QC_Halo Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 got friends in Jackson, but havent talked to them to see whats going on. Was just checking out the cams and thats the first accident i came across. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaPilot Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I was at FL 320 coming into ATL from the NE over the western part of the carolinas when i noticed the wind was a bit stronger. almost 160kts vice about 120 or so as forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 It doesn't get washed away...it just gets covered in ice The NAM has a "dryslot" over CAE on bufkit.. but somethings wrong somewhere.. there's moisture.. its just under the snow growth region from what i see.. the most of it at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I was at FL 320 coming into ATL from the NE over the western part of the carolinas when i noticed the wind was a bit stronger. almost 160kts vice about 120 or so as forecast. Thats actually very important for the intensification of our surface cyclone. A stronger jet while the upper level system is still under the favorable right entrance region of the jet means greater divergence, greater lift over the area, and a stronger surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm looking at the 06z nam precip type maps. They ain't making sense.. they are putting NC/N GA in ice but us in snow down here in CAE.. something is weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Hey mets... how much for Oriental, NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 pretty much every model in the last few runs has a precip minimum over NE SC coast and SE NC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm looking at the 06z nam precip type maps. They ain't making sense.. they are putting NC/N GA in ice but us in snow down here in CAE.. something is weird. wedging? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 wedging? I was thinking that.. but looking at 12Z gfs is a whole different beast on bufkit. I'm just gonna stop now and look out my window tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 wedging? Timing... daytime vs nighttime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sluggo Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Thats actually very important for the intensification of our surface cyclone. A stronger jet while the upper level system is still under the favorable right entrance region of the jet means greater divergence, greater lift over the area, and a stronger surface low. I just learnt a tad more.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bta0812 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 This system is extremely irritating to me. The good snow totals are like 100 miles away and I'm gonna get an inch and then probably .25" of ice. Ugh. Thats the way the cookie crumbles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sluggo Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 This system is extremely irritating to me. The good snow totals are like 100 miles away and I'm gonna get an inch and then probably .25" of ice. Ugh. Thats the way the cookie crumbles. Don't get too discouraged.....we had a good Xmas snow. Besides, I think we're gonna see more than 0.25" of ice plus, Robert and others are convinced the SFL with get a little stronger and gain more lift. In my years, I've seem SFL's come of land into the Atlantic around the Savannah, Charleston line and intesify....The Fish on WRAL has missed those 3 times since he's been at WRAL. Looks like this SFL may saturate our air better than forecast from what I've seen on the WV Sat loop and its leading fingers and movement. . We're still 24 hrs out. All that SFL has to do is crawl the coast a little better, but the wind directions make that slim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bta0812 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Don't get too discouraged.....we had a good Xmas snow. Besides, I think we're gonna see more than 0.25" of ice plus, Robert and others are convinced the SFL with get a little stronger and gain more lift. In my years, I've seem SFL's come of land into the Atlantic around the Savannah, Charleston line and intesify....The Fish on WRAL has missed those 3 times since he's been at WRAL. Looks like this SFL may saturate our air better than forecast from what I've seen on the WV Sat loop and its leading fingers and movement. . We're still 24 hrs out. All that SFL has to do is crawl the coast a little better, but the wind directions make that slim. Wells its fairly obvious we have the same rooting interests in this thing. I'm on the Franklin Co. side of Vance Co. so were close. Something needs to happen fast, or were gonna just get a dern mess. Yuck. And yeah, for Fishel to be such a snow lover, hes wrong a LOT. I am NOT comparing this to the 2000 storm, but at 6pm the night before he was talking about some 3-4". Woke up with 20". Looking back, I remember Bill Reh had it right, and was about the only one to around here. I feel like the qpfs are a little low, with a little shifting and a little luck with the freezing line theres an outside shot at 5" for us I think. Or I could still be dreaming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sluggo Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Wells its fairly obvious we have the same rooting interests in this thing. I'm on the Franklin Co. side of Vance Co. so were close. Something needs to happen fast, or were gonna just get a dern mess. Yuck. And yeah, for Fishel to be such a snow lover, hes wrong a LOT. I am NOT comparing this to the 2000 storm, but at 6pm the night before he was talking about some 3-4". Woke up with 20". Looking back, I remember Bill Reh had it right, and was about the only one to around here. I feel like the qpfs are a little low, with a little shifting and a little luck with the freezing line theres an outside shot at 5" for us I think. Or I could still be dreaming. Take a look at this GEM 12z precip run - just one of the may models. http://meteocentre.com/animate.php?lang=en&satdir=/models/gemreg_amer_12/&satname=gemregPR12&satext=gif&num=17&speed=10&title=GEM-REG%2012Z%20ANIM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Looking at radar, models flipping back and forth with total QPF, convection, all kinds of other stuff.. someone.. is gonna get screwed. The euro is locked onto this thing falling apart super fast and I'm not too far off from believing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 IMO if Fish is wrong on this storm it wouldn't be his fault. All the guidence out there is showing the exteme dry air and the moisture having problems getting into this area. I really don't think he can go against guidence and say this is what the models are showing but I think there wrong. Also I wouldn't count on the lp system to become stonger until off the NC/Va. coast. At that time it is a little to late for us. I really hate to be a downer but I really don't expect a lot of qpf for our area. But if we do get .5 qpf as some models have shown it could still be a mess. When you're talking about 2" of snow w/ ip and zr on top of that it would be messy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Monday morning will be a horrible one around the Lowcountry. Traffic is bad even without any weather. Wintry weather just makes it worse. This is the first storm on a weekday in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Monday morning will be a horrible one around the Lowcountry. Traffic is bad even without any weather. Wintry weather just makes it worse. This is the first storm on a weekday in a while. Jeez. You guys don't even have any hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sluggo Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 IMO if Fish is wrong on this storm it wouldn't be his fault. All the guidence out there is showing the exteme dry air and the moisture having problems getting into this area. I really don't think he can go against guidence and say this is what the models are showing but I think there wrong. Also I wouldn't count on the lp system to become stonger until off the NC/Va. coast. At that time it is a little to late for us. I really hate to be a downer but I really don't expect a lot of qpf for our area. But if we do get .5 qpf as some models have shown it could still be a mess. When you're talking about 2" of snow w/ ip and zr on top of that it would be messy. If we get the 2" sn, ip on top of that (.5 inch or so, then zr.....none of us but the fools will try to drive on that. 4wd w/ studded sn tires is about all I'd try to drive with on such a possibility. I'm wondering just how shallow the cold air is over us and just how dry it is & for what thicknesses (RH profile). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Well, the traffic in our area is bad. Our main interstate, 26, has accidents almost every morning. Lots of people commute from Summerville to Charleston. There will be many accidents tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Widre's optimism in the the storm thread is scary and uncomfortable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Still sticking with 6" here and hoping for double that, really liking the short range models today and the fact of the system already over performing in Texas....good signs hopefully! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Give me the NMM, please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Give me the NMM, please! Me too james and a side of NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yep. Looks like a run to the beer store is needed. DOwn to 3~~ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 This storm is a good example of why you don't want to be in the bullseye several days out. We went from historic 6"+ amounts here in the ATL metro to 2-4", and maybe very little in the southern burbs. I'll be more than happy with 2-4" and enough ice to shut things down for a day or two though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 If we don't get a decent snow out of this in the Triad, my bottle of 15-year-old Balvenie single malt will hopefully help minimize my feelings of Erfolgtraurigkeit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Still sticking with 6" here and hoping for double that, really liking the short range models today and the fact of the system already over performing in Texas....good signs hopefully! Our exchange on the other thread was deleted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I've got a feeling about this storm, and it's not good. I feel like this is one of those times where radar is going to look just great, but then when it gets over us(central NC folks)..... nothing happens. This one might be tough to take if we get a virgizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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