snowlover2 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 First things first, would like to apologize if I made anyone mad last night, it was an honest mistake. And yes I am still on the 5 post thing, so Im not gonna reply to anyone.. Enough of that. As per the storm. Mostly everything has been covered where the models are concerned so I wanted to post my map for Ohio.. Basing it more on the NAM, as I dont buy the underdone qpf on the gfs. But anyways here ya go. Enjoy.. Nice map. Agree with it completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 This close in I tend to lean toward the NAM more then the GOV(gfs). So Im calling for a nice 3-5 inch snowfall with 15 to 1 ratios for all of the Detroit area. Sounds good. With 1-2" on the ground before the storm arrives, it looks as though we may regain the nice snowdepth we had much of December. Only this time instead of a grinch torch in the offing, looks to stay cold, so we will be able to build on it as time goes on, accounting for settling of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 ORD 0z NAM-.28" 0z GFS-.20" with good ratios I will be happy with 3" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I think I will go with a solid 3-5 south of a line from Battle Creek to Saginaw for DTX/GRR areas, there could be a couple of sneaky 6s around the area but those will be the overachievers. North of that line probably 1-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I see the GFS ensemble mean for 00z have the 0.25"+ line across the southern 1.5-2 rows of counties in MI, with a little extension northward in SE MI. So once again, better than the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I see the GFS ensemble mean for 00z have the 0.25"+ line across the southern 1.5-2 rows of counties in MI, with a little extension northward in SE MI. So once again, better than the OP. 0z GEFS QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The EURO should be running about right now right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 00Z Euro DSM: 0.44 DBQ: 0.19 FSM: 0.15 ORD: 0.14 MKE: 0.10 MSP: 0.24 STL: 0.24 PIA: 0.24 IND: 0.27 GRR: 0.11 DET: 0.21 DTW: 0.22 PTK: 0.20 TOL: 0.23 FDY: 0.27 CMH: 0.27 DAY: 0.27 SDF: 0.21 YYZ: 0.08 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 0z IWX WRF some images off the LSX WRF again?? lucky SOB's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 0z IWX WRF some images off the LSX WRF again?? lucky SOB's Ya I'll pass on this, it shafts the entire northern half of the low track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 So a blend of the NAM/GFS seems to be what the Euro continues to show and is my going forecast. Looks like everything is still in tact for now. Would make me feel better to see the GFS increase QPF but as you guys said it is likely having issues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 the NAM is showing a crazy deep DGZ here tuesday morning around 250mb or so. given some decent lift through that this could be interesting. even if were not getting a big amount of snow, I will still be happy with a few inches and big flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 00Z Euro DSM: 0.44 DBQ: 0.19 FSM: 0.15 ORD: 0.14 MKE: 0.10 MSP: 0.24 STL: 0.24 PIA: 0.24 IND: 0.27 GRR: 0.11 DET: 0.21 DTW: 0.22 PTK: 0.20 TOL: 0.23 FDY: 0.27 CMH: 0.27 DAY: 0.27 SDF: 0.21 YYZ: 0.08 Thanks for these qpf updates all the time btw. So for the 00z runs we have for DTW NAM: 0.40" EURO: 0.22" GFS: 0.20" Lets say we have 15-1 ratios, Id say a 3-5" with locally 6" forecast would be decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 the NAM is showing a crazy deep DGZ here tuesday morning around 250mb or so. given some decent lift through that this could be interesting. even if were not getting a big amount of snow, I will still be happy with a few inches and big flakes. What are you thinking around there? At this point I'm figuring something like 2-4" for much of northern IL except maybe 3-5" near the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Ya I'll pass on this, it shafts the entire northern half of the low track. +100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 HPC still going with GFS/Euro http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html Just looking at the radar, i still think the NAM might have this right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 What are you thinking around there? At this point I'm figuring something like 2-4" for much of northern IL except maybe 3-5" near the lake. Im with you on the 2-4" here with better amounts near the lake due to some enhancement then possibly some lake banding. the euro has the least qpf at .14" but NAM/GFS both over .20". with good ratios I like that call for out here. you never know though with decent lift through a 250mb deep DGZ. wouldnt be surprised if this overperformed in some spots. I just want some quarter size flakes lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 blue is 2-4", pink is 4-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 highest totals I have seen coming out of NE are 7" and 8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 highest totals I have seen coming out of NE are 7" and 8" 0837 PM SNOW GOTHENBURG 40.93N 100.16W 01/09/2011 E12.0 INCH DAWSON NE TRAINED SPOTTER FROM GOTHENBURG TO COZAD ON HWY 30...ESTIMATED 12 INCHES OF STORM TOTAL SNOW FALL..INCLUDING 8 INCHES OF NEW SNOWFALL SINCE 4 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 0837 PM SNOW GOTHENBURG 40.93N 100.16W 01/09/2011 E12.0 INCH DAWSON NE TRAINED SPOTTER FROM GOTHENBURG TO COZAD ON HWY 30...ESTIMATED 12 INCHES OF STORM TOTAL SNOW FALL..INCLUDING 8 INCHES OF NEW SNOWFALL SINCE 4 AM. Could be overachieving already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 06Z run of the NAM looks like it might be strengthening the 500 MB low earlier this run might help out those North and West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 IND calling for 3-6" and will issue WWA It seems dry air will again be a problem here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 IND calling for 3-6" and will issue WWA It seems dry air will again be a problem here Shouldnt be a huge problem, with it being so cold your bound to have a very dry low level there isnt away around that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 IND calling for 3-6" and will issue WWA It seems dry air will again be a problem here So they increased a bit. Really anxious to see what ILN does now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 so far amounts have been minimal here (As expected) just waiting on the heavier bands to get here from the west and southwest . Im gonna go measure real quick . 3.50 inches on the snowboard (looks like a 12:1 ratio so far, even with temp at 20) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 ILN going with 3-5inches with locally 6 in spots and a WWA for most with a small area of WSW in the northern part of the lower criteria area. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/displayprod.php?product=CLEAFDILN&versions=36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 06Z run of the NAM looks like it might be strengthening the 500 MB low earlier this run might help out those North and West. 6z models holding firm, GFS showing 0.17" at DTW with NAM 0.36". DTX says 2-3" for much of metro Detroit with 4"+ possible far east/southeast, which would be mby. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL SLIDE EAST ON TUESDAY AS A JET STEAK ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT SWINGS THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS WITH A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER OHIO BY 00Z WED. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION WILL ALSO DEEPEN ON TUESDAY AS IT CURLS UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS TOWARDS CLEVELAND. THE GFS/ECMWF/REG GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THIS FEATURE WHILE THE NAM IS A STRONG OUTLIER. ALTHOUGH A SLIGHTLY DEEPER SOLUTION IS A POSSIBILITY...THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE NAM IS THAT IT SEEMS TOO SLOW IN SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST. WILL LEAN THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE GFS...ALTHOUGH TEMPER QPF DOWN A TOUCH ACROSS THE NORTH THINKING THAT THE GFS IS TOO BROAD WITH THE QPF FIELDS. SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN BORDER COUNTIES BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...OVERSPREADING ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY EVENING. A WEDGE OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR OUT OF THE EAST WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME BEFORE THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE 280-290K LAYER CAN BE EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SNOW. CURRENT TIMING STILL SUGGESTS THE METRO DETROIT AREA WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL BY THE EVENING COMMUTE WHILE SNOW MAY NOT START IN FLINT UNTIL MIDWAY THROUGH RUSH HOUR. SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE IN THE 1-2 G/KG RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FOCUSED FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER...THROUGH METRO DETROIT...TOWARDS PORT HURON. SNOWFALL IN THIS AREA SHOULD BE IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE...TAPERING DOWN TO AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY SNEAK UP TO 4+ INCHES IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ERIE AND THE DETROIT RIVER. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST AS THE DEFORMATION AXIS PIVOTS OVERHEAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 6z models holding firm, GFS showing 0.17" at DTW with NAM 0.36". DTX says 2-3" for much of metro Detroit with 4"+ possible far east/southeast, which would be mby. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL SLIDE EAST ON TUESDAY AS A JET STEAK ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT SWINGS THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS WITH A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER OHIO BY 00Z WED. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION WILL ALSO DEEPEN ON TUESDAY AS IT CURLS UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS TOWARDS CLEVELAND. THE GFS/ECMWF/REG GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THIS FEATURE WHILE THE NAM IS A STRONG OUTLIER. ALTHOUGH A SLIGHTLY DEEPER SOLUTION IS A POSSIBILITY...THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE NAM IS THAT IT SEEMS TOO SLOW IN SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST. WILL LEAN THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE GFS...ALTHOUGH TEMPER QPF DOWN A TOUCH ACROSS THE NORTH THINKING THAT THE GFS IS TOO BROAD WITH THE QPF FIELDS. SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN BORDER COUNTIES BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...OVERSPREADING ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY EVENING. A WEDGE OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR OUT OF THE EAST WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME BEFORE THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE 280-290K LAYER CAN BE EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SNOW. CURRENT TIMING STILL SUGGESTS THE METRO DETROIT AREA WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL BY THE EVENING COMMUTE WHILE SNOW MAY NOT START IN FLINT UNTIL MIDWAY THROUGH RUSH HOUR. SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE IN THE 1-2 G/KG RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FOCUSED FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER...THROUGH METRO DETROIT...TOWARDS PORT HURON. SNOWFALL IN THIS AREA SHOULD BE IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE...TAPERING DOWN TO AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY SNEAK UP TO 4+ INCHES IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ERIE AND THE DETROIT RIVER. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST AS THE DEFORMATION AXIS PIVOTS OVERHEAD. The thing is if the NAM is right they are going to be low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The thing is if the NAM is right they are going to be low. Oh yeah I know! That is their forecast while considering the nam an outlier. If the consistent nam verifies, they will definitely be too low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.