jburns Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Well Raleigh says...........nothing. Just came out. Upgrading me and a lot of their CWA to a WSW. Waiting for the actual forecast of amounts but they sound like they are going to increase them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 307 am EST Monday Jan 10 2011 Synopsis... a low pressure system will move from northern Florida today to the North Carolina coast Tuesday. As the low continues to move northeast in middle week...cold Canadian high pressure will be the dominant weather feature across the southeast through the start of the weekend. && Near term /through tonight/... a fairly significant upward adjustment is going to be needed in accumulations throughout the area...and in the associated threat language of the Winter Storm Warning. The models and ensemble means are now showing considerably more quantitative precipitation forecast than previously...with about an inch liquid equivalent through tonight in SW sections...and one half to three quarter inches across northern and eastern sections of the forecast area. This agrees well with the upstream trends of heavy snowfall rates moving across the SW third of the area this morning...and with negative epv regions still upstream over northern Georgia where a few lightning strikes have been observed. Synoptically...the models have initialized the potent vorticity lobe with the southern stream wave over la quite well early this morning. Frontogenetical forcing...upper jet divergence...and improving DPVA ahead of the wave and north of the Gulf Coast surface low will likely keep the higher snowfall rates in place across the region through at least midday. The deeper qg forcing will likely weaken this afternoon...with Omega transitioning to lower levels as warm advection and upslope forcing improve. The strong middle level dry slot is still expected to work into the area from the S starting early this evening...and steadily move north across the rest of the area overnight. This will allow a changeover to light freezing rain or freezing drizzle. The new west-southwest will feature snow accums around a foot around the NE Georgia mountains...9 inches Asheville to gsp...6 to 8 for Charlotte metropolitan and around 6 inches for north of the Interstate 40 corridor. About one tenth inch of ice on tops could make power outages quite problematic tonight...and driving nearly impossible. i saw that and just made a big ole pot of coffee. i am not about to fall asleep while a foot is not out of the question (i may have imbided a bit too much earlier lol) this storm is just amazing, and is still raging. i do not know the last snowstorm in ga with a temp of 21 its starting to blow around, if this keeps up we will have bona fide snow drifts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 351 AM EST MON JAN 10 2011 ...CRIPPLING WINTER STORM IMPACTING THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... .LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...INTERACTING WITH ARCTIC AIR TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOWFALL TODAY WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT. ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON- MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL- BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL- RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-CHEROKEE-YORK-CHESTER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...HICKORY... SALISBURY...SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE... CONCORD...MONROE...LENOIR...MORGANTON...MARION...LAKE LURE... RUTHERFORD...GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...CHESTER 351 AM EST MON JAN 10 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY... THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY. * LOCATIONS...THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND THE EASTERN UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA. * HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. * TIMING...SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING...BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH...OR CHANGE TO...SLEET IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY ENDING AS A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 9 INCHES TODAY...WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE TONIGHT. * IMPACTS...ROADS WILL QUICKLY BECOME IMPASSABLE DUE TO THE HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES. THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW EARLY IN THE EVENT...WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT...WILL LIKELY CREATE AT LEAST SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE TRAVEL NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE. * TEMPERATURES...25 TO 30 DEGREES THROUGHOUT THE STORM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 folks don't drive. mine started at 2:09 and I've got right at 2" already , less than 2 hours. Went to the store and made it fine. I almost didnt' get home. I got some good vids. Robert great call on the storm buddy! Looks to be a storm we are all going to cash in on this go around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 344 am EST Monday Jan 10 2011 Synopsis... very cold high pressure will extend into the region from the Dakotas today. Meanwhile a low pressure system will track northeast along the southeast coast today through Tuesday...bringing a wintry mixture of precipitation to central North Carolina. && Near term /through tonight/... as of 310 am Monday... Winter Storm Warning has been adjusted farther north and a little sooner in the far south. A Winter Weather Advisory continues for the far north-NE. Band of heavy wintry precipitation across sections of NE Georgia into SC occurring along an enhanced area of isentropic upglide aided by upper level difluence aloft associated with 135+ jet exiting off the northern middle Atlantic coast. Over central NC...a prominent surface ridge extends northwest-southeast across the region...connected to an Arctic high over the north central U.S. The Bone dry air underneath this ridge will initially cause light precipitation advancing steadily north toward our southern counties to evaporate/moisten up the sub cloud layer. Once saturation achieved and/or heavier precipitation rates advance into our southern counties...expect a swath of moderate snow to occur between 5 am - 10 am along and south of a line from Albemarle to Laurinburg. May see snow accumulate up to 2-3 inches within a couple of hours. Due to close proximity of surface ridge and best isentropic upglide occurring farther south over SC/SW NC...may take a while longer for the column to saturate over the northern Piedmont and central coastal plain. Thus...the earlier forecast of precipitation holding off until middle day or early afternoon in the Triangle area still looks good. May see precipitation begin a little sooner than expected over the far western Piedmont in vicinity of Lexington and Winston-Salem as dynamics aloft will be stronger in that region. For areas north and NE of rdu...appears that precipitation will hold off until after middle afternoon...possibly not until sunset. P-type through middle day/early afternoon will be predominately snow. As the afternoon wears on...should see snow mix with sleet over the southern counties as the air mass around 5000ft warms to near or slightly above freezing in response to the approach of an 850mb warm front from the south. Expect mostly snow when precipitation rates are heaviest then transitioning to mainly sleet when precipitation rates become lighter. Maximum temperatures today hinge on duration/arrival of precipitation. Adjusted maximum temperatures down a tad in the NE underneath the ridge with little change elsewhere. Tonight....precip shield will shift northward with time as 850mb warm front lifts slowly north across region and weakening middle level short wave crosses the region. Development of a warm nose aloft will cause precipitation to transition from snow/sleet in the south to mainly freezing rain prior to midnight. Over the north expect snow/sleet mixture for most of the evening transitioning to freezing rain after midnight. Over the northwest Piedmont...including The Triad...transition to freezing rain may not occur until just prior to daybreak as the surface based cold air will be more entrenched in this region. In addition to the arrival of the 850mb warm front...atmosphere in the middle level dry out appreciably in the favored region for dendrite growth. The combination of these two factors will cause precipitation transition from snow/sleet to more freezing rain/sleet. Tough forecast due to the amount of precipitation to occur. Expect the best lift to occur over the southern counties through late afternoon then lift becomes more concentrated over the north this evening and over the NE late tonight. The precipitation amounts in the forecast generally a compromise between the drier European model (ecmwf) and the wetter NAM/Gem. If European model (ecmwf) amounts verify...then expected wintry amounts will be less by a factor of 33-50 percent. Increased ice accretion slightly from previous forecast to account for the potential for temperatures to hover in the upper 20s to near 30 degrees for a good part of the night. This temperature range has been found to allow for decent ice accrual. If temperatures are warmer (closer to 32 degrees...then ice accrual will be much lighter/non-existent). Due to combined effects of snow and ice...will upgrade the advisory for much of the Piedmont into the central coastal plain to a Winter Storm Warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Heavy Snow at AKH!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canes2614 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 jburns looks like people are about to get caught off guard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 How far east does west nc go? haha i was just looking at hky and avl's ruc data. it showed some convective precip. i'll checkout rdu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 351 AM EST MON JAN 10 2011 ...CRIPPLING WINTER STORM IMPACTING THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... QC, now that is a header you do not see to ofter in the SE..... love it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 351 AM EST MON JAN 10 2011 ...CRIPPLING WINTER STORM IMPACTING THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... . * TEMPERATURES...25 TO 30 DEGREES THROUGHOUT THE STORM. BAMN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacizzle Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 jburns looks like people are about to get caught off guard. As from my profile you can see I am new and have not posted a lot....but I want to give a very deserving "that a boy" to Foothills and his forecast. Seems you were spot on here again, as you were with the Christmas storm. From now on, I know the only place I am going for my winter weather forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 haha i was just looking at hky and avl's ruc data. it showed some convective precip. i'll checkout rdu. ruc looks like solid 1-2inches for rdu. show's convective ip/zr in the later stages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 BAMN That map is old and is from the morning update. The new one hasn't come out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 That map is old and is from the morning update. The new one hasn't come out yet. keep resfreshing...it's there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 thanks cause it is all there. I assume GSP also took into account the punch of dry air I see on the radar now... keep resfreshing...it's there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 keep resfreshing...it's there. I'm refreshing and i'm still getting the old one that shows 6.3 inches for downtown Greenville. Is that what yours shows for downtown Greenville? If so, then it's the old map from the earlier update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 try this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Ahhh...that works. Thanks man. Not sure why it wasn't coming up on their website for me. And 10.4? Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'm refreshing and i'm still getting the old one that shows 6.3 inches for downtown Greenville. Is that what yours shows for downtown Greenville? If so, then it's the old map from the earlier update. Clear you cache. Yea, that dryslot is worrying me a little bit. However, what robert is saying about the 850mb flow should keep precip building on top of us throughout the morning I think. There is also some heavy returns moving through western GA that should only expand as they move northeast. I haven't been out in about 20 minutes but I probably am up to at least 4.5 now. I absolutely love the way this snow is falling, it's just beautiful!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Good point with the 850's. Got me worried a little also. Clear you cache. Yea, that dryslot is worrying me a little bit. However, what robert is saying about the 850mb flow should keep precip building on top of us throughout the morning I think. There is also some heavy returns moving through western GA that should only expand as they move northeast. I haven't been out in about 20 minutes but I probably am up to at least 4.5 now. I absolutely love the way this snow is falling, it's just beautiful!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stinky Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I can't see my car in the driveway it's snowing so hard..... And I have to go to work. FML Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 \ BAMN OMG where is lilj after fretting about that map when they reduced it the other day holy smokes. robert might have been right all along, ne ga gets 10-12" of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 All right we someone on this board to post some pictures of a FOOT PLUS! Not happen up North, pulling for ya! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 All right we someone on this board to post some pictures of a FOOT PLUS! Not happen up North, pulling for ya! no but you may be surprised at what you do get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 All right we someone on this board to post some pictures of a FOOT PLUS! Not happen up North, pulling for ya! not a foot, but 1/2 a foot with drifts, its half way there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 the 6z nam is so much colder than the RUC at the time frame. It keeps CLT to GSP close to -3 for a while and subzero the whole event through 24 more hours.. It also upped qpf. The RUC changes upstate over around 7 pm, but I guess most of the good stuff will be over by then anyway. I get the feeling all models have been playing catch up to this storm for days now. Just makes me think that someone in western SC and southern NC will also top the 12" mark. I'm pretty sure part of Ne GA will do it. (thats my groundzero) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCTechster Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I hope that it is ok that I post this.... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 425 AM EST MON JAN 10 2011 ...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM EXPECTED ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY INTO TUESDAY... .WITH COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING... THEN NORTHEASTWARD UP THE SOUTHEAST AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC COASTS LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TODAY...THEN TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. NCZ021>025-038>042-076>078-088-089-101730- /O.UPG.KRAH.WW.Y.0002.110110T1200Z-110111T2100Z/ /O.EXB.KRAH.WS.W.0001.110110T1200Z-110111T2100Z/ FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM- WAKE-JOHNSTON-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO... HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...CHAPEL HILL...DURHAM...LEXINGTON... ASHEBORO...PITTSBORO...RALEIGH...SMITHFIELD...SANF RD... LILLINGTON...GOLDSBORO...FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON 425 AM EST MON JAN 10 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS UPGRADED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY. * PRECIPITATION TYPES: SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS LATER THIS MORNING...THEN CONTINUE NORTHWARD INTO THE TRIANGLE AND SURROUNDING AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET THIS EVENING...THEN TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT. THE FREEZING RAIN WILL TAPER TO LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TUESDAY. * ACCUMULATION: STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED... WITH THE MOST TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE TRIANGLE AREA. STORM TOTAL FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. * TIMING: SNOW WILL BEGIN OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...INCLUDING THE TRIAD...AND OVER THE SANDHILLS BETWEEN 900 AM AND NOON...THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE TRIANGLE BETWEEN 100 PM AND 500 PM. SNOW...OR A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET...WILL TURN TO FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN 1000 PM AND 200 AM....BEFORE ENDING AS LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TUESDAY. * IMPACTS: ROADS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS WITH THE SNOWFALL ON TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. THE IMPACT OF SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS COULD LEAD TO DOWNED TREE LIMBS... DOWNED TREES... AND POWER LINES. THIS COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. ONLY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER. * TEMPERATURES: WILL REACH THE MID 30S BEFORE THE SNOW ARRIVES TODAY...THEN FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S AS SNOW BECOMES WIDESPREAD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO NEAR FREEZING TONIGHT...THEN RISE SLOWLY INTO THE LOWER 30S ON TUESDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCTechster Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Mesoscale Discussion 17< Previous MD MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0017 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0206 AM CST MON JAN 10 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AL...CNTRL GA...CNTRL SC CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 100806Z - 101400Z SIGNIFICANT WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE PHASE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MORNING WITH SIGNIFICANT ICING AND SLEET LIKELY. FREEZING RAIN RATES SHOULD AVERAGE 0.05 TO 0.10 IN/HR. A SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH INTENSE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PROFILES DEVELOPING INLAND ATOP A COLD AIR MASS. AT 07Z...THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE EXTENDED FROM MGM TO JUST N OF MCN AND INTO CNTRL SC. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE WET BULB ZERO LINE WAS MUCH FARTHER S SUGGESTING BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE ONCE PRECIPITATION BEGINS. THEREFORE...AREAS CURRENTLY JUST S OF THE FREEZING LINE WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN...WITH AREAS ALONG AND JUST N OF THE CURRENT FREEZING LINE EXPERIENCING THE LONGEST DURATION. TO THE N...SNOW ACROSS NRN GA AND INTO CNTRL SC MAY EVENTUALLY SWITCH OVER TO SLEET AS A WARM NOSE FORMS ALOFT...WITH ACCUMULATING SLEET POSSIBLE. ..JEWELL.. 01/10/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 So the dry air punch showing up on the radar is fine? I assume redevelopment like Burrel was taking about... the 6z nam is so much colder than the RUC at the time frame. It keeps CLT to GSP close to -3 for a while and subzero the whole event through 24 more hours.. It also upped qpf. The RUC changes upstate over around 7 pm, but I guess most of the good stuff will be over by then anyway. I get the feeling all models have been playing catch up to this storm for days now. Just makes me think that someone in western SC and southern NC will also top the 12" mark. I'm pretty sure part of Ne GA will do it. (thats my groundzero) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Weird modified discussion from RAH since verbatim 1-3" snow and 0.1" ice are not WSW criteria and is the same as what was forecast earlier under the WWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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