FoothillsNC Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I don't recall ever seeing what the RUC is forecasting the last few runs. It has strengthening 850 flow, increasing from 20 to 30 to 40 and even 50 knts aimed right at northern Ga and western SC all night and through the next 14 hours or so, only waning very late. Even without an 850 low, its the same as having one, in this unique setup thanks to that western trough coming in late, stalling our comma head. But the whole time its an upslope flow, this may be what fights warm advection with the mid levels and keeps the column cold in areas along 85. The UVV's are still imressive. I'm thinking now aftter so many hours of these runs on RUC that nw SC and part of northern GA are going to go up to a foot or more of snow. The same is probably true around just south of AVL and Hendersonville to Lake Lure areas that will benefit from extra lift and keep the cold longest of all. I don't know about southern NC from CLT and Hickory regions as all models still start tapering just north of there, but obviously they've all missed the mark too. This is one storm that looks better and better as time gets near. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I don't recall ever seeing what the RUC is forecasting the last few runs. It has strengthening 850 flow, increasing from 20 to 30 to 40 and even 50 knts aimed right at northern Ga and western SC all night and through the next 14 hours or so, only waning very late. Even without an 850 low, its the same as having one, in this unique setup thanks to that western trough coming in late, stalling our comma head. But the whole time its an upslope flow, this may be what fights warm advection with the mid levels and keeps the column cold in areas along 85. The UVV's are still imressive. I'm thinking now aftter so many hours of these runs on RUC that nw SC and part of northern GA are going to go up to a foot or more of snow. The same is probably true around just south of AVL and Hendersonville to Lake Lure areas that will benefit from extra lift and keep the cold longest of all. I don't know about southern NC from CLT and Hickory regions as all models still start tapering just north of there, but obviously they've all missed the mark too. This is one storm that looks better and better as time gets near. Hmm...beginning to see an increase of precipitation near the extreme western FL panhandle that appears to be aiming NE for western SC and southern NC. That looks to have implications later Monday if I'm not mistaken. Your thoughts on that Robert? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaPilot Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Im right near the airport at KFFC..about 3 miles east. Temps have stabilized at about 28-29/ DP is 22 We have only had very light precip for the last 4-5 hours. Currently a very light and intermittent sleet/pellet mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Some impressive observations from Huntsville the last three hours. METAR KHSV 100353Z COR 09006KT 1/2SM R18R/3000V3500FT SN FZFG VV004 M03/M04 A3017 RMK AO2 SLP221 P0011 T10281039 SNINCR 1/0 METAR KHSV 100453Z 05009KT 1/4SM R18R/2000V2400FT +SN FZFG OVC002 M03/M04 A3015 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 1/2 SLP215 SNINCR 2/3 P0013 T10281039 SPECI KHSV 100545Z 07010G26KT 1/4SM R18R/1400V2200FT +TSSN FZFG OVC002CB M03/M03 A3013 RMK AO2 PK WND 06026/0541 TWR VIS 1/2 TSB44 OCNL LTGIC NE TS NE MOV NE P0020 They reported three inches between 9 and 11 PM. Currently reporting thundersnow with .20" precip as of 11:45, which means another 2-3 inches has fallen there in the last hour probably. The official METAR should be available momentarily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaPilot Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Scratch that ...currently 29/25 on my gear here..its pretty accurate. Wunderground saying 29/26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I don't recall ever seeing what the RUC is forecasting the last few runs. It has strengthening 850 flow, increasing from 20 to 30 to 40 and even 50 knts aimed right at northern Ga and western SC all night and through the next 14 hours or so, only waning very late. Even without an 850 low, its the same as having one, in this unique setup thanks to that western trough coming in late, stalling our comma head. But the whole time its an upslope flow, this may be what fights warm advection with the mid levels and keeps the column cold in areas along 85. The UVV's are still imressive. I'm thinking now aftter so many hours of these runs on RUC that nw SC and part of northern GA are going to go up to a foot or more of snow. The same is probably true around just south of AVL and Hendersonville to Lake Lure areas that will benefit from extra lift and keep the cold longest of all. I don't know about southern NC from CLT and Hickory regions as all models still start tapering just north of there, but obviously they've all missed the mark too. This is one storm that looks better and better as time gets near. I like how you are talking foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Some impressive observations from Huntsville the last three hours. METAR KHSV 100353Z COR 09006KT 1/2SM R18R/3000V3500FT SN FZFG VV004 M03/M04 A3017 RMK AO2 SLP221 P0011 T10281039 SNINCR 1/0 METAR KHSV 100453Z 05009KT 1/4SM R18R/2000V2400FT +SN FZFG OVC002 M03/M04 A3015 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 1/2 SLP215 SNINCR 2/3 P0013 T10281039 SPECI KHSV 100545Z 07010G26KT 1/4SM R18R/1400V2200FT +TSSN FZFG OVC002CB M03/M03 A3013 RMK AO2 PK WND 06026/0541 TWR VIS 1/2 TSB44 OCNL LTGIC NE TS NE MOV NE P0020 They reported three inches between 9 and 11 PM. Currently reporting thundersnow with .20" precip as of 11:45, which means another 2-3 inches has fallen there in the last hour probably. The official METAR should be available momentarily. Wow. 4 inches in the last hour at Huntsville. 7 inches in the last three hours. Heavy thundersnow continues. METAR KHSV 100553Z 06010G18KT 1/2SM R18R/1600V4500FT TSSN FZFG OVC002CB M03/M03 A3012 RMK AO2 PK WND 06026/0541 TSB44 SLP206 OCNL LTGIC NE TS NE MOV NE SNINCR 4/7 4/007 P0022 60047 T10281033 10006 21028 400061083 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 For those of you in North GA and western Carolinas, your gonna love the RUC @ hour 4. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/ruc/255/maps/2011/01/10/05/RUC_255_2011011005_F04_CREF_SURFACE.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Wow. 4 inches in the last hour at Huntsville. 7 inches in the last three hours. Heavy thundersnow continues. METAR KHSV 100553Z 06010G18KT 1/2SM R18R/1600V4500FT TSSN FZFG OVC002CB M03/M03 A3012 RMK AO2 PK WND 06026/0541 TSB44 SLP206 OCNL LTGIC NE TS NE MOV NE SNINCR 4/7 4/007 P0022 60047 T10281033 10006 21028 400061083 Geeze... looking at the radar. They could end up with 20 inches from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 according to this video, about 8 inches in Huntsville http://www.whnt.com/weather/whnt-live-snow-stick-embed-code,0,6373428.htmlstory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCTechster Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=ffc&wwa=local area emergency This is approaching epic for Alabama, virtually the entire northern half of the state is completely shut down. Its almost reminiscent of the Storm of the Century from March 1993 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Wow guys! I'm a New Englander invading your sub forum, but couldn't help but read some of your observations. Amazing night down there! Can't wait to see some pics tomorrow! Good luck and enjoy - From your friends up in Boston! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 @wxbrad Per NWS .....HERE IS SOME PRELIMINARY THINKING BASED ON A QUICK LOOK AT THE LATEST 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE. THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE NOW SHOWING A LOT MORE QPF...WITH ABOUT AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE SRN TIER MTNS. PRECIP ACCUMS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UP A BIT WITH THE PACKAGE LATER THIS MORNING. THE MODELS APPEARED TO INITIALIZE THE POTENT VORT LOBE WITH THE SRN STREAM WAVE OVER LA QUITE WELL EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE FIRST WAVE OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ASSOC WITH A BAND OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS NOW MOVING NWD INTO THE SRN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL MAXIMIZE CIRCA 12Z BEFORE MOVING E OF THE AREA TODAY. DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL ALSO BE MOST COHERENT THROUGH ABOUT 12Z THIS MORNING...WITH DEEPER QG FORCING THEN STEADILY SHUTTING OFF THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING. OMEGA WILL THEN TRANSITION TO LOWER LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY AS WARM ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE FORCING INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. STILL EXPECT THE STRONG MID LEVEL DRY SLOT TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE S AFTER 21Z THIS EVENING...AND STEADILY MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUE. FURTHER DETAILS ON ACCUM CHANGES WILL BE POSTED WITH THE REGULAR AFD A BIT LATER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tngirl Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Question for someone with much better knowledge than I have regarding this storm. Do you really think these heavy pockets will make it to Nashville or just a little south east of Nashville?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 part of the reason for the thundersnow is the 5H vort held together so much longer than any model predicted. Its now in central Mississippi, and its weakening finally . Still may have enough umph, combined with the low level jet, to get a few more thundersnows under its path across n. GA and the western Carolinas...depends on how quickly it dies out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 part of the reason for the thundersnow is the 5H vort held together so much longer than any model predicted. Its now in central Mississippi, and its weakening finally . Still may have enough umph, combined with the low level jet, to get a few more thundersnows under its path across n. GA and the western Carolinas...depends on how quickly it dies out. Pretty amazing stuff going on right now. I had actually wondered about parts of the SE seeing thundersnow so neat to see it going on. Would love for it to make it this way but not holding my breath. Looking at the radar it looks like the snow comes in at the perfect time for us to see some heavy stuff during the mid morning hours! Love it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 part of the reason for the thundersnow is the 5H vort held together so much longer than any model predicted. Its now in central Mississippi, and its weakening finally . Still may have enough umph, combined with the low level jet, to get a few more thundersnows under its path across n. GA and the western Carolinas...depends on how quickly it dies out. Still waiting for some snow to fall bro. Very light flurries attm. Hoping we get some heavy snow. I am wanting to have at least a coating on the ground before 7am, so I do not have to go to the office. Fingers crossed. It does look like it will be starting anytime now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Hawkins Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Just checking in. I measured about 9 inches here about 30 minutes ago. It continues to snow moderate to heavy at times. There has been some thunder around but i haven't personally heard it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Night folks, 0z ARW and NMM respectively, 48hr precip totals, will likely get screwed here on QPF given the setup, but congrats to those about to get thumped, enjoy!!! :snowman: GOM convection did not rob this one, it actually enhanced it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Still waiting for some snow to fall bro. Very light flurries attm. Hoping we get some heavy snow. I am wanting to have at least a coating on the ground before 7am, so I do not have to go to the office. Fingers crossed. It does look like it will be starting anytime now... once it starts you'll find more than a "coating" I think Atleast you have flurries. Still nothing here and I was thinking 2 am for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 :thumbsup:Here is a quick note from GSP:. NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion --HERE IS SOME PRELIMINARY THINKING BASED ON A QUICK LOOK AT THE LATEST 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE. THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE NOW SHOWING A LOT MORE QPF...WITH ABOUT AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE SRN TIER MTNS. PRECIP ACCUMS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UP A BIT WITH THE PACKAGE LATER THIS MORNING. THE MODELS APPEARED TO INITIALIZE THE POTENT VORT LOBE WITH THE SRN STREAM WAVE OVER LA QUITE WELL EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE FIRST WAVE OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ASSOC WITH A BAND OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS NOW MOVING NWD INTO THE SRN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL MAXIMIZE CIRCA 12Z BEFORE MOVING E OF THE AREA TODAY. DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL ALSO BE MOST COHERENT THROUGH ABOUT 12Z THIS MORNING...WITH DEEPER QG FORCING THEN STEADILY SHUTTING OFF THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING. OMEGA WILL THEN TRANSITION TO LOWER LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY AS WARM ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE FORCING INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. STILL EXPECT THE STRONG MID LEVEL DRY SLOT TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE S AFTER 21Z THIS EVENING...AND STEADILY MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUE. FURTHER DETAILS ON ACCUM CHANGES WILL BE POSTED WITH THE REGULAR AFD A BIT LATER. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 once it starts you'll find more than a "coating" I think Atleast you have flurries. Still nothing here and I was thinking 2 am for here. Dude...the Devil has me trapped in his triangle (an ode to Burger-LMAO..J/K). Flurries cannot cut it this go round. On another note, GSP put out a snippet saying they are going to up the totals. Again...great call. Seriously though...I hope the dryair in our area does not play into our totals. I know thats greedy, but we need a break and the barriers broken brother! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowflake29684 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Robert you should work for them you told us this what 3 days ago this would happen!!! :thumbsup:Here is a quick note from GSP:. NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion --HERE IS SOME PRELIMINARY THINKING BASED ON A QUICK LOOK AT THE LATEST 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE. THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE NOW SHOWING A LOT MORE QPF...WITH ABOUT AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE SRN TIER MTNS. PRECIP ACCUMS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UP A BIT WITH THE PACKAGE LATER THIS MORNING. THE MODELS APPEARED TO INITIALIZE THE POTENT VORT LOBE WITH THE SRN STREAM WAVE OVER LA QUITE WELL EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE FIRST WAVE OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ASSOC WITH A BAND OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS NOW MOVING NWD INTO THE SRN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL MAXIMIZE CIRCA 12Z BEFORE MOVING E OF THE AREA TODAY. DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL ALSO BE MOST COHERENT THROUGH ABOUT 12Z THIS MORNING...WITH DEEPER QG FORCING THEN STEADILY SHUTTING OFF THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING. OMEGA WILL THEN TRANSITION TO LOWER LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY AS WARM ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE FORCING INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. STILL EXPECT THE STRONG MID LEVEL DRY SLOT TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE S AFTER 21Z THIS EVENING...AND STEADILY MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUE. FURTHER DETAILS ON ACCUM CHANGES WILL BE POSTED WITH THE REGULAR AFD A BIT LATER. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Moore and Hoke counties now under a Winter Storm Warning in NC. Not too much farther to get to the Triangle.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I know this goes in obs, but it just began pouring! I have been peeking and typing, and wow at the sudden increase . BTW, RUC is awesome. I can't imagine it going til 7 pm tomorrow night here, but it shows that, with incoming divergence from Alabama, and the comma head STILL over here. Unreal if that happens, I won't bank on it though. Most events here are about 12 to 14 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacizzle Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I know this goes in obs, but it just began pouring! I have been peeking and typing, and wow at the sudden increase . BTW, RUC is awesome. I can't imagine it going til 7 pm tomorrow night here, but it shows that, with incoming divergence from Alabama, and the comma head STILL over here. Unreal if that happens, I won't bank on it though. Most events here are about 12 to 14 hours. Slide some of that "pouring" over towards Concord!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canes2614 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Hey foothills since the thread has slowed down, would you mind giving a call for GSO. Honestly I dont know what to think about this storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 never fails. going to bed and it's sleeting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Hey foothills since the thread has slowed down, would you mind giving a call for GSO. Honestly I dont know what to think about this storm lol I can give you the new graphical forecast. Tonight: Monday: Monday Night: Tuesday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.