The_Global_Warmer Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 still looking good. ratios of 15/20-1 will give this area 4-5 inches. going to be nice to have snow pack again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 2:46 AM, hawkeye_wx said: NAM looking good for the Ohio Valley to eastern Lakes, but good grief, look at that big crater over east-central Iowa. Love the detail of the TD maps. Gotta remember to use them over NCEP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 2:47 AM, snowstormcanuck said: Yeah, probably decent ratios too although those'll be mitigated by a feed of dry air on the north side of the pcpn shield. Still a 2-4" event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NAM has about .25 qpf here, with 15-20:1 ratios that could yield 3-4 inches pretty easily. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 2:47 AM, Stebo48858 said: 12/08/05 for DTX's area in case people were wondering, decent share the wealth system I enjoy systems that feature the highest accumulations SE of Port Huron to Adrian...we can at least be closer to the top of the leaderboard instead of the mini-snow hole as this map shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Per the nam looks like a solid .3-.45 at a conservative 15:1 would be in the 4-7" range. Looking like a real solid advisory type event up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Pretty much everyone who normally gets screwed is getting snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 2:51 AM, Stebo48858 said: Per the nam looks like a solid .3-.45 at a conservative 15:1 would be in the 4-7" range. Looking like a real solid advisory type event up this way. Until I see the GFS after the 18Z run...I'm being extra cautious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 OT for this topic, but I would urge you to check out this stream... Chaser on the west side of ATL. http://stormscapelive.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 2:50 AM, toronto blizzard said: Still a 2-4" event? 4" is gonna be tough, although you have a better chance than I do (notice that tight gradient on that map between Toronto and Hamilton). I'd say maybe a smidged more than 2" is closer to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioValleyWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 2:47 AM, buckeye said: well i like the trend of a slightly stronger 5h low and 850 low as they move across IN and OH.....the precip details will take care of themselves. In an ideal world for mby, I'd like to see everything a smidge south, so hopefully a little more 5h digging in future runs. btw i've always figured here in cmh that 3-5 is mod, 5+ is heavy. The reality is 5+ events are relatively rare here. True it is tough to get 5+ in our region. I am the same in Dayton. A little weaker out west to allow for a subtle SE pivot at H5 then time for a slightly more NNE dig over C KY would help CVG DAY and CMH a bit. I do agree fully with precip details aligning. I still feel precip is off .05 to .10. Not an enormous deal but add another inch potential could well play out on 12 and 00Z runs tomorrow as it gets into nowcast range. Josh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 2:52 AM, kab2791 said: Until I see the GFS after the 18Z run...I'm being extra cautious. GFS is a fail on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 2:52 AM, Frivolousz21 said: Pretty much everyone who normally gets screwed is getting snow. Not quite. With the exception of yesterday, I've been getting screwed this winter and it looks like I'm going to miss out again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 IWX currently thinking 4-7 inches of system snow particularly in southern parts of CWA for Tues., then possibly heavy LES in favored regions as the storm moves away and flow returns to the nw for Wed. AN UPR END 12-18 HR SNOW ADVSRY/POTNLY 4-7 INCHES/SPCLY SRN HALF CWA...BARRING SHIFT IN MODEL TRENDS. ONSET DURING TUE AM COMMUTE TO LKLY HGTN IMPACT OF EVENT. OTHERWISE SPEED OF CAROLINA COASTAL LOW DEEPENING AS 70-80 KT MIDLVL JET SWINGS THROUGH NRN GULF STATES TO SC BY TUE EVENING...TO IMPACT AND PRECLUDE A WELL DEEPENED WRN SFC LOW TRACK FM TN VLY INTO NCNTL OH...FURTHER MITIGATING DVLPMNT OF ISENT TROWAL/WELL BACKED FLOW WITHIN WCB...AGAIN POINTING TO ADV TYPE EVENT. MOD LK EFFECT IN WAKE OF SYSTEM WITH MID TEENS SFC-8H DELTA T/LONG AXIS FETCH WITH LK SUPR CONNECTIVITY...HAVE UPPED POPS TUE NIGHT INTO WED IN FAVORED RGN. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE FRI/SAT WITH PRIMARY EMPHASIS ON WEAK CANADIAN CLIPPER PASSING TO NORTH WITH LOW AMPLITUDE GRTLKS TROF WITH POTNL SECONDARY TROF ROTATING THRU ON SUN FOR CONTD LGHT SNOW CHCS OVERLAID WITH LAKE ENHANCED CHCS.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 3:05 AM, Ottawa Blizzard said: Not quite. With the exception of yesterday, I've been getting screwed this winter and it looks like I'm going to miss out again. How much do you have on the season OB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 2:51 AM, Stebo48858 said: Per the nam looks like a solid .3-.45 at a conservative 15:1 would be in the 4-7" range. Looking like a real solid advisory type event up this way. NICE...best run yet. Has me in 0.40-0.50". Easily advisory criteria if it pans out, and if ratios are good possibly warning here. But its just the first of the 00z models, lets see what the others bring. Nevertheless, looking EXTREMELY likely this is our 2nd largest snowstorm of the season. #1 is 6.3" so that'll be tough to beat but #2 is 2.2", and that was mostly LES lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 2:47 AM, Stebo48858 said: 12/08/05 for DTX's area in case people were wondering, decent share the wealth system That storm came in fast and furious. Ended up with 6.8" imby which was the biggest storm of the 2005-06 season. DTW had 6.2", which tied with a storm a week later, Dec 14/15, for largest of the season (I had 5.9" imby on Dec 14/15). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 3:07 AM, Indystorm said: IWX currently thinking 4-7 inches of system snow particularly in southern parts of CWA for Tues., then possibly heavy LES in favored regions as the storm moves away and flow returns to the nw for Wed. AN UPR END 12-18 HR SNOW ADVSRY/POTNLY 4-7 INCHES/SPCLY SRN HALF CWA...BARRING SHIFT IN MODEL TRENDS. ONSET DURING TUE AM COMMUTE TO LKLY HGTN IMPACT OF EVENT. OTHERWISE SPEED OF CAROLINA COASTAL LOW DEEPENING AS 70-80 KT MIDLVL JET SWINGS THROUGH NRN GULF STATES TO SC BY TUE EVENING...TO IMPACT AND PRECLUDE A WELL DEEPENED WRN SFC LOW TRACK FM TN VLY INTO NCNTL OH...FURTHER MITIGATING DVLPMNT OF ISENT TROWAL/WELL BACKED FLOW WITHIN WCB...AGAIN POINTING TO ADV TYPE EVENT. MOD LK EFFECT IN WAKE OF SYSTEM WITH MID TEENS SFC-8H DELTA T/LONG AXIS FETCH WITH LK SUPR CONNECTIVITY...HAVE UPPED POPS TUE NIGHT INTO WED IN FAVORED RGN. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE FRI/SAT WITH PRIMARY EMPHASIS ON WEAK CANADIAN CLIPPER PASSING TO NORTH WITH LOW AMPLITUDE GRTLKS TROF WITH POTNL SECONDARY TROF ROTATING THRU ON SUN FOR CONTD LGHT SNOW CHCS OVERLAID WITH LAKE ENHANCED CHCS.&& I've been liking the 4-7" range locally, though I think the upper end could be a reach and IWX spells out why widespread warning criteria amounts will be tough to come by. Still, there's reason to be optimistic with favorable factors lining up for good snow ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 3:12 AM, michsnowfreak said: NICE...best run yet. Has me in 0.40-0.50". Easily advisory criteria if it pans out, and if ratios are good possibly warning here. But its just the first of the 00z models, lets see what the others bring. Nevertheless, looking EXTREMELY likely this is our 2nd largest snowstorm of the season. #1 is 6.3" so that'll be tough to beat but #2 is 2.2", and that was mostly LES lol You probably won't make up much ground on LAF though. Odds are you'll end up winning, but maybe we can hold you off into February... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 My forecast (granted it is graphically heavy, but it still gets the point across) - just noticed it doesn't extend quite far enough into Southeastern Michigan, but I don't normally put as much detail into the edges since it outside the area I forecast for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 DET BUFKIT for 00Z NAM: 5.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 3:20 AM, TheWeatherPimp said: My forecast (granted it is graphically heavy, but it still gets the point across) I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 2:51 AM, Stebo48858 said: Per the nam looks like a solid .3-.45 at a conservative 15:1 would be in the 4-7" range. Looking like a real solid advisory type event up this way. MesoNAM only shows a .22-.25 total for SE Mich and 12z NAM shows same....where are you getting the totals from? Maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 3:25 AM, patrick7032 said: MesoNAM only shows a .22-.25 total for SE Mich and 12z NAM shows same....where are you getting the totals from? Maps? Wait, now I'm confused...we're all looking at the NAM on the NCEP web site http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false Also: http://www.nco.ncep....am_p60_072l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 3:17 AM, Hoosier said: I've been liking the 4-7" range locally, though I think the upper end could be a reach and IWX spells out why widespread warning criteria amounts will be tough to come by. Still, there's reason to be optimistic with favorable factors lining up for good snow ratios. 4-7 seems like a great call for there. The one thing lost in all of this is the rising NAO/Block leaving which typically if history has a say the models are usually slow to respond to. Been a good while since we seen it ( thanks to all the blocking the past 2 winters ) but that is usually when we see/use to see the north/nw trend with systems. Heights end up higher in the east and thus the storm track gets shifted n/nw as we close in. This could be one of them. Unsure if the model updates have done anything for that as there is nothing to really go on. Guess we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 3:22 AM, kab2791 said: DET BUFKIT for 00Z NAM: 5.8" What page are you loading from? I just loaded Bufkit for the area and it still shows 18z as the data set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 SSC Can I ask a favour of you to post the ooz NAM bufkit data for YYZ. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 My call is 3-5 inches for the screw zone (Kokomo) but I expect to be near or above five inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 3:28 AM, patrick7032 said: What page are you loading from? I just loaded Bufkit for the area and it still shows 18z as the data set. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On 1/10/2011 at 3:25 AM, patrick7032 said: MesoNAM only shows a .22-.25 total for SE Mich and 12z NAM shows same....where are you getting the totals from? Maps? 0.40" http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_KDTW.txt 0.33" through 60 hours. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM212/NAM212_KDTW.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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