NEGa Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The main thread has suddenly become silent. One post in the last 12 minutes. probably not much to analyze right now, and we are in between models...it will pick up in a little while. although i am not sure how much looking at models is worth, other than a couple of short range, at this point (esp upstate west) since the storm is less than 10 hours away its almost time to nowcast and shift to the obs thread! :snowman: hopefully the mods will be a little gentle with warnings, at least. i dont care if i post in teh wrong thread and its deleted, i just dont want a warning. my fear is in the excitement of the moment, i may accidently make a banter post in the model thread for most of this this is a doozy - but far north ga, south tn, through the upstate and s nc it could be the biggest snow producer for a lot of us in double-digit years. Was hoping to just get snow and sleet, hope this changes! Do like the amounts though! nice forecast! i would love to stay snow, but honestly almost all the storms i recall here ended with sleet, frzn rain or frz drizzle, so i would not be surprised, and i am not concerned about that (unless it changes at 6 AM ) besides, a nice glaze at the end can seal in the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The higher qpf might be a recent trend, but Fish cautioned the moisture is usually overdone on the models. I say it is going to be one big Fail in the triangle/triad and points north and east. Still, Robert's bird-dogged this storm pretty well so far and his forecasting has merit here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennyForYourThoughts Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Thought I'd let you guys know we had a little 10 minute bout with sleet here along the gulf coast of Florida, I watched it bounce off the railings on my deck. Just thought it might be of some value for you guys to the north to know we had sleet that far south. Good luck everybody...stay safe and enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Brick, do you remember that post where I told you how to do things so you wouldn't post things like this? RAH is being conservative. The higher QPF is a recent trend in the last 12 hours or so. So, why be conservative now when they had a Watch out yesterday? It is funny that they downgrade to an advisory when the models actually start to trend wetter for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Interesting. Sleet in FL. I think that's the 2nd time its happened this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 So, why be conservative now when they had a Watch out yesterday? It is funny that they downgrade to an advisory when the models actually start to trend wetter for us. You do realize that RAH does not actually control the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sluggo Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 And Raleigh's... Robert now has both of us in the 3-6" area, though, so we'll see. Who's your money on for this one? Robert or The Fish?? Just curious/:popcorn: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 You do realize that RAH does not actually control the weather. I'm just trying to figure out how they are thinking with this. It seems to me the models trending wetter would warrent the Watch instead of an advisory, not the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm just trying to figure out how they are thinking with this. It seems to me the models trending wetter would warrent the Watch instead of an advisory, not the other way around. Brick, that downgrade is only visible to you. NOAA is out to get you so they took your IP address and make sure you get their own special warnings & forecasts made just for you while everyone else sees the real stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm just trying to figure out how they are thinking with this. It seems to me the models trending wetter would warrent the Watch instead of an advisory, not the other way around. Try to think all the way back to yesteryear.... the date was January 7th, 2011. RAH issued a WWA for the Triangle only to be horrifically wrong, and therefore canceling it in the dark of night. Maybe they prefer to be conservative at this juncture and see if the recent trends in the models actually seem to be panning out with successive model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The higher qpf might be a recent trend, but Fish cautioned the moisture is usually overdone on the models. I say it is going to be one big Fail in the triangle/triad and points north and east. Still, Robert's bird-dogged this storm pretty well so far and his forecasting has merit here. I expect this to come futher NE for you guys by 12 z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I got my snow boots ready. I'll take plenty of pictures for Brick...especially if I get out of work for it. Enjoy your full day of work Monday Brick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Would be killer if those heavy amounts on the upstate would shift NE about 40 miles I expect this to come futher NE for you guys by 12 z. So what screws it up for this area?? I got my snow boots ready. I'll take plenty of pictures for Brick...especially if I get out of work for it. Enjoy your full day of work Monday Brick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I expect this to come futher NE for you guys by 12 z. These maps seem like they are accounting IP/ZR as snowfall. I don't see that much snow even close to Richland county happening. I mean, just before it was 2.5 inches. Now around 7-8? Right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyes2theskies Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm just trying to figure out how they are thinking with this. It seems to me the models trending wetter would warrent the Watch instead of an advisory, not the other way around. I think their reasoning is before the models were trending wetter you were getting nothing. Now you might get something over all a good trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I guess whatever happens will happen, but this looks like a big fail for the Triangle now. Downgarded to an advisory and doesn't look like we will have the precip for this to be anything but a nuisance. I'd rather it not do anything at all if it isn't going to be anything but that. A winter weather advisory is not a downgrade from a winter storm watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Who's your money on for this one? Robert or The Fish?? Just curious/:popcorn: How much is the Fish forecasting? I'm still in High Point, NC at the moment, but went ahead and changed my location to Raleigh since I'm traveling tomorrow morning and will be in Raleigh for this storm. Robert's map looks pretty good to me, though. I expect this to come futher NE for you guys by 12 z. If it were to do that, then I'd be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sluggo Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The higher qpf might be a recent trend, but Fish cautioned the moisture is usually overdone on the models. I say it is going to be one big Fail in the triangle/triad and points north and east. Still, Robert's bird-dogged this storm pretty well so far and his forecasting has merit here. Agreed....wonder who has better feel for the SLP track, Robert or Greg?? All I know from history (>25yr in the Triangle) and limited climo tech knowledge, is, that when a cold winter H (placed in the Ohio Valley) easterly leads a southern SLP, tracking N NE towards Hatteras, we get significant frozen precip provided it is not too warm. Not knowing much, I called the 2000 storm to be easily ) 12" plus 48 hrs out.....I was handed two fifths of 12 yo scotch.......a couple buddies took me at my word and one saved money (not traveling), the other, made money on the event. (got lucky w/ that call) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperNET Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm just trying to figure out how they are thinking with this. It seems to me the models trending wetter would warrent the Watch instead of an advisory, not the other way around. Here is what they are thinking..... Read it here: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=RAH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 These maps seem like they are accounting IP/ZR as snowfall. I don't see that much snow even close to Richland county happening. I mean, just before it was 2.5 inches. Now around 7-8? Right... Correct. Not only are the models trending wetter, but colder. Not sure if the GFS can catch this at 18z , but definetly should latch on by 0z if it iniates properly. Its ensembles have been trending this way as well. You have a strong consensus building with the Nam, Can and all the short range, not to mention whats actually unfolding. Another 30-40 mile shift North and Id be in the 10+ on the nam. They are taking longer to break down the precip shield as it traverses west-east from TN across the smokies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I got my snow boots ready. I'll take plenty of pictures for Brick...especially if I get out of work for it. Enjoy your full day of work Monday Brick Tough crowd...kicking the man while he is down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I know the nam is trending wetter but it sucked for the Xmas storm, the ruc/GFS nailed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Tough crowd...kicking the man while he is down. Where is our board psychologist? He should be able to diagnose this...snow fever perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sluggo Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Correct. Not only are the models trending wetter, but colder. Not sure if the GFS can catch this at 18z , but definetly should latch on by 0z if it iniates properly. Its ensembles have been trending this way as well. You have a strong consensus building with the Nam, Can and all the short range, not to mention whats actually unfolding. Another 30-40 mile shift North and Id be in the 10+ on the nam. They are taking longer to break down the precip shield as it traverses west-east from TN across the smokies. The Ozarks have been getting hammered w/ sn now for a while. Not many QPF models called that 2 days ago....interesting. Seems the SLP is moving quicker than 4 hrs ago from radar loops/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Correct. Not only are the models trending wetter, but colder. Not sure if the GFS can catch this at 18z , but definetly should latch on by 0z if it iniates properly. Its ensembles have been trending this way as well. You have a strong consensus building with the Nam, Can and all the short range, not to mention whats actually unfolding. Another 30-40 mile shift North and Id be in the 10+ on the nam. They are taking longer to break down the precip shield as it traverses west-east from TN across the smokies. You and me both brother. I'm just not sure that the NAM might be overdoing this as it is. Bet that's what the pros would tell me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Where is our board psychologist? He should be able to diagnose this...snow fever perhaps? I could diagnosis it, but my post would be deleted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I think that NAM output is not taking into account for saturation perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I got my snow boots ready. I'll take plenty of pictures for Brick...especially if I get out of work for it. Enjoy your full day of work Monday Brick Now you just know since you said that a warm pocket of air will form over Charlotte and Wake Forest, NC will suddenly get 10" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I know the nam is trending wetter but it sucked for the Xmas storm, the ruc/GFS nailed it. I agree...I would much rather another model on my side other than the nam. Everytime the nam is showing the higher qpf amounts for me it never verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I agree...I would much rather another model on my side other than the nam. Everytime the nam is showing the higher qpf amounts it never verifies. Something is wrong with the NAM im telling you. I'm waiting for the new bufkit data for 18z. The NAM is even delaying precip too much and KCAE have even talked about it also. So if it's off on timing, especially compared to currents conditions, and the GFS is right... like current observations that could be a major difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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