WidreMann Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 So it was almost the edge of actual light snow for about 5 minutes. Absolutely no accumulation and now it's done. Yep, that's it folks. Even the dry models busted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 So it was almost the edge of actual light snow for about 5 minutes. Absolutely no accumulation and now it's done. Yep, that's it folks. Even the dry models busted. Models are a joke huh? When will people learn and just turn to waking up looking outside and seeing what the weather is. Be better than following the sorry models that are worse than 20 years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Models are a joke huh? When will people learn and just turn to waking up looking outside and seeing what the weather is. Be better than following the sorry models that are worse than 20 years ago I think the best thing the models can do is show that there is potential. As far as how much we get, that is pretty much in the air when it comes to snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 My area busted bad also. This morning had over half and inch and now down to a trace. Only had light flurries off and on all day. models showed me getting 5 or 6 inches for the last day or so. Now a small batch approaches and has sleet mixed in. We are changing over just as fast as the coastal plain geez. Oh well always next storm but looks like were warming up for a while after this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 And the snow has stopped here in the RTP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The max precip I've seen on any of the models this week was .5 qpf. Now that is the total for the storm. The last I checked the lp is just going across Florida and not yet in the Atlantic. There is going to be more moisture for our area but it will probably be in the ip/zr category. My point is lets wait till the storm is over before we say the models have busted because I really don't think they have done that bad of a job so far. All the models showed the dry air here and most showed lighter qpf than anywhere else. That's the reason I have not been surprised so far. My expectations were low coming into today....Now I did expect 1" of snow but oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Someone put this WidreMann on suicide watch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Someone put this WidreMann on suicide watch... Oh that's not necessary. Widre's ok. I guarantee he'll be happy with the blizzard of Feb. 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 So it was almost the edge of actual light snow for about 5 minutes. Absolutely no accumulation and now it's done. Same here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Someone put this WidreMann on suicide watch... For more reasons than just the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Light snow here again. Not going to add up much though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Some band is heading this way, but I'm guessing this one'll be sleet or ZR. Maybe some snow at the onset. Either way, not accumulating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NC peeps, don't forget that we usually get most of our snow in February. It's easy to forget that, though, since most of our snows the past few years have come in December and January. But we still have a long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Some band is heading this way, but I'm guessing this one'll be sleet or ZR. Maybe some snow at the onset. Either way, not accumulating. We were at 33 the whole time it was "snowing". 30.8 now though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rawlee Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 as said, painful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 And by the way, you can't predict snow accums around here. It's darn near impossible to nail it down exactly. Models can maybe give you a hint as to where the best precip will fall and what form it might take, but even that can be in error by more than 100 miles. I admire all the mets and other folks that try to do it. It's hard. It takes a lot of effort. But it's a fools errand. With the technology that we have in place today, it can't be done across a broad area. Sure, you might can nail down a small area pretty good, but you can't get it right for whole state or an area bigger than that. In our region, there are just way too many things that prevent accurate snowfall forecasts. Here are some: 1) Track of the storm -- small variations can make huge differences....models don't usually have a good handle on this till 24 hrs out. 2) Strength of the storm -- again small variations can make huge differences. 3) Convection in the Gulf -- can rob or enhance moisture transport....nowcasting is all you have with this element. 4) Warm nose -- usually comes in sooner than forecast...but sometimes it doesn't. Unpredictable, unless you're forecasting very broadly. 5) Dynamics -- Higher rates can offset warming aloft...but where will the higher rates be? Will they occur? Will they be strong enough to offset the underforecast warm nose? 6) Cloud cover/insolation -- It would have been more snow and less rain if the clouds had moved in quicker and the boundary layer hadn't climbed into the mid 40s. How many times have we seen this happen? 7) Phasing -- Too early, rain. Too late, dry....how many times has that been missed? 8) Dry air -- Nobody on the planet knows how long that will take to overcome, but it's usually longer than most people think. What else? I'm sure I'm missing something. You can't forecast snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I wonder if the roads in the Triangle will be ok before 11:00 tonight. I am supposed to go to Chapel Hill after work. Are you going over there to jump off the cliff with Weirdmann? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NC peeps, don't forget that we usually get most of our snow in February. It's easy to forget that, though, since most of our snows the past few years have come in December and January. But we still have a long way to go. Perhaps, in the new climate regime, December and January are the sweet months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 VICTORY!!! Light snow in Raleigh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Heavy snow for enough to give us a dusting over the last 10 minutes. On driveway and walk too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 VICTORY!!! Light snow in Raleigh! That's what I like to hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I was just thinking about this storm and it could possiblly hit from Tx all the way to Maine and just skip Wake County up to SE Va....When you think of it that way that is pretty depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I was just thinking about this storm and it could possiblly hit from Tx all the way to Maine and just skip Wake County up to SE Va....When you think of it that way that is pretty depressing. I agree, tough one here, oh well, maybe next year we will be in the sweet spot for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I agree, tough one here, oh well, maybe next year we will be in the sweet spot for once. Next YEAR?? Winter aint over man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I agree, tough one here, oh well, maybe next year we will be in the sweet spot for once. But in all fairness there have been times we got a good storm and others got nothing...I guess this is just our turn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I have a IP dusting on the back deck still pinging at the windows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I have a IP dusting on the back deck still pinging at the windows... Yeah, I got IP here also...Skipped the sn and straight to ip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yeah, I got IP here also...Skipped the sn and straight to ip. yep, we had a few dendrites at the onset, a rogue quarter here or there, but that quickly transitioned to plates (dense sn-flakes, not fluffy crystals) and sleet. Now I am 100% IP, with off and on showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 yep, we had a few dendrites at the onset, a rogue quarter here or there, but that quickly transitioned to plates (dense sn-flakes, not fluffy crystals) and sleet. Now I am 100% IP, with off and on showers. Just the way this one has gone...BTW your measurement picture in the picture thread cracked me up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 But in all fairness there have been times we got a good storm and others got nothing...I guess this is just our turn! Disagree, everyone north, south, east, west of us have killed it the past 2 winters where we are at average. Even eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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