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January General Banter Thread II


Marion_NC_WX

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woo hoo! just got up and have checked a few things, but still trying to wake up (although when i saw the widespread wsw i certainly perked up quickly lol)

still looking good for a lot of us - snow atl to athn north

:snowman: :snowman: noticed that finger of moisture in n ga, and yes this is a weenie imby comment, i sure hope that verifies :popcorn:

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BOOM for some......

woo hoo! just got up and have checked a few things, but still trying to wake up (although when i saw the widespread wsw i certainly perked up quickly lol)

still looking good for a lot of us - snow atl to athn north

:snowman: :snowman: noticed that finger of moisture in n ga, and yes this is a weenie imby comment, i sure hope that verifies :popcorn:

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Central NC people. The 12Z NAM really was not that bad of a run. It does shift higher amounts closer to us. Total precip is probably around .3 liquid, but there always seems to be a shift of higher amounts northward during the storm (i.e. southern Virginia is slated to get very little and they end up under WSW).

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A lady on GMA said 4-6 inches of snow would be the biggest storm in Atlanta since 1940? That's not right, is it? March '93? I felt confident that I remembered bigger snow there, but maybe not.

As usual...they are useless...In 93, Atlanta was on the cusp...Marietta 10-12"...Hartsfield 4"...Mar 23-24, 1980 had 7.9" but it was pure dynamically driven glop...

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Central NC people. The 12Z NAM really was not that bad of a run. It does shift higher amounts closer to us. Total precip is probably around .3 liquid, but there always seems to be a shift of higher amounts northward during the storm (i.e. southern Virginia is slated to get very little and they end up under WSW).

06z GFS was way better... over .5"... and the 06z NAM was less than .25" but then got wetter at 12z. If the 12z GFS humors us we might be in business.

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06z GFS was way better... over .5"... and the 06z NAM was less than .25" but then got wetter at 12z. If the 12z GFS humors us we might be in business.

Yes but I think we are blinded by the high snow amounts to our SW. It is very cold right now. Ground temps (and pavement) are freezing. They will still be freezing for this event. If we end up with close to .25 liquid freezing rain (and we could with the main event and then a full day of freezing drizzle), it will be a nightmare on the roads. That would be a big event in itself...

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06z GFS was way better... over .5"... and the 06z NAM was less than .25" but then got wetter at 12z. If the 12z GFS humors us we might be in business.

Well HPC said throw out the 12z NAM. Even so I think we will approach .5" of QPF with a little snow, sleet and frzn. Nothing like what burger and foothills are going to see, they look golden. One of these days we will be In the sweet spot.

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Well HPC said throw out the 12z NAM. Even so I think we will approach .5" of QPF with a little snow, sleet and frzn. Nothing like what burger and foothills are going to see, they look golden. One of these days we will be In the sweet spot.

Remember how well throwing out the 12z gfs during the christmas storm went rolleyes.gif

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Remember how well throwing out the 12z gfs during the christmas storm went rolleyes.gif

And, I'm probably reading this wrong, but I'm reading it's for things that are modeled after our event:

PREFERENCE: AFTER 00Z TUE...GFS OR ECWMF

THE NAM INITIALIZES THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER

OREGON/IDAHO APPROXIMATELY 25 NM TOO FAR NORTH...WHICH CONTRIBUTES

TO AN INCREASINGLY SLOW AND DEEP SOLUTION ENTERING THE OHIO VALLEY

LATE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE COMPARED TO GFS/ECMWF WHICH ARE WEAKER

AND MORE PROGRESSIVE. THUS...THE NAM IS DISCOUNTED BEGINNING 00Z

TUE

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Just flew into ATL in the past hour or so. high clouds moving in from SW. Interesting obs on the way in.....winds at upper levels slightly stronger than progged further SW we flew coming from the NE this am. Stronger upper levels mean anything to the mets here??? Just an interesting tidbit i thought. Finish up at about 5pm today and will be really fun overnight tonight....gonna break out some sleds for tommorow!!!!!

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I wasn't on the boards prior to the Christmas storm so I'm wondering which model was the most accurate so close to the start of it. I mean, which model should we really rely on and which model (or models) should we ignore? It seems like there are varying opinions about which one is the most reliable closest to the event.

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And, I'm probably reading this wrong, but I'm reading it's for things that are modeled after our event:

PREFERENCE: AFTER 00Z TUE...GFS OR ECWMF

THE NAM INITIALIZES THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER

OREGON/IDAHO APPROXIMATELY 25 NM TOO FAR NORTH...WHICH CONTRIBUTES

TO AN INCREASINGLY SLOW AND DEEP SOLUTION ENTERING THE OHIO VALLEY

LATE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE COMPARED TO GFS/ECMWF WHICH ARE WEAKER

AND MORE PROGRESSIVE. THUS...THE NAM IS DISCOUNTED BEGINNING 00Z

TUE

correct, its discussing the system over the rockies currently... so its not necessary relevant to our system.

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Just flew into ATL in the past hour or so. high clouds moving in from SW. Interesting obs on the way in.....winds at upper levels slightly stronger than progged further SW we flew coming from the NE this am. Stronger upper levels mean anything to the mets here??? Just an interesting tidbit i thought. Finish up at about 5pm today and will be really fun overnight tonight....gonna break out some sleds for tommorow!!!!!

Where were you flying and what level did you note this difference? Could have some interesting implications. weight_lift.gif

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I just can't get excited about this storm for the RDU area. Every time I see a little more qpf, something else comes out w/ less. Maybe it'll be one of those events where I'm surprised at what we get but right now I'm just not feeling it.

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