chapelhillwx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'll try to power up the snow jets and send it your way Haha, thanks. Weird actually... the 06z GFS gave IGX 0.6" of QPF, and this run looks more powerful all the way here where it just stops, despite the decent omegas over nearly all of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Must be dreaming, even Southern Pines is in the >0.25" as SN this run. Hahah yeah I was amazed to be in RAH's sweet spot in the morning disco. We shall we unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bta0812 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Thanks, strong...I'm here for the event as a new 'weenie to be' to be quite and to learn. Hope the mods are selective in their deletes in that respect. You ain't the only one. Just listen to these guys and try to be selective with your questions. You will learn tons. I had to learn the hard way, on my FIRST post lol. I am so glad this thing is trending better as far as precip amounts go for NC, but then theres still that whole dry air problem for some us and the the Zr crap. But this is part of the chase, maybe it'll go our way. Gotta hope for some high ratios I guess to lower the time that the air eats up all my stinking snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I think this will be around 1. for CLT. I can tell you now from the way this is setting up, its going to be one of the best storms in highway 74's history in a while. Its a culmination of the slowness of the track, the duration of precip, the heavy rates all day monday and the fact we're mostly snow, and even some areas going back over to snow maybe around GSP to Gastonia as the coastal in GA wraps colder air in. The surface temps are low to mid 20's through the event, this is shaping up to be something special for sure in a lot of places but for northeast GA and the western Carolinas in particular with the coastal and lee trough keeping lift going , with the incoming 5H and divergence feeding the coastal, thats what we usually don't have for most of our storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 WW snowfall map has a slug of 10-15" amounts NEGA up the spine of the southern apps on the NC/SC line towards Tryon (Tyron also hit it big in 88) 6-10" a line from N AL all the way over to the southern Sandhills of NC and up into wnc and southern foothills. At least this is the best I can explain with out posting the map.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 12z NAM is looks like a big hit for Chatt and Knoxville. Remains to be seen how far north it can get. Seems much more in line w/ the RUC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 pay map. Can not post Just view the NAM output on allan's site http://raleighwx.ame...els/12znam.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Have gotten a little work done this morning but had to get on to see this!! mmmmm for once, ne ga and the upstate's back yards *may* be the jack pot. that finger of heavier moisture is still showing up through our areas. i cant believe how widespread the wsw are - this is still looking to be a doozy. just checked the latest RUC (13z run) and it seems pretty quick with the precip, bringing it in by hours 4 or 5 in west ga and 7 over all n ga. that might be an outlier (havent checked enough yet), but if so its pretty fast and is here by late afternoon! expecting a solid 6"+ gainesville north and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 pay map. Can not post Just view the NAM output on allan's site http://raleighwx.ame...els/12znam.html With good rates we should be in the 6-10...amazing. Hope that pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Some Additional Good News... 09z SREF mean had slightly more QPF than the 03z run, which was already rather juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 WW map had it just to our south along the state line.... so yes, I agree..... With good rates we should be in the 6-10...amazing. Hope that pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 POW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Hahah yeah I was amazed to be in RAH's sweet spot in the morning disco. We shall we unfolds. Get your candles ready Jeremy, this could be a real mess for you. I am of the opinion that the NAM is still struggling with resolving the vortmax in the near term. It is shearing this energy out quicker than what the RUC is indicating through 18 hours. Therefore, QPF amounts, at-least for the western part of the state are suspect, and could trend higher as we saw with this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 profiles off the 12z nam for RDU look like snow to start then a pretty nasty sleet event. It is real cold in the boundary layer so I do not think zr is as big of an issue until the very end of the event. Deep saturation is lost by midnight tuesday but even then the sounding is well below 0C for a good depth that sleet would be the dominate P-type. If you factor in the NAM usually being a bit slow and always remember that these QPF maps are not gospel, this is a respectable event for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Folks in southern Tn, n. Ms, n Al, n. GA and Upstate to w. NC are in the mega snows by 27 hours. The accum. are up there. Much wetter. The .75" is exactly as you'd think under the strong 5H track this is hard to believe, after days of watching, waiting and hoping its about upon us. and so far, all indications are game on. the RUC is really bringing the moisture in quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Robert, you have been so consistent for days looks like you are really gonna nail this forecast this is your storm. I have to agree. Even when the models disagreed with him, they too finally came around. I propose a new winter storm model called FHS. Couldn't have been more on target. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The NAM is in excellent agreement basicallly with SREF and RUC just a little wetter maybe and thats to be expected . At first I noticed the 1.00" amounts in Ark and Miss. associated with the 5H center, and now that center is coming right over head, in tandem with the surface low in the Gulf, fairly slowly, so the comma head should do its act and sweep an arc of heavy, slow moving snow across the mid South, getting a lot of folks with a 6" snowfall or greater, and of course some areas of banding will lay down 12" but its a tough call exactly where. Then after the good lift is over for the western and central Carolinas, the ZR and light freezing drizzle becomes a big factor, because the Savannah River valley trough will connect with the GA coastal and with our temps widespread still in the 20's, this could be a significant glazing in the piedmont and foothills. Overall it has a little more factors that point to this being a little more than the run of the mill 80's storm, making it a vicious storm for some areas. If the NAM is right, there will be tree damage and power outages for some areas, probably n. GA and the Upstate maybe southern NC, just from the snow, and beyond that whatever ice accumulates. This is quickly escalating into a much bigger deal than just a nice 4 to 6" snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 this is hard to believe, after days of watching, waiting and hoping its about upon us. and so far, all indications are game on. the RUC is really bringing the moisture in quickly The nam just dropped the hammer on us. Looks like are area along with oconee should get into the 1.0 qpf amounts awesome. Even the sref looks wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 wow. just wow. has our time come? i am having a hard time comprehending the qpf, it seems to have increased again (similar to christmas eve) and temps are way cold. smelling salts? lol at this point, i will only be paying a little (if any) attention to the gfs, nam or euro. its the ruc for me (esp after the last storm). i know foothills also likes it, not sure why others complain about that model, it seems really good with meso scale features (imo) and we are now in its range interesting to note this is a long duration event (event light freezing drizzle after snow counts for the event imby lol) not ending til sometime tues morning Robert, you have been so consistent for days looks like you are really gonna nail this forecast this is your storm. +100 foothills, you need to be the met for the se. you have nailed the christmas storm and appears this one as well The nam just dropped the hammer on us. Looks like are area along with oconee should get into the 1.0 qpf amounts awesome. Even the sref looks wetter. sure did. am i still asleep and just dreaming? of all the events to hammer us, one with these cold temps is a good one! if the ruc and sref keep this up i really might faint later today lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The NAM is in excellent agreement basicallly with SREF and RUC just a little wetter maybe and thats to be expected . At first I noticed the 1.00" amounts in Ark and Miss. associated with the 5H center, and now that center is coming right over head, in tandem with the surface low in the Gulf, fairly slowly, so the comma head should do its act and sweep an arc of heavy, slow moving snow across the mid South, getting a lot of folks with a 6" snowfall or greater, and of course some areas of banding will lay down 12" but its a tough call exactly where. Then after the good lift is over for the western and central Carolinas, the ZR and light freezing drizzle becomes a big factor, because the Savannah River valley trough will connect with the GA coastal and with our temps widespread still in the 20's, this could be a significant glazing in the piedmont and foothills. Overall it has a little more factors that point to this being a little more than the run of the mill 80's storm, making it a vicious storm for some areas. If the NAM is right, there will be tree damage and power outages for some areas, probably n. GA and the Upstate maybe southern NC, just from the snow, and beyond that whatever ice accumulates. This is quickly escalating into a much bigger deal than just a nice 4 to 6" snowfall. Are you worried at all about convective robbing moisture? If you look at the radar in Texas you can see the line of storms in the Gulf moving south and east faster than the main precip shield. IIRC this would lead to disrupted moisture transport further down the road as the line outruns the rest of the storm, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Get your candles ready Jeremy, this could be a real mess for you. I am of the opinion that the NAM is still struggling with resolving the vortmax in the near term. It is shearing this energy out quicker than what the RUC is indicating through 18 hours. Therefore, QPF amounts, at-least for the western part of the state are suspect, and could trend higher as we saw with this run. Oh yeah I have been highlighting in my discussions since yesterday that i was suspicious of how fast the vort was being killed. I mentioned last night thinking about longer term power outages. I now have a pt job in addition to met in FAY and I am weary of driving over there tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I have to agree. Even when the models disagreed with him, they too finally came around. I propose a new winter storm model called FHS. Couldn't have been more on target. This run is very nice for many. It doesn't however initialize with the band currently over Southern MS pinwheeling outward. Just an ob that maybe this gets east a bit quicker than progged or at least helps saturate the column earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Updated map from GSP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Robert, you have been so consistent for days looks like you are really gonna nail this forecast this is your storm. I have to agree. Even when the models disagreed with him, they too finally came around. I propose a new winter storm model called FHS. Couldn't have been more on target. I just folow patterns from a big picture and work in and see how the meteorlogy should work on a smaller scale. It hasn't happened yet , its just on the models but we'll see if it plays out similar to that. I think it will, but I know for my immediate area I can never expect too much since funny things happen to precip here. but this is as good as I can expect, so it will come down to watching trends from here on out. I just knew a while back and saw signs that the 5H center would be stronger than progged, its been a trend and with the northeast system leaving just in time, that holds our cold in and enhances lift like Phil said, and with strong southeast 850 flow butting up against the Apps, usually it acts like an 850 low, wringing out great snowfall rates and a widespread comma head. So even if I don't get dumped on, I have no doubt that someone around here will, and for areas in GA and points west, I'm sure you guys will. Are you worried at all about convective robbing moisture? If you look at the radar in Texas you can see the line of storms in the Gulf moving south and east faster than the main precip shield. IIRC this would lead to disrupted moisture transport further down the road as the line outruns the rest of the storm, correct? I'm always worried about that for NC, but haven't had time to look yet and compare it to RUC or the models yet. Its something to watch always, but also the good lift here in the western Carolinas will come from the divergence created by a 5H system , which would be a good snowmaker even without a strong gulf low. I'm pretty glad actually theres' no strong Gulf low, we need a weaker one here for the foothills and western piedmont region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Wow. The 12Z and the RUC depicts a special storm for this part of GA! Thanks for all the great model analysis Robert. You have been great!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 WSB's in house model has me changing over to sleet/ZR around 1am tonight. Not buying it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The NAM is in excellent agreement basicallly with SREF and RUC just a little wetter maybe and thats to be expected . At first I noticed the 1.00" amounts in Ark and Miss. associated with the 5H center, and now that center is coming right over head, in tandem with the surface low in the Gulf, fairly slowly, so the comma head should do its act and sweep an arc of heavy, slow moving snow across the mid South, getting a lot of folks with a 6" snowfall or greater, and of course some areas of banding will lay down 12" but its a tough call exactly where. Then after the good lift is over for the western and central Carolinas, the ZR and light freezing drizzle becomes a big factor, because the Savannah River valley trough will connect with the GA coastal and with our temps widespread still in the 20's, this could be a significant glazing in the piedmont and foothills. Overall it has a little more factors that point to this being a little more than the run of the mill 80's storm, making it a vicious storm for some areas. If the NAM is right, there will be tree damage and power outages for some areas, probably n. GA and the Upstate maybe southern NC, just from the snow, and beyond that whatever ice accumulates. This is quickly escalating into a much bigger deal than just a nice 4 to 6" snowfall. Yea Foothills I cannot believe what I am seeing to be honest. Chattanooga text data indicates around 1.14 QPF for Chattanooga itself which well you know what that means...haha I dont think I have ever seen this for this area in the past 15yrs of me watching weather since younger. This is how they must have felt in 93! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 WSB's in house model has me changing over to sleet/ZR around 1am tonight. Not buying it WSB has an actual in house model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yea Foothills I cannot believe what I am seeing to be honest. Chattanooga text data indicates around 1.14 QPF for Chattanooga itself which well you know what that means...haha I dont think I have ever seen this for this area in the past 15yrs of me watching weather since younger. This is how they must have felt in 93! It is has been a while but as I said earlier...it is not crazy...and 93 was not anything like this. It was March and in the 70s two days out with mets telling you a snow storm is coming. This is much more believable...60s-late 80s would have some decent snow here from these Gulf lows....only the last 20 years have been different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.