DaculaWeather Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Looking at the big radar, we're going to be in this all night. I was thinking Ken Cook was crazy thinking 8 inches maybe, not so sure now. We're over 4", the dry slot filled in so plenty more on the way. I'm at 24.8 so plenty cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Anderson should be seeing heavy snow within the hour, GSP area by 1:30 and it looks like the band will be here by 3:00 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 8 hours? I would hope so. If you talk to Van Denton and Austin Caviness they both are real good however both will tell you they can't say much on the air in case it don't happen. I have met both and email Van all the time and he always expects more but won't say nothing on TV. I've seen Fish go against conventional wisdom and the models many times in the short range and is almost always correct. Several times it had to do with precip duration where the models predicted a longer period of precip and he said nope, it shuts off by ......... Really like Van, Austin, and Matthew. It quickly ends there. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I think (scratch, I know) I've been model hugging the RGEM, but it's now shown 7 straight runs of all snow from GSP to CLT. 00z RGEM loop is showing snow beginning in CLT around 3AM (which looks about right), with good snow still flying til 8PM tomorrow night. RGEM Loop And again it keeps that ice line right near CLT and has all areas N, NW, and W of the city all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Impressive stretch of cold weather coming up for Charlotte: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Anderson should be seeing heavy snow within the hour, GSP area by 1:30 and it looks like the band will be here by 3:00 or so. QC, yep that is my thinking too, if it is to you around 3am it should be hitting me around 3:30 so I'm going to get a little sleep so I can completely enjoy all my omega enhanced snow tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I've seen Fish go against conventional wisdom and the models many times in the short range and is almost always correct. Several times it had to do with precip duration where the models predicted a longer period of precip and he said nope, it shuts off by ......... Really like Van, Austin, and Matthew. It quickly ends there. TW I agree. I will have to say after this storm and Christmas, Robert may be the best met around. Not because he is on here but he has been dead on since I joined three years ago. He needs some limelight somewhere but we won't him to stay on here for us to. Hopefully this storm will hold true to what he has said. Off to bed, looks to be busy in the trucks for the next day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Virga is coming into NC rapidly. you can see the dark blue that dumped on Atlanta rapidly advancing NE. Should be to Burger and Robert by 1-2:00 a.m if not sooner,. There are better radars than this, I think people in NC are gonna be suprised how fast this begins to unfold. Models / NWS are way late with onset projections IMO http://www.accuweath...r.asp?play=true It still has to battle that dry air. It will be like hitting wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Impressive stretch of cold weather coming up for Charlotte: The hint is there again for friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Looking at the big radar, we're going to be in this all night. I was thinking Ken Cook was crazy thinking 8 inches maybe, not so sure now. We're over 4", the dry slot filled in so plenty more on the way. I'm at 24.8 so plenty cold. This is unbelievable.....if we can just hold out til morning on the sleet, and those band in eastern Alabama hold together, Monday morning will be a sight to behold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I've seen Fish go against conventional wisdom and the models many times in the short range and is almost always correct. Several times it had to do with precip duration where the models predicted a longer period of precip and he said nope, it shuts off by ......... Really like Van, Austin, and Matthew. It quickly ends there. TW Well since this thread has gone to crap I'll talk too...People tend to dislike Fish because he's on the conservative side, but most forget he LOVES SNOW...if he could wishcast he would. His Awards & Recognition say it all: 1985 American Meteorological Society award for broadcast excellence for reporting a March 1984 tornado; American Meteorological Society Seal of Approval for television and radio; member of broadcast board of the American Meteorological Society; chairperson of AMS Broadcast Board Committee to develop 100-question exam for new Certified Broadcast Meteorologist Program; member of Advisory Commissions for North Carolina Museum of Natural Sciences and the state Climate Office of North Carolina; first certified broadcast meteorologist in the United States; recipient of Emmy from Midsouth Region of the National Academy of Television Arts & Sciences for hurricane special in 2000; one of six recipients of Special Award from American Meteorological Society in 2006 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 You may not like what he says, but Fish is the best. He can be wrong though. His specialty is inside 8 hours. TW Well, I'll agree to disagree with you all you guys. I've lived in Raleigh all my life before moving to Charlotte this year. My friends/family and I always used to joke that we could flip a coin and be right more often than The Fish, in terms of winter weather. In fact, since I've been following the forums/learning more about storms from everybody on here, I dare say that even a joker like me has been right more times than The Fish. I know for a fact that Alan has been FAR more accurate than The Fish over the past few winters. Maybe his forecast will verify this time and I'll gladly eat crow, but I hope to be laughing at him once again tomorrow night. Obviously, I know his job is a very tough one, and his predictions can only be but so bold on TV. At least he openly admits he's a fellow snow lover! Back to this storm, it seems as if the intensity and expansiveness of the precip shield has been significantly underdone by the models IMO. Was anyone actually talking about rates of 2"+ an hour with this storm? Certainly not this early in N GA.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 It still has to battle that dry air. It will be like hitting wall. NEGA poster DP was 10, lower than ours just a moment ago and when those 20 dbz got over him it started pouring. They will be in Charlotte by 3;00 and up this way SW Randolph by 7:00ish at the latest as long as everything holds together. We'll see, Im moore certain in my 3-6, than exact start time. But something will have to change in order to prevent this looking at recent radar trends/obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NEGA poster DP was 10, lower than ours just a moment ago and when those 20 dbz got over him it started pouring. They will be in Charlotte by 3;00 and up this way SW Randolph by 7:00ish at the latest as long as everything holds together. We'll see, Im moore certain in my 3-6, than exact start time. But something will have to change in order to prevent this looking at recent radar trends/obs. Agree. I think the dry air issue may be overplayed. I've seen it make a difference in the past, but usually during the day when temps were able to warm just a bit allowing rh and dp to come down. I think the fact that by morning our rh will be up with precip knowing on the door will help us overcome the dry air issue a bit quicker, leading to better accumulations than forecast (generally 1-2" forecast now). I think 3-5 has just as good of a chance in the triad. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Are you getting an uneasy feeling about this one Jerms? I feel like we are golden starting around 3am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NEGA poster DP was 10, lower than ours just a moment ago and when those 20 dbz got over him it started pouring. They will be in Charlotte by 3;00 and up this way SW Randolph by 7:00ish at the latest as long as everything holds together. We'll see, Im moore certain in my 3-6, than exact start time. But something will have to change in order to prevent this looking at recent radar trends/obs. Keep in mind while the air here will be as dry the low will be weakening and throwing less moisture this far north. That will slow the northward progress of the precip and delay the start time IMO. It will also have an effect on totals as the upper atmosphere loses the dynamics later in the day. God I'm starting to sound like Widre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NEGA poster DP was 10, lower than ours just a moment ago and when those 20 dbz got over him it started pouring. They will be in Charlotte by 3;00 and up this way SW Randolph by 7:00ish at the latest as long as everything holds together. We'll see, Im moore certain in my 3-6, than exact start time. But something will have to change in order to prevent this looking at recent radar trends/obs. Well I had 20dbz over me for nearly 2 hours and didn't get a flake. It took 25 dbz to do it. You have to keep in mind he's up almost around 2000 feet too so lower elevations are going to take longer. This dry air was agrivating as hell here for a while. Was starting to think the radar was on drugs it took so long. Here's hky's sounding from the ruc. Deep layer of dry air. It will come though if this band holds together. Date: Analysis for 0300Z 10 JAN 11 Station: KHKY Latitude: 35.73 Longitude: -81.38 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 230 SFC 989 315 -2.7 -11.6 50 9.0 -5.3 344 2 271.3 271.6 268.5 275.7 1.58 2 950 636 -4.7 -15.9 41 11.2 -7.6 18 14 272.4 272.6 268.5 275.7 1.16 3 900 1059 -7.0 -19.7 36 12.7 -9.9 43 14 274.2 274.4 269.2 276.8 0.89 4 850 1504 -8.2 -22.9 30 14.7 -11.2 34 8 277.6 277.7 270.9 279.7 0.71 5 800 1975 -6.4 -28.3 16 21.8 -10.7 336 6 284.3 284.4 274.4 285.8 0.46 6 750 2481 -4.6 -33.9 8 29.3 -10.1 276 10 291.5 291.6 277.9 292.5 0.29 7 700 3024 -4.9 -26.0 17 21.1 -9.9 263 17 297.1 297.2 281.0 299.2 0.66 8 650 3604 -7.0 -21.2 31 14.3 -10.8 256 23 301.1 301.3 283.2 304.5 1.08 9 600 4225 -10.1 -18.7 50 8.5 -12.6 256 27 304.4 304.7 285.0 309.1 1.46 10 550 4891 -14.0 -20.4 59 6.3 -15.7 256 33 307.5 307.7 286.0 312.0 1 spc was a little behind this evening..never did address the heavy 2 to 3 inch per hour snowfall rates in georgia all evening until this update SOSCALE DISCUSSION 0016 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1056 PM CST SUN JAN 09 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL THROUGH SERN TN...NRN AL AND NRN GA THROUGH WRN SC AND SWRN NC CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 100456Z - 101000Z BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES LOCALLY 1-1.5 INCHES PER HOUR WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEWD THROUGH NE AL...NRN GA...S-CNTRL THROUGH SERN TN...SWRN NC AND WRN SC THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. SOME SLEET COULD MIX WITH THE SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF NRN AL AND NRN GA. STRONG SLY 60+ KT LLJ WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH AL AND GA INTO THE EARLY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EJECTING NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER MS. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS RESULTED IN BANDS OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW FROM NRN MS...NRN AL AND NRN GA INTO SRN TN. STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF STRONGER ASCENT HAVE RESULTED IN SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SNOW WHERE LIGHTNING HAS RECENTLY BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS NRN AL. RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRESENCE OF A DEEP QUASI-ISOTHERMAL LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES FROM 0 TO -5C BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 700 MB SUPPORTIVE OF AN EFFICIENT AGGREGATION PROCESS. ZONE OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL EXPAND NEWD WITH TIME...EVENTUALLY INTO SERN TN AND THE WRN CAROLINAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0015 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0827 PM CST SUN JAN 09 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AL...W CNTRL GA CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 100227Z - 100700Z MIXED PRECIP RATES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AL INTO W CNTRL GA. PRECIP TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE FZRA PRIMARILY S OF I-20...WITH A TRANSITION TO SLEET FURTHER NORTH. EARLY EVENING WV IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION...WITH REGIONAL RADARS INDICATING A BROAD PRECIP SHIELD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. PRECIP OVER E-CNTRL AL INTO W-CNTRL GA HAS BEEN SLOW TO ACCUMULATE THUS FAR DUE TO THE CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL ADVECTION OF COLD DRY AIR INTO THE REGION BY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WAS OBSERVED BETWEEN 09/18Z AND 10/00Z SOUNDINGS AT BMX AND FFC. AS PRECIP CONTINUES TO FALL...FURTHER MOISTENING WILL ALLOW RATES TO INCREASE...WITH HOURLY LIQUID EQUIVALENT AOA 0.05 IN/HR POSSIBLE BY 03Z-06Z. THE PRECIP SHIELD IS BEING DRIVEN BY UPGLIDE OVER THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DOME IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG 55-60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET...AS SAMPLED BY THE 00Z LIX SOUNDING. WHILE SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE MCD AREA...CONTINUED WAA IN THE 900-700 MB LAYER SHOULD ALLOW A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET LATER THIS EVENING...WITH FZRA BECOMING DOMINANT MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR LATER TONIGHT AFTER 06Z. A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT /AS NOTED ON WV IMAGERY/ WILL OVERTAKE THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING...BUT RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES /6.5-7 C/KM/ ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH CONTINUED STRONG WAA WILL ALLOW PRECIP OF A MORE CONVECTIVE NATURE TO DEVELOP...WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATES AOA 0.10 IN/HR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. ..DEAN.. 01/10/2011 ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MOB... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 CAE donut hole, about 3.5k' ILM filling in, about 7.5k' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Are you getting an uneasy feeling about this one Jerms? I feel like we are golden starting around 3am. The facepalm was a response to the previous post I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Seriously. Did the FFC go home for the night? Thought I'd check the latest forecast for my grid to see what I could expect to add to the six inches imby. Overnight: Occasional snow and sleet. Low around 25. East wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The facepalm was a response to the previous post I believe. 10-4 0z GFS is advertising 22:1 snow ratios at 15z tomorrow. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Also of note: GFS Bufkit says that KCLT doesnt change over until 3z tomorrow night(10PM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Also of note: GFS Bufkit says that KCLT doesnt change over until 3z tomorrow night(10PM). Sounds like it was in line with the 0z GGEM. We are all snow throughout Monday until the last bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The 0z Bufkits for RDU are atrocious. Hoping to just see the ground covered at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Sorry been slammed at work all day what did I miss!? hahaha well its obvious we are going to be seeing waay more than 4-6 here in NW GA. We already have over 2" in 45 MINUTES!!! This powdery fluffy snow is gonna add up quick! 6-12 may be on the conservative side? WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 dewpoint has shot up to 23 with the heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 10-4 0z GFS is advertising 22:1 snow ratios at 15z tomorrow. Wow. I assume you are talking about your area and mine. Thanks. I am going through my weenie fail bad feeling moment. Bear with me. Thankies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaPilot Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Heh.... FFC has called it perfectly so far...for anyone actually IN PEACHTREE CITY. Coating of sugar and light precip here, it will be all we end up with if it stays like this. Might end up with a half inch by the am unless some sort of band can get set up here in the next few hours. Looking at the radar I somehow doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Heh.... FFC has called it perfectly so far...for anyone actually IN PEACHTREE CITY. Coating of sugar and light precip here, it will be all we end up with if it stays like this. Might end up with a half inch by the am unless some sort of band can get set up here in the next few hours. Looking at the radar I somehow doubt it. Where are you at DP, looking at what is progged to come downstream based on radar, this is far from done for ATL... Know this may belong in the obs thread, but what are your thermals looking like atm? Edit: PEACHTREE CITY is still far from over in terms of winter wx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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