ams30721us Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 830 AM CST SUN JAN 9 2011 ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074- 091630- ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND- MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR- SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES- CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON- NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER- WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH- SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN- LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROSSETT...NORTH CROSSETT...HAMBURG... WEST CROSSETT...DERMOTT...LAKE VILLAGE...EUDORA...BASTROP... OAK GROVE...EPPS...LAKE PROVIDENCE...RAYVILLE...DELHI... TALLULAH...WINNSBORO...JONESVILLE...HARRISONBURG...NEWELLTON... ST. JOSEPH...WATERPROOF...VIDALIA...FERRIDAY...WEST FERRIDAY... CLEVELAND...INDIANOLA...RULEVILLE...GREENWOOD...GRENADA... VAIDEN...NORTH CARROLLTON...CARROLLTON...WINONA...EUPORA... MABEN...MATHISTON...WEST POINT...COLUMBUS...ACKERMAN...WEIR... STARKVILLE...GREENVILLE...BELZONI...ISOLA...DURANT...TCHULA... LEXINGTON...PICKENS...GOODMAN...KOSCIUSKO...LOUISVILLE...MACON... BROOKSVILLE...MAYERSVILLE...ROLLING FORK...ANGUILLA... YAZOO CITY...RIDGELAND...MADISON...CANTON...CARTHAGE... PHILADELPHIA...PEARL RIVER...DE KALB...SCOOBA...VICKSBURG... JACKSON...PEARL...BRANDON...RICHLAND...FOREST...MORTON...NEWTON... UNION...DECATUR...CONEHATTA...MERIDIAN...PORT GIBSON... CRYSTAL SPRINGS...HAZLEHURST...WESSON...MAGEE...MENDENHALL... TAYLORSVILLE...RALEIGH...BAY SPRINGS...HEIDELBERG...QUITMAN... STONEWALL...SHUBUTA...FAYETTE...NATCHEZ...BUDE...ROXIE... MEADVILLE...BROOKHAVEN...MONTICELLO...NEW HEBRON...PRENTISS... BASSFIELD...COLLINS...MOUNT OLIVE...LAUREL...COLUMBIA... WEST HATTIESBURG...LUMBERTON...PURVIS...HATTIESBURG 830 AM CST SUN JAN 9 2011 ...DETERIORATING TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING... AT 830 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF SLEET...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN...ALONG INTERSTATE 20 FROM MONROE THROUGH VICKSBURG...TO THE JACKSON METRO AREA TO MERIDIAN. THIS BAND OF MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION WAS LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH. ROAD CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORATING FROM JACKSON WEST THROUGH NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING...AND REPORTS INDICATE THAT BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES ARE BECOMING ICY. ACCIDENTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE VICKSBURG AREA. THIS BAND WILL LIKELY LIFT JUST NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR BY LATE MORNING...PROVIDING A BREAK IN THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION BEFORE MORE MOVES IN THIS AFTERNOON. FOR AREAS JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 TO THE US HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH THE MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT ONCE THEY BECOME POOR. OVER SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY ABOVE FREEZING AND ANY PRECIPITATION IS VERY LIGHT. WINTRY PRECIPITATION COULD BECOME A CONCERN AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. $$ AEG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Ha the time I have been around and getting into this stuff! lol Are you back in Georgia still? This is looking like a nice storm for the Dalton area. The NAM is back to showing a 6-8" snow for much of the ATL metro, more north, less south. FFC's 3-5" is looking very good at this point. As for temps, Dacula you're right about us being lower than forecast-I hit 18 and was supposed to hit 20. Currently 27 with a dewpoint of...7! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Check out my favorite water vapor loop. This thing is really getting cranked up. If the 12z NAM pans out the Jan 88 analog mentioned earlier will be pretty close here in NC. Good luck everyone!! http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20090118&endTime=-1&duration=5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 WRAL posted this on FB: Look at the lower left panel. See the dark green over northern North Carolina, and the brown (I am color challenged!) over South Carolina? That tan is dry air in the mid levels of the atmosphere poised to roar into NC tomorrow night. Computer models are notoriously bad at continuing to show heavy precipitation even th...ough the moisture needed for that to occur is gone. This storm could end up being largely over by the wee hours of Tuesday morning. That is great news for folks who don't like power outages-not so good for snow lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The NAM is in excellent agreement basicallly with SREF and RUC just a little wetter maybe and thats to be expected . At first I noticed the 1.00" amounts in Ark and Miss. associated with the 5H center, and now that center is coming right over head, in tandem with the surface low in the Gulf, fairly slowly, so the comma head should do its act and sweep an arc of heavy, slow moving snow across the mid South, getting a lot of folks with a 6" snowfall or greater, and of course some areas of banding will lay down 12" but its a tough call exactly where. Then after the good lift is over for the western and central Carolinas, the ZR and light freezing drizzle becomes a big factor, because the Savannah River valley trough will connect with the GA coastal and with our temps widespread still in the 20's, this could be a significant glazing in the piedmont and foothills. Overall it has a little more factors that point to this being a little more than the run of the mill 80's storm, making it a vicious storm for some areas. If the NAM is right, there will be tree damage and power outages for some areas, probably n. GA and the Upstate maybe southern NC, just from the snow, and beyond that whatever ice accumulates. This is quickly escalating into a much bigger deal than just a nice 4 to 6" snowfall. 12z NAM really amped up the QPF for the I-85 corridor from N GA up to CLT. Nearly an inch precip around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 12z NAM really amped up the QPF for the I-85 corridor from N GA up to CLT. Nearly an inch precip around here. While it's hard to believe we could get close to a foot over here, hopefully it can transport just north to you. Gotta take those amounts with a grain of salt but if we can get .75 mostly snow with good rates...look out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 WRAL posted this on FB: Look at the lower left panel. See the dark green over northern North Carolina, and the brown (I am color challenged!) over South Carolina? That tan is dry air in the mid levels of the atmosphere poised to roar into NC tomorrow night. Computer models are notoriously bad at continuing to show heavy precipitation even th...ough the moisture needed for that to occur is gone. This storm could end up being largely over by the wee hours of Tuesday morning. That is great news for folks who don't like power outages-not so good for snow lovers. Basically, they're saying that the models notoriously overestimate the precipitation. I hate to sound like a particular weenie, but it is confusing when we constantly hear that models underestimate the precipitation with events like this, then a WRAL met team says that they are notorious for overestimating precip. Is there a reason why they will be right (or wrong) in this case? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 out to 12 and that low is a lot stronger compared to the 6z run of the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 WRAL posted this on FB: All models, like the 12z nam, were showing it being over by then anyways so I don't understand the big deal of what they said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Basically, they're saying that the models notoriously overestimate the precipitation. I hate to sound like a particular weenie, but it is confusing when we constantly hear that models underestimate the precipitation with events like this, then a WRAL met team says that they are notorious for overestimating precip. Is there a reason why they will be right (or wrong) in this case? What it comes down to is they are thinking it will cut off by very early Tuesday because of dry air aloft punching into NC. I don't know their reasoning otherwise. They didn't elaborate beyond that. The statement seemed to focus on early Tuesday anyway when it would basically be ZR at that point in central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Are you back in Georgia still? This is looking like a nice storm for the Dalton area. The NAM is back to showing a 6-8" snow for much of the ATL metro, more north, less south. FFC's 3-5" is looking very good at this point. As for temps, Dacula you're right about us being lower than forecast-I hit 18 and was supposed to hit 20. Currently 27 with a dewpoint of...7! I am, could not miss this one! lol Just here till Tuesday or maybe a day or two longer now...haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Quicker @21 with more precip...looks like it's going to be another good run for us NC folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The only thing thats a bit concerning is the MCV that has developed in the GOM. Looks to already be robbing some moisture per what I see on water vapor. I would be more concerned if it weren't for the reflectivity plots I saw on the 12z nam. Unbelievably, it seems that the nam has actually identified this feature and wants to pick it up and draw it back into the the moisture flow. No wonder the totals went way up this run! Now mesoscale feature are very hard to predict, but if this occurs like the nam is depicting... LOOKOUT! Current Radar... very discernible circulation. Nam picks up on it and merges with the deformation band. Unreal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 FWIW, the 12z RGEM upped the qpf for GA/SC/NC compared to the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Well like usual the GFS is not as wet as the NAM....nowcast time anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The NAM is just now figuring out all the lift its had over our area for 3 runs in a row now. The QPF has been too light for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 For Western NC and specifically the Charlotte area, it will be interesting to see if NWS GSP places weight on the updated 12z NAM or the 12zGFS. The 2 show the difference between a warning event and an advisory event. My hunch is they will split it down the middle and keep the warning which is the most prudent thing to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Wv looking interesting to say the least: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 the GFS looked warmer overall, but its 5H is like manyothers now. Its still too light overall also, but the warming aloft would bring the snow line north faster. Someting to keep in mind in n. Miss. Al, GA and the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 My soil temp has only cooled a few degrees over night to 39.6. I'll be interested in what the early sticking rates will be. Still not used to it coming into cold air for a change. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Looks like there's a bullseye of 15MM on the RGEM right over Charlotte and points east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Well like usual the GFS is not as wet as the NAM....nowcast time anyways. Yeah, I saw that..... It's time to drop the global models and start watching the high resolution models. I know it hasn't happened yet but, it looks like Foothills will be spot on once again. If I recall this will make him 3 for 3 this winter when he went against the grain. He has a great handle on seeing potentials.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Well like usual the GFS is not as wet as the NAM....nowcast time anyways. The QPF from the gfs thus far in texas has been underdone... Waco, TX was at 1.56" at 12z this morning for the previous six hours... the GFS only had them under .75-1.00 QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The WRF looks nice! broad swath of .75 to 1.00 over N AL, N GA, Southern TN, headed for NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 12 UTC GGEM is impressive with regards to precipitation amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Seeing returns as far east on the Birmingham GRLevel3 radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 SV maps of 12Z GFS show decent lift at 700mb from 27-33 hrs over the upstate of SC and the southern foothills and piedmont of NC but do not generate a lot of precipitation. This run of the GFS looks like past runs of the NAM. Good lift but the QPF doesn't quite match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Couldn't be happier with the latest RUC at 5h, the 700 moisture and UVV. It arrives in western SC and lower NC around 3 AM, perfect timing, by 6 am we should have a covered ground. The rates show good building in northern GA as the axis of deformation gets stretched and it looks like beyond this 18 hour frame that there will be a wall of moisture from Charleston to Memphis, so that tilting is looking like the NAM showed, classic comma head. I know at some point we'll switch over to sleet then ZR from south to north as the event wears on but the area where the snow may max out will probably be in much of the state of TENN, esp. the southern half and eastern third and stretching across the Carolina's border region, either side, and including northern GA, as for absolute final snow tallies and good lift, thats where I'd draw the map for totals. Great storm for everybody though in the Southeast with something for everyone, and the earlier start time will allow the snow to stretch east into the eastern piedmont esp. southeast piedmont. I haven't seen profiles yet but with southeast 850 and decent easterly surface into western SC I see a big snow local max there or around AVL to Marion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 So, do you guys think that RAH is going to put out advisories or warnings? I would have to imagine for the Northern parts of their area they will switch the watches to Advisories, and possibly for the southern counties go ahead and put up a warning because of more moisture and greater chance of more significant ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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