Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,608
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Vesuvius
    Newest Member
    Vesuvius
    Joined

DT's First Guess


Recommended Posts

I thought his first guess on the Norlun had a lot of positives to it....anyways:

mid1g.jpg

1STGNE.jpg

I am clearly going with the last few runs of the euro and euro ensembles which have really been on a steady TREND of showing a BIGGER Low as we get closer to the event and with MORE precip. I do not know what to do with the GGEM ( canadian) and GFS models since every other run those models flip flop. In addition the GFS ensembles are clearly showing BIGGER low with more precip than the operational runs and looks more like the European model .

Per : www.wxrisk.com

The models did look good one run, then trended too far east then back west again and so on. But I think the SREF was the first to put out sort of a double surface low merging into a single stronger one (I could be wrong) and since then most of the models have caught on and have a similar situation occuring....... Either way it will be interesting...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I might be a little more conservative for DCA-PHL because these Miller B transfers often involve a significant dryslot for the Mid-Atlantic, and temperatures aren't particularly cold down there so you're not going to see very high ratios if it does manage to remain all snow.

This looks increasingly like a NYC-BOS storm with snowfall generally increasing as you move to the northeast, which is essentially climatology for this type of event since we're not dealing with the original Gulf Low but rather the low being reinvigorated by the northern stream and developing a separate Miller B Nor'easter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I might be a little more conservative for DCA-PHL because these Miller B transfers often involve a significant dryslot for the Mid-Atlantic, and temperatures aren't particularly cold down there so you're not going to see very high ratios if it does manage to remain all snow.

Philly has generally made out pretty well in Miller B's in the past decade. Usually take 30-50% of what NYC gets. But when NYC gets 20+ inches, that's not too bad. It's the suburbs to the west of PHL that seem to get cut out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nice to be in the G spot :arrowhead:

:devilsmiley::thumbsup:

I doubt he planned it that way, but it is funny.

Philly has generally made out pretty well in Miller B's in the past decade. Usually take 30-50% of what NYC gets. But when NYC gets 20+ inches, that's not too bad. It's the suburbs to the west of PHL that seem to get cut out.

Yes, and up the Susquehanna and Schuylkill River Valleys as well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Southeastern disco just buzzing tonight with heavy snow reported in GA. I am getting the feeling that this is just a hair more snow than was modeled.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/8033-january-9-10-winter-storm-obs-thread/page__st__620

Naaaaaaah..............................The area of snow will weaken overnight thru Monday.

I'll still get my customary half inch of snow with this Miller B.

No sense at all getting my hopes up. None at all.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...