JayPSU Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Then you have this On 1/11/2011 at 2:13 AM, JayPSU said: This says I-70 in Ohio is the jackpot area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 check out the next frame of sim radar....it's like the precip moved due north from 18 to 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 2:14 AM, JayPSU said: Then you have this yea, that is weird. If you look at that 700rh map and guessed where the qpf would be the heaviest on the next map you would think it would be the southeast 2/3rds of the state....and instead its the nw half. I'll take the track of the 850 and 7h low and run with those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 2:15 AM, buckeye said: check out the next frame of sim radar....it's like the precip moved due north from 18 to 24 Yep, it's going west to east then suddenly jumps north. Meanwhile on the 700mb map it continues on to the east. Not sure I understand that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 2:18 AM, buckeye said: yea, that is weird. If you look at that 700rh map and guessed where the qpf would be the heaviest on the next map you would think it would be the southeast 2/3rds of the state....and instead its the nw half. I'll take the track of the 850 and 7h low and run with those. Yep, if anything NW Ohio should be the area of lighter snow going by the 700mb Omegas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 2:18 AM, buckeye said: yea, that is weird. Not only does the accum seem not to match the precip maps but the 700rh heaviest omegas are also not matching up. I'll take the track of the 850 and 7h low and run with those. The 700mb low tracks to Sandusky/Cleveland zone and thus why the precip shifts north. Which matches this pretty good. Typically the best precip is near and just north and west/nw of that feature. per this run i would say LAF to Sandusky/Cleveland is the bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 2:20 AM, JayPSU said: Yep, it's going west to east then suddenly jumps north. Meanwhile on the 700mb map it continues on to the east. Not sure I understand that. the 700 is perfectly centered over ohio at 24 hrs....the 850 is closer to cleveland. Maybe that's why....i don't know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 2:22 AM, Harry said: The 700mb low tracks to Sandusky/Cleveland zone and thus why the precip shifts north. Which matches this pretty good. Typically the best precip is near and just north and west/nw of that feature. per this run i would say LAF to Sandusky/Cleveland is the bullseye. Harry, do you know why the heaviest omegas aren't lining up with the heaviest precip? (check out the 700mb map for 18hrs jay posted above)....looks like a best omegas are central southern ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 2:26 AM, buckeye said: Harry, do you know why the heaviest omegas aren't lining up with the heaviest precip? (check out the 700mb map for 18hrs jay posted above)....looks like a best omegas are central southern ohio Could the east wind be killing you guys in the lower levels? Thus eating away at your precip/snow. Usually a murder on systems there i know from past experience. I admit though it would be amazing to see a model pick up on that at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Well we were sorta/kinda screwed this run (barely 0.25"), but it looks much better for the Ohio folks with 0.40"+... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 2:31 AM, Harry said: Could the east wind be killing you guys in the lower levels? Thus eating away at your precip/snow. Usually a murder on systems there i know from past experience. I admit though it would be amazing to see a model pick up on that at this point. hmmm....i guess its possible. Could occur as the low starts transferring. may very well have to do with the transfer....looks like Pitt gets screwed as the precip lightens dramatically east of ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 2:22 AM, Harry said: The 700mb low tracks to Sandusky/Cleveland zone and thus why the precip shifts north. Which matches this pretty good. Typically the best precip is near and just north and west/nw of that feature. per this run i would say LAF to Sandusky/Cleveland is the bullseye. NAM has been pretty consistent with a decent hit for Cleveland. Still has a spec of 0.5" over the metro area. I'm not sure I'm buying it yet. These events seem to be a typical 3" front end snow that's fast moving and not much else after it pivots through. We'll see I guess, but the lake is frozen from CLE and points and west. Not sure how the models are factoring that in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 2:32 AM, Powerball said: Well we were sorta/kinda screwed this run (barely 0.25"), but it looks much better for the Ohio folks with 0.40"+... The eastern half of MI from the thumb down is still in 0.25"+, so who knows exactly what the qpf numbers are just yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 We are looking at possibly tripling or quadrupling our winter synoptic snowfall total tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 thru 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 2:37 AM, michsnowfreak said: The eastern half of MI from the thumb down is still in 0.25"+, so who knows exactly what the qpf numbers are just yet... Yeah am real curious to see what Bufkit shows on 00z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 2:32 AM, buckeye said: hmmm....i guess its possible. Could occur as the low starts transferring. may very well have to do with the transfer....looks like Pitt gets screwed as the precip lightens dramatically east of ohio Plus note where the surface low goes. I know typically you guys want it to track along the river and WV/OH line and or se of Columbus. By the *looks* of it the surface low goes almost ( if not ) directly over Columbus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 2:37 AM, michsnowfreak said: The eastern half of MI from the thumb down is still in 0.25"+, so who knows exactly what the qpf numbers are just yet... It's definitely an interesting way it's structured in Michigan, that's for sure... http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 850mb temps are -10 or lower for the western half of Ohio for most if not all of the storm. That would be some high ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 2:42 AM, Powerball said: It's definitely an interesting way it's structured in Michigan, that's for sure... http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false Think this is because of a WCB connection related to the two SFC-700 and possible a little lake enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 2:41 AM, Harry said: Plus note where the surface low goes. I know typically you guys want it to track along the river and WV/OH line and or se of Columbus. By the *looks* of it the surface low goes almost ( if not ) directly over Columbus. In general thats true, although this is a fairly weak low pretty closely aligned with the 850 and 700 lows so sometimes in those cases it's just as beneficial to be along the track. Actually i'm not sure why i'm nit picking this. Looks like we're talking about a massive region-wide snow ranging from 3-6".....lollipops, jackpots, and screw holes are anyone's guess at this point...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 2:37 AM, michsnowfreak said: The eastern half of MI from the thumb down is still in 0.25"+, so who knows exactly what the qpf numbers are just yet... Another thing to consider is upstream in Iowa they are getting amounts higher than what you would expect using say an 18:1 ratio based of of the forecasted QPF. considering the 850 lows (both of them) strengthen before all energy translates to the east coast we all may get an inch or two about what doubling the QPF would suggest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I am not going to be on tonight because I am moving but will be with storm updates during the day on Tuesday while at work LOL Here is the breakdown: 3-5 for Cincinnati Metro by Wednesday-Hamilton,Clermont,northern KY included in this zone 4-6 for Northern burbs and southern burbs on Dayton. Butler, Clinton, Warren, Greene, Montgomery, Fayette Counties 5-7 for Dayton northward near I 70 I am BW's right now watching the game!lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 2:42 AM, Powerball said: It's definitely an interesting way it's structured in Michigan, that's for sure... http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false Yeah, verbatum it still shows 0.3"+ qpf for Detroit downriver, then 0.25-0.30" just west of that, so really such a minor detail at this point is not really important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 3:02 AM, michsnowfreak said: Yeah, verbatum it still shows 0.3"+ qpf for Detroit downriver, then 0.25-0.30" just west of that, so really such a minor detail at this point is not really important. It'll probably correct itself, but it's just funny to look at and think about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 3:05 AM, Powerball said: It'll probably correct itself, but it's just funny to look at and think about. Lets see what the other 00 models show... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Overall i like the trends despite the QPF. Always good to have a strengthening system approaching you vs weakening. This puppy is strengthening especially in the upper levels as it approaches and passes through here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Quick question for those familiar with BUFKIT.... I've got the newest version, which features a number in parentheses when adding up the snowfall. Does anybody know what the figure is supposed to represent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Already .04" liquid at MSN, must be accumulating pretty well with such low temps. Hard to believe this event is gonna last till Wednesday morning, makes me sad I'm missing it! Gonna make for a sweet snowpack when I get back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Quote from ILN for Columbus, OH:...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT... THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE DAY AND THEN TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE TO 3 TO 6 INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION BEFORE ENDING. Not warning criteria? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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