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The Jan 9-10 Storm Part 4


Cheeznado

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You are welcome. Tomorrow afternoon/evening. For Raleigh in particular around Rush Hour if not a little later. Tomorrow night and Tuesday morning will be a mess perhaps all day Tuesday, depening on if we can get a layer of snow/sleet down before the freezing rain comes.

It sure is going to be fun at work tomorrow. I hope the employers are smart and let people go home early before the roads become a mess at rush hour.

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We'll see how the precip holds together once it reaches our neck of the woods. The radar looks really good below us. I hope it holds out.

RUC looks good to me. The previous run was a monster with waves of UVV coming right up 85 and consistently redeveloping through 18 hours and we're below 0 the whole time. I'm fairly confident on a 6" snow through here, probably more in western SC with nearly a foot.

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RUC looks good to me. The previous run was a monster with waves of UVV coming right up 85 and consistently redeveloping through 18 hours and we're below 0 the whole time. I'm fairly confident on a 6" snow through here, probably more in western SC with nearly a foot.

has the RUC been accurate so far for this storm?

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RUC looks good to me. The previous run was a monster with waves of UVV coming right up 85 and consistently redeveloping through 18 hours and we're below 0 the whole time. I'm fairly confident on a 6" snow through here, probably more in western SC with nearly a foot.

Hopefully we will squeeze at least 4 inches here. Last year we were down in your area salting. If we don't get alot here we may be down there plowing. Got to stay here to make sure its under control before heading your way

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RUC looks good to me. The previous run was a monster with waves of UVV coming right up 85 and consistently redeveloping through 18 hours and we're below 0 the whole time. I'm fairly confident on a 6" snow through here, probably more in western SC with nearly a foot.

FYI: Got a couple of reliable posters in N GA over in the obs thread reporting 2 inch per hour rates. One had 4 inches in 2 hours.

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18z nam had .428 total for RDU, most recent 00z NAM has .409...biggest difference 00z NAM snow = .037", 18z NAM snow = .255" per the NCEP PTYPE graphs....I wonder if this run is an example of "the NCEP precip type scheme often misdiagnoses marginally sub-freezing snow- supporting temperature profiles as sleet or rain"

Edit: Actually I took a better look and RDU is flirting with the 0c line by the time precip arrives this run so this graphic may be right.

The problem is that right after the precip arrives there isn't enough moisture in the dendritic growth zone in the upper atmosphere. So all of the precip falling is in the form of super cooled water droplets forming just below this preferred growth layer.

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FYI: Got a couple of reliable posters in N GA over in the obs thread reporting 2 inch per hour rates. One had 4 inches in 2 hours.

I'm about 35 miles NE of Atlanta...it's been snowing for exactly an hour give or take a few minutes and we've got about 2 & 1/2 inches already....for about 20 minutes when the heaviest band came through you could barely see across the street. It was pretty amazing. If we do get further redevelopment all night, this could be a monster.

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latest rtm map has the surface low just south of new orleans.

time sensitive link...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/rtma/hr4/images/rtma_wnd_loul.gif

most mod's have it quite a bit south of there. not really shocked it's further north. the rtm map matches up with the upper low much better than a SLP down in the north central gulf.

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RUC looks good to me. The previous run was a monster with waves of UVV coming right up 85 and consistently redeveloping through 18 hours and we're below 0 the whole time. I'm fairly confident on a 6" snow through here, probably more in western SC with nearly a foot.

We hold those strong omegas for a while tomorrow on the latest RUC. Excellent!

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I don't see how all this precip is just going to dissipate before reaching the Triangle. I can't stand Greg Fishel, and think he is completely underestimating this storm. I honestly feel like over half of this forum could do his job better than he does. Rant over.

We've got a high pressure sitting right on top of us and along with that a bunch of dry air to overcome. It's going to be difficult for a weakening upper level feature to overcome this dry air.

Fishel is one of the best tv mets in the business.

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We've got a high pressure sitting right on top of us and along with that a bunch of dry air to overcome. It's going to be difficult for a weakening upper level feature to overcome this dry air.

Fishel is one of the best tv mets in the business.

I agree

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You may not like what he says, but Fish is the best. He can be wrong though. His specialty is inside 8 hours.

TW

8 hours? I would hope so. If you talk to Van Denton and Austin Caviness they both are real good however both will tell you they can't say much on the air in case it don't happen. I have met both and email Van all the time and he always expects more but won't say nothing on TV.

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