Harry Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Given this a try and see how it goes! Continue the discussion here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Thank you Harry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I will just offer up my 2 cents then we can get back to the rest of the storm. I seriously doubt Dilly was 5 PPD because he was upset about storm totals. I think it was because he both mentioned he was angry and that he was drunk. The combo of the two usually doesn't end well, and I think Hoosier perhaps went with a 5 PPD to make sure Dilly didn't get too upset and go overboard. It has nothing to do with Ohio posters--and I am sure the 5 PPD is a temporary thing for the reasons I mentioned and not a bias against Ohio folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I will just offer up my 2 cents then we can get back to the rest of the storm. I seriously doubt Dilly was 5 PPD because he was upset about storm totals. I think it was because he both mentioned he was angry and that he was drunk. The combo of the two usually doesn't end well, and I think Hoosier perhaps went with a 5 PPD to make sure Dilly didn't get too upset and go overboard. It has nothing to do with Ohio posters--and I am sure the 5 PPD is a temporary thing for the reasons I mentioned and not a bias against Ohio folks. This +100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 I will just offer up my 2 cents then we can get back to the rest of the storm. I seriously doubt Dilly was 5 PPD because he was upset about storm totals. I think it was because he both mentioned he was angry and that he was drunk. The combo of the two usually doesn't end well, and I think Hoosier perhaps went with a 5 PPD to make sure Dilly didn't get too upset and go overboard. It has nothing to do with Ohio posters--and I am sure the 5 PPD is a temporary thing for the reasons I mentioned and not a bias against Ohio folks. +1 That is my hunch too. Anyways.. Euro ensembles should be running shortly! Anyone plan to stay up for them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 ill be up for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 +1 That is my hunch too. Anyways.. Euro ensembles should be running shortly! Anyone plan to stay up for them? You are staying up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 +1 That is my hunch too. Anyways.. Euro ensembles should be running shortly! Anyone plan to stay up for them? I will be up anyways. I am more interested in seeing if the ECM ensembles suggest the west coast trough phases that weak migratory low for the next storm. ECM lost it this round, so did the GFS--although I don't expect them to get that right this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I am up late playing Xbox connect and the smoke is in the air. So...please post the euro ensemble data so we can see it tonight. Also what time do they come out? and what do the GEM ensembles say and is the 03z SREF out and what does it say. I bet its even more north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Im more interested if they have more qpf for my area to more in line with the nam and gfs (even gfs ensembles mean line up better with nam) 03z sref is not out last i checked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I will be up anyways. I am more interested in seeing if the ECM ensembles suggest the west coast trough phases that weak migratory low for the next storm. ECM lost it this round, so did the GFS--although I don't expect them to get that right this far out. Baro no offense but are you a robot? lol I swear you are on all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoeWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I will be up anyways. I am more interested in seeing if the ECM ensembles suggest the west coast trough phases that weak migratory low for the next storm. ECM lost it this round, so did the GFS--although I don't expect them to get that right this far out. Good call on the amplification of the trough on the Euro! I totally missed the whole neutral/ positive NAO aspect. Learn something new every day - or reminded at least Thanks, you're a great asset to the forums and very knowledgeable. Look forward to future correspondence! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 baro is like me, when there is a storm system that may impact their area or a large area of the country, we get the adrenaline going and makes it hard to sleep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Baro no offense but are you a robot? lol I swear you are on all day. Haha, well when I am not out I am always on a computer. Heck even when I go on vacation I am sitting there looking at weather information on my phone. Pretty pathetic I know. We are in such a computer age that sometimes we rely on it too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Haha, well when I am not out I am always on a computer. Heck even when I go on vacation I am sitting there looking at weather information on my phone. Pretty pathetic I know. We are in such a computer age that sometimes we rely on it too much. Nah its not pathetic it was more of a joke that you are a robot who loves weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 baro is like me, when there is a storm system that may impact their area or a large area of the country, we get the adrenaline going and makes it hard to sleep Plus I just love tracking and forecasting weather--hence why I lurk everywhere including our own regional forums. Big storms definitely get the juices flowing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Good call on the amplification of the trough on the Euro! I totally missed the whole neutral/ positive NAO aspect. Learn something new every day - or reminded at least Thanks, you're a great asset to the forums and very knowledgeable. Look forward to future correspondence! Well I was wrong at first, haha. 5-7 days out I thought this storm threat would get the wrong end of the -NAO before it went neutral/positive. We all learn though--I will definitely keep this event in the back of my mind for the next time this setup develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 You are staying up? Yep.. I will be up anyways. I am more interested in seeing if the ECM ensembles suggest the west coast trough phases that weak migratory low for the next storm. ECM lost it this round, so did the GFS--although I don't expect them to get that right this far out. Yeah that did seem a bit odd how they sorta lost it. baro is like me, when there is a storm system that may impact their area or a large area of the country, we get the adrenaline going and makes it hard to sleep Can add me to that list. For the 03z SREF.. Just started. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/sref/03/model_s.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 wow the 03z sref updated quick once it got past hr6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoeWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Well I was wrong at first, haha. 5-7 days out I thought this storm threat would get the wrong end of the -NAO before it went neutral/positive. We all learn though--I will definitely keep this event in the back of my mind for the next time this setup develops. Yes, a lot of people totally busted that one. I'm not sure many can honestly say they called this event or the cold spell outside of at least a smudge of wishcasting in there. All evidence was point toward a warm up and a Moderate La Nina was icing on the cake - but Congratulations to them regardless - Good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 06Z NAM IS BEAUTIFUL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 06Z NAM IS BEAUTIFUL. as long as it didnt have the initalization errors like the 00z nam which was thrown out through hr 60 ( i live in or near the donut hole) but am not worried about it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 6z NAM looks like it went back south a bit and maybe a tad wetter imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 as long as it didnt have the initalization errors like the 00z nam which was thrown out 00z euro ensembles still have you in the .50 to .75 total qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 awesome, thanks harry, i was about to ask what happend to the ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 00z euro ensembles still have you in the .50 to .75 total qpf. What does it have for the Dayton area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 What does it have for the Dayton area? .25 to .50 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Updated Indy AFD saying several inches possible and headlines likely needed in later updates. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=IND&issuedby=IND&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 st. louis edged towards a bigger system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Updated ILN AFD basically using I-71 to divide between 2-4 north and 1-3 south. Think that could be a bit conservative imo although they said we could reach warning criteria. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/displayprod.php?product=CLEAFDILN&versions=36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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