there. Interestingly though, it does increase QPF in IA farther east. Maybe some love for the guys in Cedar Rapids and the QC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Almost Identical to the last run.. still a solid 3-6 inches. 0.25 - 0.35 15/16 to 1 ratios Yup. this usly is a good setup for us...But the UGLY GFS lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Almost Identical to the last run.. still a solid 3-6 inches. 0.25 - 0.35 15/16 to 1 ratios I remeber that one storm back in 2005??? Exactly same thing happened, and a 3-6" snowfall was expected, we got 12-13 or so, due to the high snow ratios. Only .4 qpf were the models showing, even less.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 lol, LOT CWA FTL. Also LAF is back to being the suck. Riding my 2-4" call. For the IND CWA, heaviest stripe (4-6") through IND-MIE, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NAM 12Z thru 60 HR QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I remeber that one storm back in 2005??? Exactly same thing happened, and a 3-6" snowfall was expected, we got 12-13 or so, due to the high snow ratios. Only .4 qpf were the models showing, even less.. Snow ratios were around 20/22 to 1 with that event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 12z NAM comes in lower here with QPF through 36 hours...no shocker there. Interestingly though, it does increase QPF in IA farther east. Maybe some love for the guys in Cedar Rapids and the QC. NAM has been inconsistent the last few runs with the QPF field around here. The 00z suddenly dropped a big dry hole into east-central Iowa, but the 06z and 12z have really ramped it back up. The 00z had me down under 0.2", but now I'm up to nearly 0.4". The Des Moines area has been bumped up pretty good as well. The last two runs definitely have the energy doing less pivoting around the area to the south. Now we'll just see if it pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NAM 12Z thru 60 HR QPF +100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NAM has been inconsistent the last few runs with the QPF field around here. The 00z suddenly dropped a big dry hole into east-central Iowa, but the 06z and 12z have really ramped it back up. The 00z had me down under 0.2", but now I'm up to nearly 0.4". The Des Moines area has been bumped up pretty good as well. The last two runs definitely have the energy doing less pivoting around the area to the south. Now we'll just see if it pans out. Yeah trends looking up for you. I saw the DMX advisory had 6-11" totals...that's a pretty nice hit. Hopefully it translates farther east, although obviously not 6-11", but it seems 6" may not be as unattainable as once thought. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 LMK went down about an inch for totals in SDF metro. We'll probably see around 3" on average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 +100 Jan 22, 2005 10-13 inches in the Detrot area really high ratios and moisture +0.50" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Jan 22, 2005 10-13 inches in the Detrot area really high ratios and moisture +0.50" That radar grab looks like it might be a solid analog, good luck to Detroit, that place seems overdue for a big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 That radar grab looks like it might be a solid analog, good luck to Detroit, that place seems overdue for a big one. It's too bad that's where the similarities end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 That radar grab looks like it might be a solid analog, good luck to Detroit, that place seems overdue for a big one. Not unless you're expecting 11.2", which is what Chicago ended up with from that storm. Plus that was a 3 day event with multiple impulses ripping through. Regardless, I see I what you're saying with regard to the radar grab at that moment...probably will see something similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Final call for mby <1": 20% 1-2": 70% 2.1"+: 10% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Let the 48 hour flurry-fest begin. Light, fine snowfall here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Not unless you're expecting 11.2", which is what Chicago ended up with from that storm. Plus that was a 3 day event with multiple impulses ripping through. Regardless, I see I what you're saying with regard to the radar grab at that moment...probably will see something similar. Yeah that's really all i mean, simulated radar on the 12z NAM and hi-res NNM isn't all that different at hr 42. Obviously i'm not calling for double digit amounts anywhere outside the plains and coast, but southeast Mich and Ohio could get a nice 3-5" event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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