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January General Banter Thread II


Marion_NC_WX

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Can anyone explain what the NWS in Nashville is talking about; the modeling I have seen does not indicate the end of month warm up. Could the statement be based solely off the prjected rise in NAO that has been projected for the past week? Any guidance would be great!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN

438 AM CST WED JAN 19 2011

.SHORT TERM...IT WAS CLOUDY AND COOL ACROSS THE MID STATE EARLY

THIS MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S NORTH

TO LOWER 40S SOUTH. LIGHT SNOW AND DRIZZLE IS OCCURRING AT WFO

NASHVILLE AT THIS TIME, AND WILL LEAVE PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES

IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY TODAY.

EXPECT SOME PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY..ESPECIALLY

SOUTH AND WEST, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO

LOWER 40S.

STILL EXPECT A COLD BLAST OF CANADIAN AIR TO SWEEP IN ON THURSDAY,

WITH A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW PROGRESSING EASTWARD ALONG

THE OUTER EDGE OF THIS SURGE OF FRIGIDITY. SNOW WILL LIKELY

DEVELOP IN OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND THEN

SPREAD CROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, BEFORE

TAPERING OFF LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS OUT

OF KENTUCKY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND MAY HELP TO KEEP AT LEAST A

CHANCE OF SNOW GOING INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER, AFTER

THAT SECONDARY FRONT PASSES, CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE PRETTY

RAPIDLY, WITH PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREA-WIDE BY LATE

FRIDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKS LIKE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN

ONE AND TWO INCHES, WITH THE PLATEAU GETTING ITS TYPICAL

COMPLIMENTARY ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO DUE TO OROGRAPHICS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS TOWARD MIDDLE TENNESSEE FRIDAY NIGHT AND

BRINGS AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR FLURRIES OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN

AREAS.

.LONG TERM...SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND

WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FOR NEXT MONDAY AND

TUESDAY, BRINGING ALONG A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. AFTER THAT, WE

MAY BE LOOKING AT AN EVOLVING LONG WAVE PATTERN CHANGE, AS THE MEAN EAST

COAST TROUGH PUSHES OFF TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND, RIDGE BUCKLES OF WEST

COAST AND A MEAN SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH DEVELOP FROM BAJA

CALIFORNIA NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THUS, BELIEVE A

GENERAL TREND TOWARD MILDER CONDITIONS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT

WEEK LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY. IN ADDITION, LATEST

ARCTIC OSCILLATION TREND FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENTLY LEANING TOWARD

A MILDER PATTERN AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE END OF THE MONTH.

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Can anyone explain what the NWS in Nashville is talking about; the modeling I have seen does not indicate the end of month warm up. Could the statement be based solely off the prjected rise in NAO that has been projected for the past week? Any guidance would be great!

That would be my guess, Matthew East just posted a video where he talks about that. The PNA goes positive creating some major ridging in the west so temps may stay cold. I would guess we probably go more seasonal...which for Feb is still cold but maybe not the huge departures we've seen Jan. and Dec....so in that respect it would seem like we are in a warm up.

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James, thats because the GFS is the red headed stepchild of models and you know what they say. Never trust a ginger.

Hey now! My wife and kids are red headed.

Anyway, it's nice to see there is a threat next week. Hope to get one more shot before February. I think this will be our last shot at winter weather this winter.

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Throwing in the towel here in Aiken. We got a couple inches last week with an inch of ice on top of it. Nothing fun to even look at or play in. Meanwhile 30 minutes up the road in Cola. they got over 6 inches. We have no shot with this storm, and even if we did, I wouldn't know since I don't live in Charlotte or NE GA. So oh well, ready for 70 degrees and sunny.

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Hey now! My wife and kids are red headed.

Anyway, it's nice to see there is a threat next week. Hope to get one more shot before February. I think this will be our last shot at winter weather this winter.

My brother calls me Ginger Beard for a reason so I've earned the right to talk about red heads. My son is strawberry blonde as well.

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Haha, I just realized I have access to the Euro via GARP in the computer lab here at NC State in Jordan Hall. :thumbsup:

It's about a 15 minute walk from my dorm, so I don't plan on using it much to simply check the Euro, but alas.

Awesome. Looking forward to some play by play from you as well with that weather knowledge they are teaching you.:thumbsup:

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It has been a really tough winter for y'all in the Triangle.

Yeah, it snowed twice in December. And one was on Christmas, which was awesome. They were both pretty good storms. Just saying that's probably all we're going to get. The rest of winter has been a waste of good potential. How dare I want more than two snows all winter, though.

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Yeah, it snowed twice in December. And one was on Christmas, which was awesome. They were both pretty good storms. Just saying that's probably all we're going to get. The rest of winter has been a waste of good potential. How dare I want more than two snows all winter, though.

Brick, I think I remember reading in a thread where your exact words were "If I get snow on Christmas, then I would give up the rest of the snow for the season". :whistle:

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